Terror begets more terror, and after the expected violent reprisals within Gaza by the IDF, both sides will yet gain count their dead and an exhausted and uneasy calm will fall over Israel and the Occupied Territories. But, make no mistake about it, the terror-counter-terror cycles will continue absent a definitive peace agreement and an independent Palestine. Israel and Arab states can sign all the treaties they want, but in no way can the parties set aside or ignore the Palestinian cause. Seventy-five years and counting, and still no solution, all the while the body-counts continue to mount up. Where is reason when it is so desperately needed.
Such a claim would require solid evidence, and so far I have only seen conjecture. It may have happened, but that meeting was very long ago, and it doesn’t seem connected.
Plus, I believe that gives TFG way too much credit for his ability to “orchestrate” anything. He’s just not that smart. And what would be in it for him? (You know that has to be said.)
"Once the Arab world sees both that Hamas can strike at Israel, even from within Gaza, and that Israel will respond with devastating, disproportionate collective punishment, it will be nearly impossible for any more Arab nations to recognize Israel diplomatically. "
^^^^There you go. This is the heart of the matter and has been since the UN put the state of Israel into the middle of Palestinian territory without a thought to the sensibilities of those displaced. In 1948. The region has not been stable for millennia, and this latest event has only made the situation worse.
"Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” he told a meeting of his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”
Crux of the matter at hand...not only did the Israeli security agencies aid in the formation of Hamas - as a way to neutralize Arafat and Fatah - but also use Hamas/Gaza as a hedge against EVER confronting the "two-state solution" to 75 years of continuous war and occupation. Saturday, Hamas yet again fulfilled their part of the bargain.
The story of Israel and the Palestinians is truly a "both sides" story. Both sides have historically done "bad" things to each other. Both sides have historically done things to make a difficult situation worse. Both sides have factions that are primarily responsible for all of this – responsible for provoking and perpetrating "bad" things. Both sides also have factions that would just like to get along, live and let live. All factions on both sides suffer terribly when things blow up as they just have – again.
It is essentially impossible for the "live and let live" factions to help develop and maintain any lasting resolutions and peaceful coexistence due to the constant state of fear and frequent provocations perpetrated by the most disagreeable factions.
As in many if not most difficult cross-cultural relationships, there is a political advantage to the perpetrators of "bad" things – they can use the fear and the incursions from the other side to justify the need for them to be in power and to continue their policies – policies which serve both to "protect and defend" and to perpetuate the difficult situation that helps them stay in power. And the "support" for either side from other countries – each with their own complex agendas – only serves to complicate and expand the difficulties, the strife, and the suffering far beyond the borders of Israel and Palestine. We all suffer.
The harder issue is, neither side would ever admit that they have done as bad or worse than the other. That will be even harder after the weekend’s attacks and the reprisal.
Of course. Each side always thinks the other is worse. And that thinking feeds the fear and adds to the suffering which helps keep the more militant faction (which encourages and feeds off of such thinking) in power to continue perpetrating the worst they can dish out, which helps inspire retaliation with the worst that the more militant faction on the other side can dish out. And on and on it goes....
"In the wake of the attacks, the White House understands it must voice full support and do everything it can publicly to back Israel, even after very recently criticizing Netanyahu for moving anti-democratically against the nation’s judiciary and for indulging the kind of right-wing extremists the White House condemns..."
The White House may not have a Netanyahu problem for long, considering it's now apparent that Netanyahu had prior warning of the attack and did nothing. His government will likely fall sooner rather than later so the Court question will no longer be a problem. I can't imagine whoever replaces him will continue down the same path.
It is the immediacies of the hostilities that Netanyahu sought & embraces, because that will, against all reason, keep him in power. Do you not think he had a hand in all of this? His primary goal is to stay in power — at any cost. Remind you of anyone we know?
I thank and congratulate you, Jay, for doing what you always do but doing it way outside your (several) areas of expertise. You are an amazingly quick study, and you have managed to distill some incredibly complex, controversial, and rabbit-hole-filled material with clarity, balance, and elegance.
