Trump repeatedly stated he would impose tariffs during the campaign. His gross ignorance on the topic was on display at the Chicago Economic Club. In ordinary times this shit show alone would have been disqualifying. His language that our trading partners will “pay” these tariffs again shows his utter lack of understanding. This is an excellent article but I personally don’t see the point in trying to find any grand strategy in Trump’s threats. I think the explanation is simple: He’s always been an ignoramus and now he’s demented as well.
I'm sure there are members of Dumpy's staff who've tried to explain to him how tariffs work. But I think Dumpy gets an idea in his head and simply stops listening to anything else. He doesn't care. He is the Almighty, the greatest whatever who ever lived, and that's it. He's always right.
Considering he granted tariff exemptions in his first round and they were more likely to be granted if the company was Republican friendly in their financial support, he knows damn well how they work. He's granting exceptions to businesses here not overseas. He's just a horrible president who thinks he can bully his way through everything.
JVL, writing on the Bulwark, lays it out: First, hand out EOs first day in office announcing all those promised tariffs "will be imposed because...yadda-yadda"; let a few weeks go by as FoxNews and the right-wing megaphone praise tRump to the skies, while the "establishment", through their respective organs, go nutz; then, after sucking all the oxygen out of the room, tRump then announces that both Mexico and Canada "bowed" to his requests tied to the tariffs and "corrected" the "fentanyl and illegals problems", so he announces that the tariffs will be "on hold" pending continuation of "good behavior" by the targeted countries.
Sounds like we need to keep repeating, loudly, that those very problems have been significantly improved over the past 4 years, i.e. border crossings are significantly down at present and Fentanyl dosage has decreased. Can this be attributed to Harris' work with Mexico and the triangle? Also, majority of fentanyl is brought in by American citizens...
The audience there were supposedly business owners and CEOs, regardless if they actually were or weren't, a great many of them seemed to enjoy tRump "owning" the interviewer.
Call me petty, I’m 78 and being called names doesn’t bother me, but I hope all the people who voted for Trump clutch their pearls and die over the shock of how high prices are. I don’t plan to buy anything for a while and I hope that they suffer. I mean, really suffer! And then I think we need to flood the airways with talk about how the economy was doing great under Biden, but under Trump prices are higher than they’ve ever been.I really mean it when I say gloves off, let’s get our hands dirty!
I agree. Ours side has and has had a problem with getting our message out. News of the Biden administration’s successes has been drowned out by the right wing propaganda machine. It’s something that must be addressed and it will be much more difficult with the felon in power.
An important point about tariffs that is often neglected... When the price of imports goes up, domestically manufactured products lack the competition to keep prices low. Domestic producers raise prices too and pocket the winnings while consumers lose.
It’s like tariffs are that mysterious neighbor you never really see but hear all sorts of rumors about. Do you think people will start paying attention now that they’re making headlines again, or is it just one of those "we'll deal with it later" situations?
">>what Trump said he would do and what the voters elected him to do.<<"
ONLY HALF of the voters. This was NO mandate. NO landslide. And those voters may have a very rude and harsh awakening. Wait for that buyers' remorse to set in.
And sadly the buyers’ remorse will hurt the other half, who did not buy. Already you can see signs. I’ve read a couple reports from Latino voters, with illegals in their family who said, “Deport? I didn’t think he meant it.” Chickens are going to come home to roost.
The difference between Harris and Trump in total votes is just under 2.5 million. That is not even close to a mandate or a landslide. I await the screams of despair and horror among all those families who will see their loved ones deported; babies placed in cages -- again. Stephen Miller, the Goebbels of Trump world, is a sadist. He and those like him will turn this into an inhumane enterprise. They lust after cruel intentions and application. It is an angering factor that we who did not vote for the Republicans will also suffer at the hands of fools.
I really do believe that the MAGAts just aren't intelligent enough to understand any of it. On that basis, I don't think they understand that elections are for real and not some reality TV event. If you are down trodden enough, I guess you'll back the "strong man" who says all the things you are thinking. Even if the "strong man" is ancient, stupid, a felon, and has the mind of a third grader who can't recall what he said from on hour to the next.
As for those he is surrounding himself with? Their life span in politics is as long as the felon lives. I'd be honing my resumé if I were them. He's past his "sell by date."
To put a finer point on it: the difference was 230K votes in the 7 swing states. That’s 00.15% of the total number of votes cast nationally. Hardly what I’d call a “mandate”.
