I've always thought that Hillary's mistake with "deplorables" was in applying the term to the PEOPLE and not the IDEAS they were propounding. The same thing goes on a lot on the left: trump voters are "stupid" (they mostly navigate life adequately) instead of "the IDEAS held by trump voters are stupid." That goes on the right, too, of course. But calling ideas "Marxist" doesn't get you much further than calling Harris or her voters Marxist, because her ideas are no more Marxist than she is.
The best way of course is to say "X trump supporter's belief that tariffs will bring in money to the American People is stupid because a tariff is paid for BY the American people." And, though it will do no good, Shane, "the idea that trump is a self-made billionaire is stupid because it is clear that he inherited his wealth." Follow "the idea is stupid" with a brief note as to WHY.
And I also question that, if that is what pushed people to vote trump, why is the vitriol he is spewing today not pushing 75% of the electorate to Harris? Or is it?
I can only speak for myself here, but I have chosen to AVOID polling and pay little attention to the pre-election polls because they can so easily be misleading and manipulative. Polls can give one side of the question... overconfidence in the likely result of the election, which ultimately leads to a surprise outcome, such as we saw in 2016 when Trump, despite the polls, managed to acquire enough Electoral College votes to win... even though he had clearly lost the popular vote.
The problem, therefore, is that basing polls ONLY on the popular vote can and often does give a sense of overwhelming odds, leading some few critical votes in "battleground states" to skip the election in the belief that their vote will not matter. Even IN those EC battleground states, the belief that you CANNOT win would lead you to question the need to even bother voting.
The questions in a poll can and often will be misleading as well, seeming to ask a question with the full intent of steering the reader (or listener) to a specific answer. I think there are rules against this, but I receive multiple polls that very clearly want me to answer in a specific way. This is specifically one of the reasons I avoid answering polls... even those asking if I am registered to vote or intend to vote in any direction.
No, there is far too much psychology being used in opinion polls today and as a result, the only such polls in the political arena are the actual Primary, General and Presidential polls, where it doesn't matter who finds out how I voted AFTER I have set it in stone.
I imagine that all researchers have baked in—somewhere—the deeply embedded sensibility that women have about men, period. And have thoughts about how this affects voting patterns.
Yesterday a piece in the NYTimes came out about how Harris is starting to match Trump in terms of voter confidence about the economy, and a key part of the messaging that's working is that Harris understands and relates to voters on this in a way Trump doesn't. Basically it's making the point that we make with the "Gets Me" thing in this study. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/26/us/politics/trump-harris-economy.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
What an excellent article! I am fascinated by their approach in finding out what we really think. I hope they get the funding to continue this work. I would like to see them follow a cohort of interviewees from before the election to after and find out if they voted the way that their methods suggested. Great stuff!
Polls have been so wrong recently that they have lost their aura of accuracy if they ever had it to begin with. Polls are still good at indicating trends but they are very poor at predicting what the Undecideds will bo on Nov. 5th which is when this election will be determined. Let us hope that these people break for the Ds!
“Could studying subconscious responses from voters fix our broken polling?”
How about instead we don’t bother? So you make an effort to fix something that should be thrown away?
I don’t want leaders who bend with every latest poll. I want leaders who lead. Who say “This is what I’m going to do and why.” and convince people they’re right.
I think is all bullshit. No one tells the truth anymore. Why in the world should I/we trust a poll, a politician, the fucking corporate media, a family member, a friend, a partner?!? I stopped trusting everyone after my 5th death threat from my asshat MAGA brother. I think the world needs to be rid of the USA and fucking Americans!
In reference to Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” comment:
1. She DID win the popular vote, although her
comment may have lost her votes
2. Misogyny was a factor, too
3. She was running against a spoiler (Bernie),
who told people there was really no
difference between Trump and Hillary, and
who was a very reluctant supporter of her
when he lost to her
(Btw, she was so correct about Trump’s voters.)
Well said!