As with any crisis, there are opportunities here if the key leaders and their peoples - backed by the international community - proceed wisely once the dust clears. A two-state solution is the only possible outcome that might insure that such atrocities and injustices never happen again and that the deaths of so many innocent people on both sides of the conflict will not have been in vain. That all may sound like so much platitudinous fluff, but I believe it is the only meaningful solution.
I am trying to provide as unbiased and dispassionate a summary as possible, but to many on both sides, I have betrayed their cause. This is an understandable and regrettably unavoidable consequence for my willingness to speak about this subject, and I endeavor to accept the incoming fire and criticism with compassion and understanding.
I was disappointed with your initial post about the conflict because it did seem one sided but I think you took all the feedback to heart and did much better with this post. It is a very emotional and complicated issue.
I have been reading discussions that this attack on Israel benefits Putin and his mission to stop support for Ukraine. It seems that this initiative has been successful because first he gets Trump to make it the mission to stop Republicans from supporting aid to Ukraine, and then a timely action from Hamas, whom we know could have received intelligence on Israel from Russia after it was received from Trump. So, now that we are supportive of Israel "defending itself" by going all out in attacking Gaza, in search for Hamas (all though I doubt this will lead to peace in the middle east, just the opposite in fact), Ukrainians are wondering why the USA and the EU support Israel in attacking Gaza, but not Ukraine in attacking Russia. We can say each situation is different, but the reality on the ground is that Ukrainians feel they could more properly defend themselves if they could get support for attacking Russians where they live. I am clear that we want to deescalate the situation between Russia and Ukraine, why do we not want to deescalate the situation between Israel and Hamas? Both could be never ending wars. Who benefits from that?
It’s unclear what hand if any Russia had in this. While it may benefit Putin, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he had a direct hand in it. There are many people this conflict benefits, and many more that it harms.
Probably not. There usually are foreigners fighting on all sides of a war, for all kinds of reasons. Just as there are probably foreigners fighting on the Israeli side (and on the Russian side and the Ukrainian side in the other big war).
And if it is in fact an international terrorist organization, why pound the local population who aren't part of it, any more than one would bomb flat any country where ISIS has a strong presence.
That's an excellent point. I think it comes down to emotions. "We can terrorize you more than you can terrorize us". Just as the US lashed out at totally innocent people, Muslims, and a country that had nothing to do with it.
The really bad thing is that this type of mutual hatred tends to survive for centuries or even millennia.
And the really, really bad thing is that Israel has the nuclear bomb, and Hamas may also have access to it via Iran.
Respectfully, have you forgotten about Afghanistan, Iraq, and arguably Syria?
Those countries saw a lot of death and destruction because of their alleged (in some cases) support of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
For the record, I’m very much against shutting off the food, water, medical, and other essentials for survival. Israel has a right to defend its self, but that’s going too far.
Afghanistan and Iraq are constantly on my mind. But though our intervention caused vast destruction there, it wasn't and attempt to completely destroy the country. And the targeted elimination of various higher ups of the organization was far more effective than the two wars.
Every morning I wake up hoping that stupid shut off of water et. al. is over. Haven't checked today yet.
I guess what it is boiling down to a difference between "defend yourself" and "avenge yourself."
You're asking if this is the biblically predicted war that US evangelicals are waiting for? That war will never come. But US evangelicals seem to like the sound of guns going off, so any war might please them.
The unspoken message: When things appear to be going very, very well, rest assured they are going to get very, very worse. Peace is that ever-seductive myth played out in the blood of the innocents.
"Israel will retaliate to a greater degree than it has before, potentially leading to outcomes we haven’t seen before: not just a simple razing of Gaza by airplanes but also a ground incursion and potential reoccupation of parts of Gaza."
This, sadly, is currently the most likely outcome. I can't see a Scenario where Israel will let Hamas, and Gaza, retain any offensive capability at all.
It's more likely, IMHO, that they will forcibly relocate all Palestinians in Gaza to the West Bank and annex the entirety of Gaza once and for all.