I think he could be in a WW II movie running a concentration camp. Looks just like I would picture that role. That’s what I meant by central casting in his case.
The irony is that Miller is a Jew. Just proves evil monsters come in every cloth and religion. I read somewhere that Miller was disowned by his family. It appears he found a "family" more to his cruel and sinister liking.
You are quite right, and I apologize for using the term. I’m a person of words, and I know they matter. This was a mistake on my part. I appreciate your correction.
Could we please use the term undocumented instead of illegals? First, no human is illegal, and second, according to US immigration law, being in the US without documentation is a civil misdemeanor, not a crime. It’s like a parking ticket, although you’re would never know that from the right wing rhetoric. Let’s not use their language.
I think that some companies are beginning to buy ahead so that they have inventory on hand. Those tariffs are a seriously bad idea. If T goes through with it, I hope that he get bitten on the gluteus maximus bigly.
There was a story floating around on Threads after the election about a company which cancelled the Christmas bonus to stock up on imported goods before the tariffs are coming. It was a good story but not sure if it is true. If true I just hope it hits the right people and they learn something from it. Remotely possible but not likely.
Seriously though, it’s definitely smart for companies to stock up—nothing like a little pre-tariff panic buying. But yeah, if these tariffs really hit hard, I can see a lot of businesses squirming. Do you think it’ll hurt more in the short term or are we in for a long haul of pain if they stick around?
I’ve already started stocking up on household goods, non-perishables, and needed electronic upgrades myself, so I can understand companies wanting to do the same. My goal is to buy as little as possible after 1/20/25.
That’s a smart move, being prepared always feels better than being caught off guard! 😅 I totally get why you’d want to stock up now and minimize buying later. It’s like getting ahead of the curve in case things go sideways. Do you have a strategy for what’s essential to buy, or are you just grabbing things as you go? Either way, sounds like you’re setting yourself up for peace of mind!
I’m trying to get things when they’re on sale and that we’ll use eventually, so it’s not just panic-buying. Who knows what the next 2020 toilet paper will be?
That’s the best strategy, getting what you’ll actually use and catching the sales when you can! No point in stocking up on stuff that just ends up collecting dust. 😂 And you're right, who knows what the next "toilet paper" item will be! Could be something as random as flour, batteries, or even pet food this time around. It’s like a game of supply chain roulette. Have you already thought about what might be the next big shortage, or are you just rolling with the punches for now?
A couple of thoughts. First, insofar as our halfwit president-elect is concerned, his prowess in negotiation is based on his bullying tactics. And insofar as his previously negotiated trade agreement with Canada and Mexico is on the books, any attempt to violate it or change the rules is pure T…p, smoke and mirrors to enhance his image among is supporters. If he throws out the gauntlet for tariffs and gets even a blink from our neighbors in Canada and Mexico he’ll turn what started out as a non-starter as a “win” and try and capitalize on it with his base. He’s a liar. Why should we expect anything less?
Second, and I hate to throw and a blanket description of the voters who put him into office, they were ignorant, self-serving misogynistic racists who wouldn’t understand an economic theory unless it were published in a “Dick and Jane” reader. That being said, if the tariffs go through - and it’s a wait and see issue right now - the T…p supporters’ expectations of lower prices at the grocery store will be blown to smithereens.
Great post today, Jay. Should be required reading in order to register to vote!
My understanding of trade is limited but from what you said and what I’ve read elsewhere this will have a big impact on the construction industry’s ability to plan if it actually happens or even if it leads foreign trading partners to hesitate to deal with US suppliers. As you said, a lot of our lumber comes from Canada. A US company trying to bid on a construction project can’t do so if they can’t reasonably forecast the cost of materials more than a couple month out, i.e. when Trump takes office. Between this and the threat to deport immigrants, this may gut the construction industry, based on data I saw yesterday claiming as many as half the workers may be undocumented or have immediate family members who are. This is one of the few sectors that haven’t been offshored since Reagan and those after him.
Thank you. There may be thousands of former construction workers who are now retired who'll find themselves in the same sad situation. And so the ripples begin...
That's just awful. I really hope he doesn't institute these tariffs and deportations. Maybe there will be such an outcry from business that he'll back down.
Consider that there may be a lag in the price increases if companies buy ahead to avoid the tariffs. The tariffs should be hitting hard around mid-year, when hurricane season starts. How long will folks have to wait for their houses to be repaired or replaced?
well there was the anti price gouging legislation that they tried to pass but got knocked down by the Repugs. I don't know how far reaching the bill was, I know it tried to curtail the oil companies.
