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I saw a recent poll - NYT? - showing Harris favorability crossing the 50% mark, whilst tRump's remains in the low 40s, and stagnant. Also, Josh Marshall had a chat with old-school pollster and political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who was quoted as saying that it very well could be an EV rout for the Dem ticket. And Jeff Tiedrich today has some very interesting insights from data scientist Thomas Miller, who relies on the betting markets as being more in tune with voter sentiment than laggy polls, and where the largest, PredictIt, also is aligning toward an EV stomping by Harris-Walz.

I know, I know, we were all burned in 2016, nobody listened to Nate Silver, yadda-yadda, but THIS TIME IT FEELS DIFFERENT!

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There are so many reasons to believe that it IS different this time.

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Everybody has reported that 400,000 new voter registrations in 24 hours but nobody's taken a longer snapshot of the number since Taylor came out with her announcement. I have no idea how to research that if you can, that would be great.

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It was all about the big bump. I would expect the numbers to have returned to whatever "normal" is for this.

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You may want to research what Taylor Swift's fan base is like to understand the error in that reasoning. On Instagram alone she has more than a quarter of a billion followers many of them very actively engaged with her.

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I'm just referring to the number of new unique visitors to the site as of the time frame referenced. I very much do understand the size of her fan base, but you also must remember that a lot of them are from outside the U.S. That was a HUGE bump, and certainly more of them are trailing along - but my point is that that does not continue at the same level - it can't. eventually, you get everyone who is coming due to the given stimulus, and the numbers return to baseline.

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Nevermind...just figured it out (early voting right?)

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See above.

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What does EV mean?

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Electoral Votes

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OOPS...guessed wrong. Thank you!

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I was wondering that myself. 😊✌🏻

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I hope to every God you're right! I mean correct!

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It is, because love makes the world go round.

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…reply to Lance.

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Except Nate Silver, now bankrolled by Thiel, is saying drumpf will win.

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