There may well be individuals within Israeli leadership that might advocate this, but there would be two things holding them back. First, the Israeli people wouldn't stand for it. And second, when the atrocity is that blatant, Israel would lose the power of the mantra "if Israel does it, it's OK, and if you disagree, you are an anti-semite".
The US spent trillions of dollars on brutal wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11.
The Israelis see this as their 9/11.
I think that "proportional response" looks very different to the Israelis than it does to people in the West.
If you've suffered from a low-to-moderate intensity border war for decades and then incur a 9/11-alike "act of war" proportionality isn't a return to the rockets, artillery and company-level engagements of the past. They have been very clear - this isn't just a "terrorist attack", it's "war". Hamas must cease to exist as a threat, and I don't see them settling for a negotiated peace agreement either.
In the mid-term, this will lead to the fall of Netanyahu and it's an open question to whether the replacement government will be more moderate or more extreme.
I don’t see that as happening. I think the original wish of the Palestinians will come true, in reverse. Instead of driving the Yahud (Arabic for Jews) into the Sea (Mediterranean), I think Israel will tell the Arabic world take them or we kill them unless perhaps they swear on a Quoran to be friends to Israel. Even then I don’t think Israel will allow the threat to live within their borders. Egypt and Jordan, who do not want these troublemakers, may have to make their choice explicit now. I see no way forward without a bloodbath.
Terror begets more terror, and after the expected violent reprisals within Gaza by the IDF, both sides will yet gain count their dead and an exhausted and uneasy calm will fall over Israel and the Occupied Territories. But, make no mistake about it, the terror-counter-terror cycles will continue absent a definitive peace agreement and an independent Palestine. Israel and Arab states can sign all the treaties they want, but in no way can the parties set aside or ignore the Palestinian cause. Seventy-five years and counting, and still no solution, all the while the body-counts continue to mount up. Where is reason when it is so desperately needed.
What’s the likelihood that 45 orchestrated this by revealing Israeli Defense Plans to Russia? WHO benefits? Putin Trump Iran
Such a claim would require solid evidence, and so far I have only seen conjecture. It may have happened, but that meeting was very long ago, and it doesn’t seem connected.
Plus, I believe that gives TFG way too much credit for his ability to “orchestrate” anything. He’s just not that smart. And what would be in it for him? (You know that has to be said.)
It seems that it was also very long ago that the planning for this operation started.
"Once the Arab world sees both that Hamas can strike at Israel, even from within Gaza, and that Israel will respond with devastating, disproportionate collective punishment, it will be nearly impossible for any more Arab nations to recognize Israel diplomatically. "
^^^^There you go. This is the heart of the matter and has been since the UN put the state of Israel into the middle of Palestinian territory without a thought to the sensibilities of those displaced. In 1948. The region has not been stable for millennia, and this latest event has only made the situation worse.
"Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” he told a meeting of his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.”
Crux of the matter at hand...not only did the Israeli security agencies aid in the formation of Hamas - as a way to neutralize Arafat and Fatah - but also use Hamas/Gaza as a hedge against EVER confronting the "two-state solution" to 75 years of continuous war and occupation. Saturday, Hamas yet again fulfilled their part of the bargain.
"War does not determine who
is right - only who is left."
-Bertrand Russell
I wrote this a couple of days ago—
The story of Israel and the Palestinians is truly a "both sides" story. Both sides have historically done "bad" things to each other. Both sides have historically done things to make a difficult situation worse. Both sides have factions that are primarily responsible for all of this – responsible for provoking and perpetrating "bad" things. Both sides also have factions that would just like to get along, live and let live. All factions on both sides suffer terribly when things blow up as they just have – again.
It is essentially impossible for the "live and let live" factions to help develop and maintain any lasting resolutions and peaceful coexistence due to the constant state of fear and frequent provocations perpetrated by the most disagreeable factions.
As in many if not most difficult cross-cultural relationships, there is a political advantage to the perpetrators of "bad" things – they can use the fear and the incursions from the other side to justify the need for them to be in power and to continue their policies – policies which serve both to "protect and defend" and to perpetuate the difficult situation that helps them stay in power. And the "support" for either side from other countries – each with their own complex agendas – only serves to complicate and expand the difficulties, the strife, and the suffering far beyond the borders of Israel and Palestine. We all suffer.