There was a lot of work done to help consumers, like eliminating junk fees, not allowing mergers, not allowing non-compete etc. Most of them are in litigation and some of them were struck down by republican judges in the first rounds. The Biden Administration tried. They needed more time which they didn't get.
Oh? The Democrats? Pres. Biden did his part. Source, please. You know, those facts that MAGAs disregard. And then there is Congress, want to talk about their part in this fuster cluck? Regulating prices takes laws. We are about to say good bye to one of the most indolent sessions in history, nothing accomplished except food fights in the nursery. MAGAs and their childish games.
As long as people in this country want to buy fentanyl, other people will find a way to get it to them. Tariffs aren't going to do a damn thing, but then, Trump's always been more interested in pretending to be doing something about a problem than actually fixing anything.
I asked yesterday how imposing tariffs on legal goods stops the flow of illegal drugs. There is no logical connection. And honestly if you are working with a country to stop the fentanyl from coming in and impose tariffs doesn't the other country just say "screw it, let them burn"? Doesn't that help stop once you go after them? Like biting the hand that feeds you. He's just ignorant.
25% on Canadian lumber, where the US gets most of its lumber from, along with deporting immigrants, who make up a large part of the construction workforce, would be the death knell for housing. Prices for new homes are high enough now. Causing pricing to go higher will put many contractors and subcontractors out of work.
And realtors wil have major problems finding buyers. With less new construction, we'll see a return to the complete sellers market we saw back during COVID. Prices for existing housing will spike.
I read recently that there are close to 250k illegal immigrants doing construction in Texas. I think all us blue states should send our national guard units to remove them and then let Texas figure out how to fill the gap.
They are illegal aliens performing the majority of construction work in Texas, of all places, the land of Gregg Abbott and Ted Cruz and Ken Paxton - the loudest of all Texas politicians screaming about closing the border . If Texas is SO concerned about illegal immigration, then they should start to clean up in their own backyard. Deport them all and let Texas suffer the consequences. I may sound callous, but honestly, Texas needs to enter the “find out” stage of what massive deportation actually means to their state’s economy.
Thank you, Jay, for sharing your superior knowledge with us. Who knew I’d ever be interested in such a topic. But certainly glad someone is watching the hen house.
Could/would Trump maneuver to offset these coming price increases by drilling for more oil here in the U.S., and clear cutting U.S. forests to offset any price hikes in Canadian lumber and oil, all the while saying this is what he planned in the first place: more "made in the USA?" He has shown no interest in the environment, so I can't see where it would bother him to screw up said environment while drilling and clearcutting. Right?
Even if that were part of his plan, none of that is an "instant" solution. Much like his comment that if companies don't want to pay tariffs then move their manufacturing here. Or when he imposed tariffs the first time and told companies (maybe specifically the automotive companies but I'm not positive) to just have their parts manufactured here and not China. He has no concept of how manufacturing works, how long it takes or how much it costs to make the tooling and test the parts that come from said tooling and manufacturing line. How long it takes just to find a different mfg facility or build one if you can't find one. Or that the cost of building one is prohibitive. He's like "snap your fingers and produce your parts here".
Harley Davidson moved one of their Manufacturing plants outside the country because of the first round of tariffs. It counter productive what Trump did.
Trump told his voters he would impose tariffs and convinced them the exporting countries would pay. Fox and all the other MAGA mouthpieces will repeat and repeat. His Kool-aid drinking followers will become convinced that he did, whether or not he ever actually does. As far as agreements go, what sane country in the world would enter into any agreement with the US - knowing that Cheeto Head will abrogate it on a whim when he chooses to?
Oof, you really went for the jugular with "Cheeto Head" 😂! But honestly, you're not wrong, many people just take the word of their favorite talking heads without digging deeper into the details. It's like a broken record, just playing the same tune over and over. And as for trust in deals, yeah, it’s hard to imagine countries lining up to sign anything serious with a track record like that. Do you think it'll all just turn into a big "who's right" shouting match, or will the reality of the consequences finally sink in?
I've used Cheato Head for a long time, with the occasional apology to Cheetos, which I like. :+)). If he imposes the tariffs, and if he decides to execute the mass deportations, there will be consequences - construction will fall apart, crops won't get picked, and prices will go up. He promised down. Will be interesting how he shifts the blame for those onto Obama or Hillary's emails.
