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The Big Picture

Our Wins Of The Week

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The Big Picture
May 10, 2026
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As the midterm elections approach, Democratic voters are leading the way in enthusiasm.

According to CNN’s Harry Enten, Democrats now lead Republicans in the “certain to vote” category for the first time since they began tracking it in 2010.

Even back in 2018, when there was a huge blue wave, Democrats and Republicans were tied.

This level of enthusiasm was on display on Tuesday in Ohio, where Democrats elected their nominees for U.S. Senate and Governor.

Even without contested primaries in those races, Democratic turnout in Ohio was through the roof.

Representing a huge uptick in enthusiasm since four years ago.

X avatar for @ZhouJaron
Jaron Zhou@ZhouJaron
The Ohio primaries tonight are another example of how different the environment is vs 2022! Dems and GOP are almost even in turnout tonight. In 2022, Republicans outvoted Dems by more than 2 to 1.
4:11 AM · May 6, 2026 · 38.6K Views

3 Replies · 8 Reposts · 70 Likes

This enthusiasm is translating to great news for Democrats in the betting markets…

X avatar for @allenanalysis
Brian Allen@allenanalysis
🚨 Amy Acton just won the Democratic primary for Ohio Governor. She’s a 53% favorite to beat Vivek Ramaswamy in November. The same Ohio that Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Democrats are playing offense now.
1:44 AM · May 6, 2026 · 55.9K Views

79 Replies · 558 Reposts · 3.21K Likes

…On the generic congressional ballot, where more polls have Dems ahead by double digits…

X avatar for @PpollingNumbers
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers
New - Generic Ballot poll 🔵 Democrats 50% (+9) 🔴 Republicans 41% Last poll - Democrats +4 RMG #B - RV - 5/6
1:48 PM · May 8, 2026 · 129K Views

41 Replies · 330 Reposts · 2.88K Likes

…In election prediction ratings, which are shifting toward Dems…

Just a reminder that our Tuesday and Thursday content is free for all readers.
If you missed this week’s pieces, please check out John Roberts Launched This War Four Decades Ago and Republicans Shouldn’t Celebrate Trump’s Indiana Wins Quite Yet.
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