The harder issue is, neither side would ever admit that they have done as bad or worse than the other. That will be even harder after the weekend’s attacks and the reprisal.
Of course. Each side always thinks the other is worse. And that thinking feeds the fear and adds to the suffering which helps keep the more militant faction (which encourages and feeds off of such thinking) in power to continue perpetrating the worst they can dish out, which helps inspire retaliation with the worst that the more militant faction on the other side can dish out. And on and on it goes....
"In the wake of the attacks, the White House understands it must voice full support and do everything it can publicly to back Israel, even after very recently criticizing Netanyahu for moving anti-democratically against the nation’s judiciary and for indulging the kind of right-wing extremists the White House condemns..."
The White House may not have a Netanyahu problem for long, considering it's now apparent that Netanyahu had prior warning of the attack and did nothing. His government will likely fall sooner rather than later so the Court question will no longer be a problem. I can't imagine whoever replaces him will continue down the same path.
There certainly seems to be strong pressures to oust him when the immediacy of the hostilities is over.
It is the immediacies of the hostilities that Netanyahu sought & embraces, because that will, against all reason, keep him in power. Do you not think he had a hand in all of this? His primary goal is to stay in power — at any cost. Remind you of anyone we know?
I thank and congratulate you, Jay, for doing what you always do but doing it way outside your (several) areas of expertise. You are an amazingly quick study, and you have managed to distill some incredibly complex, controversial, and rabbit-hole-filled material with clarity, balance, and elegance.
As with any crisis, there are opportunities here if the key leaders and their peoples - backed by the international community - proceed wisely once the dust clears. A two-state solution is the only possible outcome that might insure that such atrocities and injustices never happen again and that the deaths of so many innocent people on both sides of the conflict will not have been in vain. That all may sound like so much platitudinous fluff, but I believe it is the only meaningful solution.
Thanks for a factual, unbiased summary. These are indeed scary times.
I am trying to provide as unbiased and dispassionate a summary as possible, but to many on both sides, I have betrayed their cause. This is an understandable and regrettably unavoidable consequence for my willingness to speak about this subject, and I endeavor to accept the incoming fire and criticism with compassion and understanding.
I was disappointed with your initial post about the conflict because it did seem one sided but I think you took all the feedback to heart and did much better with this post. It is a very emotional and complicated issue.
I have been reading discussions that this attack on Israel benefits Putin and his mission to stop support for Ukraine. It seems that this initiative has been successful because first he gets Trump to make it the mission to stop Republicans from supporting aid to Ukraine, and then a timely action from Hamas, whom we know could have received intelligence on Israel from Russia after it was received from Trump. So, now that we are supportive of Israel "defending itself" by going all out in attacking Gaza, in search for Hamas (all though I doubt this will lead to peace in the middle east, just the opposite in fact), Ukrainians are wondering why the USA and the EU support Israel in attacking Gaza, but not Ukraine in attacking Russia. We can say each situation is different, but the reality on the ground is that Ukrainians feel they could more properly defend themselves if they could get support for attacking Russians where they live. I am clear that we want to deescalate the situation between Russia and Ukraine, why do we not want to deescalate the situation between Israel and Hamas? Both could be never ending wars. Who benefits from that?
It’s unclear what hand if any Russia had in this. While it may benefit Putin, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he had a direct hand in it. There are many people this conflict benefits, and many more that it harms.
I have a question that I haven't seen asked, and might affect the total analysis of this crisis.
The Israelis now have a number of Hamas bodies. Are they all Palestinian?
If there aren't "jihadist' mercenaries involved, I'll subscribe to Putin's newsletter instead of Jay's.
yep wondering about which proportions of what.
An interesting question for sure
Probably not. There usually are foreigners fighting on all sides of a war, for all kinds of reasons. Just as there are probably foreigners fighting on the Israeli side (and on the Russian side and the Ukrainian side in the other big war).