I'm reading some pundits who think those things won't happen. I believe they will. And not because of trump. He is just the talking head. The people pulling the strings - Bannon, Steven Miller, et al - are hell bent on getting those things done. They've been working on it for 4 years. Now, it's show time.
If those tariffs and mass deportations go through, it’s going to be a domino effect, construction halted, crops left in the fields, and prices skyrocket. It’s not hard to imagine the blame game kicking into overdrive when those things hit, though.
I think you're right, it’s not just Trump pulling the strings; it’s the folks behind the scenes who’ve been planning this for years. They’ve set the stage, and now it’s their time to shine (or cause chaos). Do you think the pushback will be strong enough to stop it, or are we in for a tough ride?
I completely agree, Trump may be the figurehead, but it’s the folks behind him pulling the strings. The real power is in the hands of those orchestrating the agenda, and they've been working tirelessly for years. If things unfold as they want, it’s definitely going to be a rough ride, especially for the everyday person who has little control over it.
Do you think there’s any chance for a shift in direction, or are we already too far down the path they've set?
I think the path is set. For two reasons. These folks are not the negotiating type. They want what they want and are hellbent on getting it. Second, is their arrogance. This might be controversial, but I wish the Democrats would stop trying to save America from Trump. Step back and let the Republicans do what they say they will. The pain will be deep, but I think it’s the only way to break the fever. One other point. Trump has been making the campaign promises - tariffs, deportations, lower prices, get rid of taxes on SS and tips, balance the budget, get rid of the debt. that all sound great. However, he hasn;t connected the dots about how all that will work - because he can’t.
Today, listening to a podcast, I heard a lot of the same conclusions being made about tariffs, deportations, and the consequences of those two things.
In addition, it seems Hair Furor still wants to “drill baby drill,” but the oil industry is quietly telling him no, that we have enough oil and what they want him to do is end the manufacturing of electric cars. Don Jr has used lies to criticize Buttigieg, who countered his lies with facts on Twitter (X) about charging stations. But who makes the most electric cars right now? Musk. I believe they want to drill in places like the Alaskan wilderness and Rocky Mountain National Park just to piss off liberals (not realizing that conservatives love these wild places too).
Some of this is about creating chaos. Some is about vengeance (for perceived slights?) Domination over the left for pure spite. And all a cover to allow Project 2025 to be put in place, and the dollar to be replaced with Bitcoin? This is going to be far worse than the lead up to WWII. Nazi Germany was organized. These nitwits are not. If the left has an opportunity in all this, it’s to organize like crazy and prepare to wield power in the face of madness.
Fionna, I think you have made a brilliant analysis, and I agree with every word. All the stuff they want to do to the Left, will catch their people too - for instance, it’s not only Dem kids that will get the measles, or “lib” women who will die for lack of reproductive healthcare. The phrase “drunk with power” comes to mind.
You should have added the domestic side under The Law of Unintended Consequences. Namely that DOMESTIC producers will look at how much the tariffs add to the price of imported goods. Let's use an abstract example that the price of item X goes from $100 to $115 (the flow through costs might not match the percentage tariff applied in a 1:1 manner). Now, regardless of actual COSTS, your domestic player says. "Gosh. I can raise the PRICE of my version to $113 and still be cheaper than the imported one!" This without any improvement in production, costs, or reinvestment - just plain old greed.
P.S. Through the middle of the piece you had a repeated typo (sort of). You had UCMCA instead of USMCA. Of course, in Canada, we refer to it as CUSMA!
Trump repeatedly stated he would impose tariffs during the campaign. His gross ignorance on the topic was on display at the Chicago Economic Club. In ordinary times this shit show alone would have been disqualifying. His language that our trading partners will “pay” these tariffs again shows his utter lack of understanding. This is an excellent article but I personally don’t see the point in trying to find any grand strategy in Trump’s threats. I think the explanation is simple: He’s always been an ignoramus and now he’s demented as well.
I'm sure there are members of Dumpy's staff who've tried to explain to him how tariffs work. But I think Dumpy gets an idea in his head and simply stops listening to anything else. He doesn't care. He is the Almighty, the greatest whatever who ever lived, and that's it. He's always right.
Considering he granted tariff exemptions in his first round and they were more likely to be granted if the company was Republican friendly in their financial support, he knows damn well how they work. He's granting exceptions to businesses here not overseas. He's just a horrible president who thinks he can bully his way through everything.
He’s as much a moron as the voters who put him into office.
Trump is even MORE of a moron than his brain-dead cultist voters.