I've always thought that Hillary's mistake with "deplorables" was in applying the term to the PEOPLE and not the IDEAS they were propounding. The same thing goes on a lot on the left: trump voters are "stupid" (they mostly navigate life adequately) instead of "the IDEAS held by trump voters are stupid." That goes on the right, too, of course. But calling ideas "Marxist" doesn't get you much further than calling Harris or her voters Marxist, because her ideas are no more Marxist than she is.
The best way of course is to say "X trump supporter's belief that tariffs will bring in money to the American People is stupid because a tariff is paid for BY the American people." And, though it will do no good, Shane, "the idea that trump is a self-made billionaire is stupid because it is clear that he inherited his wealth." Follow "the idea is stupid" with a brief note as to WHY.
And I also question that, if that is what pushed people to vote trump, why is the vitriol he is spewing today not pushing 75% of the electorate to Harris? Or is it?
I can only speak for myself here, but I have chosen to AVOID polling and pay little attention to the pre-election polls because they can so easily be misleading and manipulative. Polls can give one side of the question... overconfidence in the likely result of the election, which ultimately leads to a surprise outcome, such as we saw in 2016 when Trump, despite the polls, managed to acquire enough Electoral College votes to win... even though he had clearly lost the popular vote.
The problem, therefore, is that basing polls ONLY on the popular vote can and often does give a sense of overwhelming odds, leading some few critical votes in "battleground states" to skip the election in the belief that their vote will not matter. Even IN those EC battleground states, the belief that you CANNOT win would lead you to question the need to even bother voting.
The questions in a poll can and often will be misleading as well, seeming to ask a question with the full intent of steering the reader (or listener) to a specific answer. I think there are rules against this, but I receive multiple polls that very clearly want me to answer in a specific way. This is specifically one of the reasons I avoid answering polls... even those asking if I am registered to vote or intend to vote in any direction.
No, there is far too much psychology being used in opinion polls today and as a result, the only such polls in the political arena are the actual Primary, General and Presidential polls, where it doesn't matter who finds out how I voted AFTER I have set it in stone.
I imagine that all researchers have baked in—somewhere—the deeply embedded sensibility that women have about men, period. And have thoughts about how this affects voting patterns.
Yesterday a piece in the NYTimes came out about how Harris is starting to match Trump in terms of voter confidence about the economy, and a key part of the messaging that's working is that Harris understands and relates to voters on this in a way Trump doesn't. Basically it's making the point that we make with the "Gets Me" thing in this study. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/26/us/politics/trump-harris-economy.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
I’ve read that tfg-voters were unrepresented in 2016. How many Kamala-voters refuse, like I always have to submit to a poll?
What an excellent article! I am fascinated by their approach in finding out what we really think. I hope they get the funding to continue this work. I would like to see them follow a cohort of interviewees from before the election to after and find out if they voted the way that their methods suggested. Great stuff!
Polls have been so wrong recently that they have lost their aura of accuracy if they ever had it to begin with. Polls are still good at indicating trends but they are very poor at predicting what the Undecideds will bo on Nov. 5th which is when this election will be determined. Let us hope that these people break for the Ds!
Hmm… Interesting.
“Could studying subconscious responses from voters fix our broken polling?”
How about instead we don’t bother? So you make an effort to fix something that should be thrown away?
I don’t want leaders who bend with every latest poll. I want leaders who lead. Who say “This is what I’m going to do and why.” and convince people they’re right.
ACTIONS BY EVERYONE GROWS FREEDOM
How to Prevent "GOP MASS PSYCHOSIS - How an Entire Population Becomes MENTALLY ILL"
❤️ Discredit totalitarian propaganda everywhere
🤣 Mock GOP worship of dictators
❤️ Grow joyful unified structures
❤️ c 1st 📈
https://youtu.be/09maaUaRT4M
In the grand scheme of things, this is a nit lol! Thank you for using “data” as plural! Signed, frustrated grammatical Ph.D. 😁😁😁
I think is all bullshit. No one tells the truth anymore. Why in the world should I/we trust a poll, a politician, the fucking corporate media, a family member, a friend, a partner?!? I stopped trusting everyone after my 5th death threat from my asshat MAGA brother. I think the world needs to be rid of the USA and fucking Americans!