And if it is in fact an international terrorist organization, why pound the local population who aren't part of it, any more than one would bomb flat any country where ISIS has a strong presence.
That's an excellent point. I think it comes down to emotions. "We can terrorize you more than you can terrorize us". Just as the US lashed out at totally innocent people, Muslims, and a country that had nothing to do with it.
The really bad thing is that this type of mutual hatred tends to survive for centuries or even millennia.
And the really, really bad thing is that Israel has the nuclear bomb, and Hamas may also have access to it via Iran.
Respectfully, have you forgotten about Afghanistan, Iraq, and arguably Syria?
Those countries saw a lot of death and destruction because of their alleged (in some cases) support of Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.
For the record, I’m very much against shutting off the food, water, medical, and other essentials for survival. Israel has a right to defend its self, but that’s going too far.
Afghanistan and Iraq are constantly on my mind. But though our intervention caused vast destruction there, it wasn't and attempt to completely destroy the country. And the targeted elimination of various higher ups of the organization was far more effective than the two wars.
Every morning I wake up hoping that stupid shut off of water et. al. is over. Haven't checked today yet.
I guess what it is boiling down to a difference between "defend yourself" and "avenge yourself."
Such a complex situation. Thank you for the explanation.
Is this the war evangelicals are waiting for?
You're asking if this is the biblically predicted war that US evangelicals are waiting for? That war will never come. But US evangelicals seem to like the sound of guns going off, so any war might please them.
How do evangelicals coexist with white supremacists, etc within the same political party?
I believe so
The unspoken message: When things appear to be going very, very well, rest assured they are going to get very, very worse. Peace is that ever-seductive myth played out in the blood of the innocents.
Yep. Ya gotta be careful saying “things are going really well”, almost like the kiss of death. I think that’s where “knock on wood” comes in.
"Israel will retaliate to a greater degree than it has before, potentially leading to outcomes we haven’t seen before: not just a simple razing of Gaza by airplanes but also a ground incursion and potential reoccupation of parts of Gaza."
This, sadly, is currently the most likely outcome. I can't see a Scenario where Israel will let Hamas, and Gaza, retain any offensive capability at all.
It's more likely, IMHO, that they will forcibly relocate all Palestinians in Gaza to the West Bank and annex the entirety of Gaza once and for all.
I don't think that is going to happen. What you are describing would be ethnic cleansing, and I trust that Israel would be above that.
I don’t have such faith.
There may well be individuals within Israeli leadership that might advocate this, but there would be two things holding them back. First, the Israeli people wouldn't stand for it. And second, when the atrocity is that blatant, Israel would lose the power of the mantra "if Israel does it, it's OK, and if you disagree, you are an anti-semite".
The US spent trillions of dollars on brutal wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11.
The Israelis see this as their 9/11.
I think that "proportional response" looks very different to the Israelis than it does to people in the West.
If you've suffered from a low-to-moderate intensity border war for decades and then incur a 9/11-alike "act of war" proportionality isn't a return to the rockets, artillery and company-level engagements of the past. They have been very clear - this isn't just a "terrorist attack", it's "war". Hamas must cease to exist as a threat, and I don't see them settling for a negotiated peace agreement either.
In the mid-term, this will lead to the fall of Netanyahu and it's an open question to whether the replacement government will be more moderate or more extreme.
I don’t see that as happening. I think the original wish of the Palestinians will come true, in reverse. Instead of driving the Yahud (Arabic for Jews) into the Sea (Mediterranean), I think Israel will tell the Arabic world take them or we kill them unless perhaps they swear on a Quoran to be friends to Israel. Even then I don’t think Israel will allow the threat to live within their borders. Egypt and Jordan, who do not want these troublemakers, may have to make their choice explicit now. I see no way forward without a bloodbath.
Thanks for this excellent summary of this terrible situation.
A Spiritual Nation . .
And Allah Akbar! attacks with Ferocity
out of Ancient savage animosity . .
And those once gassed and burned . .are
Obliged .. the wheel turns ..to Prove
they too are capable .. of Atrocities . . .
# and(?) Lions with a Land Based Religion ..