JVL, writing on the Bulwark, lays it out: First, hand out EOs first day in office announcing all those promised tariffs "will be imposed because...yadda-yadda"; let a few weeks go by as FoxNews and the right-wing megaphone praise tRump to the skies, while the "establishment", through their respective organs, go nutz; then, after sucking all the oxygen out of the room, tRump then announces that both Mexico and Canada "bowed" to his requests tied to the tariffs and "corrected" the "fentanyl and illegals problems", so he announces that the tariffs will be "on hold" pending continuation of "good behavior" by the targeted countries.
Everybody's happy, nobody gets hurt.
Sounds eminently plausible, AND very tRumpy.
Sounds like we need to keep repeating, loudly, that those very problems have been significantly improved over the past 4 years, i.e. border crossings are significantly down at present and Fentanyl dosage has decreased. Can this be attributed to Harris' work with Mexico and the triangle? Also, majority of fentanyl is brought in by American citizens...
The audience there were supposedly business owners and CEOs, regardless if they actually were or weren't, a great many of them seemed to enjoy tRump "owning" the interviewer.
Call me petty, I’m 78 and being called names doesn’t bother me, but I hope all the people who voted for Trump clutch their pearls and die over the shock of how high prices are. I don’t plan to buy anything for a while and I hope that they suffer. I mean, really suffer! And then I think we need to flood the airways with talk about how the economy was doing great under Biden, but under Trump prices are higher than they’ve ever been.I really mean it when I say gloves off, let’s get our hands dirty!
Hi Betty (close enough? 😀) - they should be cranking out ads right now saying "WE WARNED YOU."
Caveat emptor!
I agree. Ours side has and has had a problem with getting our message out. News of the Biden administration’s successes has been drowned out by the right wing propaganda machine. It’s something that must be addressed and it will be much more difficult with the felon in power.
You're awesome! I found myself both laughing and agreeing with you. If this is petty, sign me up!
An important point about tariffs that is often neglected... When the price of imports goes up, domestically manufactured products lack the competition to keep prices low. Domestic producers raise prices too and pocket the winnings while consumers lose.
That's the plan.
Terrific piece, Jay. The only thing we can know for absolute sure is that Trump will claim he had nothing to do with it if it turns sour.
"Tariffs? Never heard of them. I know nothing about them, never had anything to do with them."
Liar, liar. Pants on fire.
As usual.
It’s like tariffs are that mysterious neighbor you never really see but hear all sorts of rumors about. Do you think people will start paying attention now that they’re making headlines again, or is it just one of those "we'll deal with it later" situations?
Thank you for reading!
">>what Trump said he would do and what the voters elected him to do.<<"
ONLY HALF of the voters. This was NO mandate. NO landslide. And those voters may have a very rude and harsh awakening. Wait for that buyers' remorse to set in.
And sadly the buyers’ remorse will hurt the other half, who did not buy. Already you can see signs. I’ve read a couple reports from Latino voters, with illegals in their family who said, “Deport? I didn’t think he meant it.” Chickens are going to come home to roost.
The difference between Harris and Trump in total votes is just under 2.5 million. That is not even close to a mandate or a landslide. I await the screams of despair and horror among all those families who will see their loved ones deported; babies placed in cages -- again. Stephen Miller, the Goebbels of Trump world, is a sadist. He and those like him will turn this into an inhumane enterprise. They lust after cruel intentions and application. It is an angering factor that we who did not vote for the Republicans will also suffer at the hands of fools.
I really do believe that the MAGAts just aren't intelligent enough to understand any of it. On that basis, I don't think they understand that elections are for real and not some reality TV event. If you are down trodden enough, I guess you'll back the "strong man" who says all the things you are thinking. Even if the "strong man" is ancient, stupid, a felon, and has the mind of a third grader who can't recall what he said from on hour to the next.
As for those he is surrounding himself with? Their life span in politics is as long as the felon lives. I'd be honing my resumé if I were them. He's past his "sell by date."
To put a finer point on it: the difference was 230K votes in the 7 swing states. That’s 00.15% of the total number of votes cast nationally. Hardly what I’d call a “mandate”.
"They" will spin the lie, no matter the facts. Don't count on the MEDIA to provide clarity to the truth and fact of this event.
Concur completely. Cruelty is the point. Trump likes his people to look like they came from central casting. Miller sure fits the bill.
Huh...Central casting for a horror flick. I've been calling Stephen Miller Trump's pet zombie vampire for years.
I think he could be in a WW II movie running a concentration camp. Looks just like I would picture that role. That’s what I meant by central casting in his case.
The irony is that Miller is a Jew. Just proves evil monsters come in every cloth and religion. I read somewhere that Miller was disowned by his family. It appears he found a "family" more to his cruel and sinister liking.
You are quite right, and I apologize for using the term. I’m a person of words, and I know they matter. This was a mistake on my part. I appreciate your correction.
Could we please use the term undocumented instead of illegals? First, no human is illegal, and second, according to US immigration law, being in the US without documentation is a civil misdemeanor, not a crime. It’s like a parking ticket, although you’re would never know that from the right wing rhetoric. Let’s not use their language.
I think that some companies are beginning to buy ahead so that they have inventory on hand. Those tariffs are a seriously bad idea. If T goes through with it, I hope that he get bitten on the gluteus maximus bigly.
There was a story floating around on Threads after the election about a company which cancelled the Christmas bonus to stock up on imported goods before the tariffs are coming. It was a good story but not sure if it is true. If true I just hope it hits the right people and they learn something from it. Remotely possible but not likely.
Amy, it was real. Can't remember where I read it unfortunately.
Seriously though, it’s definitely smart for companies to stock up—nothing like a little pre-tariff panic buying. But yeah, if these tariffs really hit hard, I can see a lot of businesses squirming. Do you think it’ll hurt more in the short term or are we in for a long haul of pain if they stick around?
I’ve already started stocking up on household goods, non-perishables, and needed electronic upgrades myself, so I can understand companies wanting to do the same. My goal is to buy as little as possible after 1/20/25.
That’s a smart move, being prepared always feels better than being caught off guard! 😅 I totally get why you’d want to stock up now and minimize buying later. It’s like getting ahead of the curve in case things go sideways. Do you have a strategy for what’s essential to buy, or are you just grabbing things as you go? Either way, sounds like you’re setting yourself up for peace of mind!
I’m trying to get things when they’re on sale and that we’ll use eventually, so it’s not just panic-buying. Who knows what the next 2020 toilet paper will be?
That’s the best strategy, getting what you’ll actually use and catching the sales when you can! No point in stocking up on stuff that just ends up collecting dust. 😂 And you're right, who knows what the next "toilet paper" item will be! Could be something as random as flour, batteries, or even pet food this time around. It’s like a game of supply chain roulette. Have you already thought about what might be the next big shortage, or are you just rolling with the punches for now?
A couple of thoughts. First, insofar as our halfwit president-elect is concerned, his prowess in negotiation is based on his bullying tactics. And insofar as his previously negotiated trade agreement with Canada and Mexico is on the books, any attempt to violate it or change the rules is pure T…p, smoke and mirrors to enhance his image among is supporters. If he throws out the gauntlet for tariffs and gets even a blink from our neighbors in Canada and Mexico he’ll turn what started out as a non-starter as a “win” and try and capitalize on it with his base. He’s a liar. Why should we expect anything less?
Second, and I hate to throw and a blanket description of the voters who put him into office, they were ignorant, self-serving misogynistic racists who wouldn’t understand an economic theory unless it were published in a “Dick and Jane” reader. That being said, if the tariffs go through - and it’s a wait and see issue right now - the T…p supporters’ expectations of lower prices at the grocery store will be blown to smithereens.
Great post today, Jay. Should be required reading in order to register to vote!
I love the Dick and Jane reference. How about a primer called "Dick and Jane Go Shopping"?
My understanding of trade is limited but from what you said and what I’ve read elsewhere this will have a big impact on the construction industry’s ability to plan if it actually happens or even if it leads foreign trading partners to hesitate to deal with US suppliers. As you said, a lot of our lumber comes from Canada. A US company trying to bid on a construction project can’t do so if they can’t reasonably forecast the cost of materials more than a couple month out, i.e. when Trump takes office. Between this and the threat to deport immigrants, this may gut the construction industry, based on data I saw yesterday claiming as many as half the workers may be undocumented or have immediate family members who are. This is one of the few sectors that haven’t been offshored since Reagan and those after him.
Excellent point! And the housing situation will worsen. Way to go, Donny.
My husband spent his entire career in the construction industry. There goes his pension that he worked so hard for all of those years 😡😠🤬
Oh no! That's terrible!!! I hope that doesn't happen.
Thank you. There may be thousands of former construction workers who are now retired who'll find themselves in the same sad situation. And so the ripples begin...
That's just awful. I really hope he doesn't institute these tariffs and deportations. Maybe there will be such an outcry from business that he'll back down.
Consider that there may be a lag in the price increases if companies buy ahead to avoid the tariffs. The tariffs should be hitting hard around mid-year, when hurricane season starts. How long will folks have to wait for their houses to be repaired or replaced?
Any company raising prices before the tariffs go into effect are price gouging. Plain and simple.
Well companies sure were able to get away with it under Biden. The Democrats should have been all over this on day one
well there was the anti price gouging legislation that they tried to pass but got knocked down by the Repugs. I don't know how far reaching the bill was, I know it tried to curtail the oil companies.
There was a lot of work done to help consumers, like eliminating junk fees, not allowing mergers, not allowing non-compete etc. Most of them are in litigation and some of them were struck down by republican judges in the first rounds. The Biden Administration tried. They needed more time which they didn't get.
Oh? The Democrats? Pres. Biden did his part. Source, please. You know, those facts that MAGAs disregard. And then there is Congress, want to talk about their part in this fuster cluck? Regulating prices takes laws. We are about to say good bye to one of the most indolent sessions in history, nothing accomplished except food fights in the nursery. MAGAs and their childish games.
As long as people in this country want to buy fentanyl, other people will find a way to get it to them. Tariffs aren't going to do a damn thing, but then, Trump's always been more interested in pretending to be doing something about a problem than actually fixing anything.
I asked yesterday how imposing tariffs on legal goods stops the flow of illegal drugs. There is no logical connection. And honestly if you are working with a country to stop the fentanyl from coming in and impose tariffs doesn't the other country just say "screw it, let them burn"? Doesn't that help stop once you go after them? Like biting the hand that feeds you. He's just ignorant.
25% on Canadian lumber, where the US gets most of its lumber from, along with deporting immigrants, who make up a large part of the construction workforce, would be the death knell for housing. Prices for new homes are high enough now. Causing pricing to go higher will put many contractors and subcontractors out of work.
And home buyers and sellers.
And realtors wil have major problems finding buyers. With less new construction, we'll see a return to the complete sellers market we saw back during COVID. Prices for existing housing will spike.
I read recently that there are close to 250k illegal immigrants doing construction in Texas. I think all us blue states should send our national guard units to remove them and then let Texas figure out how to fill the gap.
Why would we be so cruel to people just trying to get by.
They are illegal aliens performing the majority of construction work in Texas, of all places, the land of Gregg Abbott and Ted Cruz and Ken Paxton - the loudest of all Texas politicians screaming about closing the border . If Texas is SO concerned about illegal immigration, then they should start to clean up in their own backyard. Deport them all and let Texas suffer the consequences. I may sound callous, but honestly, Texas needs to enter the “find out” stage of what massive deportation actually means to their state’s economy.
"Undocumented"
Thank you, Jay, for sharing your superior knowledge with us. Who knew I’d ever be interested in such a topic. But certainly glad someone is watching the hen house.
Could/would Trump maneuver to offset these coming price increases by drilling for more oil here in the U.S., and clear cutting U.S. forests to offset any price hikes in Canadian lumber and oil, all the while saying this is what he planned in the first place: more "made in the USA?" He has shown no interest in the environment, so I can't see where it would bother him to screw up said environment while drilling and clearcutting. Right?
Even if that were part of his plan, none of that is an "instant" solution. Much like his comment that if companies don't want to pay tariffs then move their manufacturing here. Or when he imposed tariffs the first time and told companies (maybe specifically the automotive companies but I'm not positive) to just have their parts manufactured here and not China. He has no concept of how manufacturing works, how long it takes or how much it costs to make the tooling and test the parts that come from said tooling and manufacturing line. How long it takes just to find a different mfg facility or build one if you can't find one. Or that the cost of building one is prohibitive. He's like "snap your fingers and produce your parts here".
Harley Davidson moved one of their Manufacturing plants outside the country because of the first round of tariffs. It counter productive what Trump did.
And it will be worse this time. He feels empowered, he won't hold back
Trump told his voters he would impose tariffs and convinced them the exporting countries would pay. Fox and all the other MAGA mouthpieces will repeat and repeat. His Kool-aid drinking followers will become convinced that he did, whether or not he ever actually does. As far as agreements go, what sane country in the world would enter into any agreement with the US - knowing that Cheeto Head will abrogate it on a whim when he chooses to?
Oof, you really went for the jugular with "Cheeto Head" 😂! But honestly, you're not wrong, many people just take the word of their favorite talking heads without digging deeper into the details. It's like a broken record, just playing the same tune over and over. And as for trust in deals, yeah, it’s hard to imagine countries lining up to sign anything serious with a track record like that. Do you think it'll all just turn into a big "who's right" shouting match, or will the reality of the consequences finally sink in?
I've used Cheato Head for a long time, with the occasional apology to Cheetos, which I like. :+)). If he imposes the tariffs, and if he decides to execute the mass deportations, there will be consequences - construction will fall apart, crops won't get picked, and prices will go up. He promised down. Will be interesting how he shifts the blame for those onto Obama or Hillary's emails.
I'm reading some pundits who think those things won't happen. I believe they will. And not because of trump. He is just the talking head. The people pulling the strings - Bannon, Steven Miller, et al - are hell bent on getting those things done. They've been working on it for 4 years. Now, it's show time.
If those tariffs and mass deportations go through, it’s going to be a domino effect, construction halted, crops left in the fields, and prices skyrocket. It’s not hard to imagine the blame game kicking into overdrive when those things hit, though.
I think you're right, it’s not just Trump pulling the strings; it’s the folks behind the scenes who’ve been planning this for years. They’ve set the stage, and now it’s their time to shine (or cause chaos). Do you think the pushback will be strong enough to stop it, or are we in for a tough ride?
I’m voting for rough ride. The powers behind the throne are runnning this show. Trump is a figurehead.
I completely agree, Trump may be the figurehead, but it’s the folks behind him pulling the strings. The real power is in the hands of those orchestrating the agenda, and they've been working tirelessly for years. If things unfold as they want, it’s definitely going to be a rough ride, especially for the everyday person who has little control over it.
Do you think there’s any chance for a shift in direction, or are we already too far down the path they've set?
I think the path is set. For two reasons. These folks are not the negotiating type. They want what they want and are hellbent on getting it. Second, is their arrogance. This might be controversial, but I wish the Democrats would stop trying to save America from Trump. Step back and let the Republicans do what they say they will. The pain will be deep, but I think it’s the only way to break the fever. One other point. Trump has been making the campaign promises - tariffs, deportations, lower prices, get rid of taxes on SS and tips, balance the budget, get rid of the debt. that all sound great. However, he hasn;t connected the dots about how all that will work - because he can’t.
Dawn, agree 💯. One thing to get used to: Blame Biden. Everything will be his fault.
Today, listening to a podcast, I heard a lot of the same conclusions being made about tariffs, deportations, and the consequences of those two things.
In addition, it seems Hair Furor still wants to “drill baby drill,” but the oil industry is quietly telling him no, that we have enough oil and what they want him to do is end the manufacturing of electric cars. Don Jr has used lies to criticize Buttigieg, who countered his lies with facts on Twitter (X) about charging stations. But who makes the most electric cars right now? Musk. I believe they want to drill in places like the Alaskan wilderness and Rocky Mountain National Park just to piss off liberals (not realizing that conservatives love these wild places too).
Some of this is about creating chaos. Some is about vengeance (for perceived slights?) Domination over the left for pure spite. And all a cover to allow Project 2025 to be put in place, and the dollar to be replaced with Bitcoin? This is going to be far worse than the lead up to WWII. Nazi Germany was organized. These nitwits are not. If the left has an opportunity in all this, it’s to organize like crazy and prepare to wield power in the face of madness.
Fionna, I think you have made a brilliant analysis, and I agree with every word. All the stuff they want to do to the Left, will catch their people too - for instance, it’s not only Dem kids that will get the measles, or “lib” women who will die for lack of reproductive healthcare. The phrase “drunk with power” comes to mind.
You should have added the domestic side under The Law of Unintended Consequences. Namely that DOMESTIC producers will look at how much the tariffs add to the price of imported goods. Let's use an abstract example that the price of item X goes from $100 to $115 (the flow through costs might not match the percentage tariff applied in a 1:1 manner). Now, regardless of actual COSTS, your domestic player says. "Gosh. I can raise the PRICE of my version to $113 and still be cheaper than the imported one!" This without any improvement in production, costs, or reinvestment - just plain old greed.
P.S. Through the middle of the piece you had a repeated typo (sort of). You had UCMCA instead of USMCA. Of course, in Canada, we refer to it as CUSMA!
I think he intends to accept bribes from the countries he’s imposing these on, to exempt or lower them. That is where he sees $$$ for himself.