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Since publication, a Morning Consult post-debate poll also shows Harris with a 5 point national lead over Trump, reaching the 50 percent mark at 50 to 45 percent for the first time this election cycle. That is an increase in her lead of two points, from 49 to 46 a week earlier in the same poll.

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I like to look at polls and see trends while trying to discount the absolute numbers. Shifts within a poll are fairly important over time, because the same methodology, even if flawed in an absolute sense, is likely consistent enough to show a trend. And the trend is definitely toward Harris.

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OK, maybe a little arcane or enigmatic but I agree with you and we are supported even in some quantum theory with what is called Ergodic Theory. 😉😵‍💫

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Getting outside the “margin for error?”

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Sep 12Liked by The Big Picture

I'm sick to death of "undecideds". In a contest this stark, you have to live in a bubble to not have made a decision. It's literally between fascism and democracy. What I took from the description of these people in the focus groups is they're either racist, sexist, or both. Polling wouldn't be this close if we abolished the Electoral College. It's way past time. As far as reporting on the debate goes, our media continues to fail us. I'm sick of every election since Obama being so scary. The Republican party has shown us for a long time what they stand for and it's not us. My other big worry is the Republican never trumpers. They may vote for Kamala, but I'll bet good money they vote Republican in every other race, hoping to keep the House and/or flip the Senate. They could stall her agenda for her whole term. We have to vote for every Democrat on the ballot in numbers so big, that we outweigh their sabotage. I can wait for this to be over. I'm exhausted.

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Meeting voters where they are is a very exhausting thing when you realize where they actually are.

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I echo what you said. Many of us are exhausted by what we have gone through the last 9 years. I hope and pray that the young people who have aged in to eligibility to vote will register and vote blue. Their lives and those of their children and grandchildren literally depend on it. They don’t have to love the democrats. They just have to love democracy. Just this once, everyone please vote blue up and down the ballot. Crush the fascists. Save our democracy. And live to fight another day.

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It's maddening. I understand they're not engaged. But a normal person can't watch Trump and think, "Yep, that's who I want to give the keys to."

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Regarding the electoral college read this about National Popular Vote Interstate Compact https://citizenstakeaction.org/how-to-fix-the-electoral-college/ . Once we done with the problem at hand we need to regroup and get this done. Only a few more states needed to make this happen.

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Remember the ERA -"only a few more votes and it will be done." Yup. I'm still waiting. Easier to change an existing law than it is the Constitution. Let's try that.

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I completely agree with your opinion on undecideds. What kind of wacky logic is “I’m ok she’s a woman and I’m ok she’s black but is she the right person for the job?”

Total BS. These people have no critical thinking skills and are just fing with the pollster.

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it's unrecognized unconscious misogyny. that feeling of just not being able to "trust" a woman, especially a woman of color

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And/or bigotry.

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Right, as if the choice were about picking between two seemingly attractive candidates. That answer is covering a prejudice she doesn’t admit to having.

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You're exactly right about the house/senate and the down ballot races are concerning. They're just as important for a democrat to win in order to have a chance for true progressive change. I agree with everything you've stated.

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Nailed it! I pay no attention to polls and/or corporate media. Most of the time they’re one and the same.

In terms of “undecideds” how many of these low information voters can there truly be? Both of these candidates have been on the political scene for years! And now there are a few people saying they don’t know whether to vote for democracy or fascism?

That now they “want to see the fine print” on the candidates policies?!

I call BULLSHIT!

“Undecideds” that the corporate media talk to are either racists, misogynists, and/or closet trump voters. Why should pundits or anyone else care why? It’s obvious why they say they’re undecided.

A better use of time is to register new voters and GOTV.

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Here's hoping for a Blue Wave!

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Yes. All of the above.

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i just wrote a piece addressing this. basically i think the undecideds know that trump sucks but can't really bring themselves to trust a woman, especially a black woman.

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The problem is NOT the electoral college, it is a law passed in 1911 which caps the size of the House of Representatives Public Law 62-5. That apportionment number can be changed. That can be changed and it would be a helluva lot easier than changing the Constitution.

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Electoral College: there would be no 'swing states' if electors were apportioned based on the popular vote: NE and ME have a different approach: detter than 'winner take all' but not quite fair since they only have (3, 2) Electors. - see https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/

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The number of representatives with full voting rights is 435, a number set by Public Law 62-5 on August 8, 1911, and in effect since 1913. The number of representatives per state is proportionate to population.

It's a law. Change it. Don't try and mess with the Constitution -it will still be a mess the next century comes around. The number is NOT written in stone. Change the law.

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I have been ranting about this non-stop.

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Sep 12Liked by Jay Kuo

I worked the Democrat booth at a local fair yesterday in a red but some blue, MAGA part of Washington State. I’ve never volunteered before but felt my calling to do so. The almost completely positive feedback I got from people was astounding. I even had a couple of women and one man who are republicans, tell me that they cannot vote for tRump again. They also spoke about how impressed they were with Kamala’s debate performance. Of course the people who are democrats that stopped by were gleeful and giddy about the debate. I also saw people with Harris/Walz shirts. More so than even I expected. Of course the Republicans had their own booth in another part of the fair, so a democrat who stopped at our booth said she was going to go troll the Republican booth. She came back with a picture of their booth with a cutout of Donald orange turd and get this, RFK Jr! She asked the booth worker who the other guy was next to tRump because it wasn’t JD, and he looked at it and said, “I don’t know who that is!” 😂. But they were also handing out a flyer that RFK Jr. had supposedly wrote, and on it was JFK’s famous quote: “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” It was disgusting. We only had two people say derogatory things to us, and one old white guy wave his MAGAT hat at us and smile. The other person working the booth said to him “good luck with that”.

But the most interesting conversation was with a woman who said she used to be a democrat but could not be one after covid, as she was a nurse who refused to get vaccinated and so she was fired. She also said when she was a nurse she was forced to perform 9 month abortions. I told her that was murder. At this point in the conversation I wasn’t sure about her mental acuity. Then when asked about his statement of immigrants eating cats and dogs, she said, “Oh I know that is a true statement because I saw a video on YouTube!” I told her that anyone can fake a video and post it. What was the source of the video, she had no answer. The take away is that those who have partaken in the kool-aid, won’t be swayed, but those who have some critical thinking skills left, are finally turning against him. Including my Republican for life, twice voted for tRump, 80 year old parents who I have talked to for 9 years about tRump and the danger he poses to America. They will be voting a Democratic ticket for the first time in their lives! There is HOPE people. 💙💙💙

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Wow, that woman!

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I am a retired OB/GYN nurse. There is no such thing as a nine month abortion. And believe me, doctors and nurses do everything they can to keep a baby alive, not kill it, once it is born. Obvious the woman has mental issues and I think many of Trump’s cult members have mental issues if they believe crap like that . (I had a friend tell me that her Bible group went to the local hospital and they would rock dying aborted babies ! A clump of cells gets rocked —that is total bullshit. )That woman SHOULD have been fired for not getting vaccinated and possibly spreading Covid to her vulnerable patients. And Springfield, OH is in virtual lockdown today due to bomb threats from some wing nut that believes trump’s lies about Haitians eating pets. Forgive me if I am losing HOPE. Half of America is bat shit crazy.

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It’s time for churches to be taxed. Most of them are nothing but PACs.

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Sep 12Liked by The Big Picture

It will matter if all those newly registered voter, and on-the-fence voters, go to the polls and vote for Harris. Whatever we need to do to make that happen is what's important. Polls are often inaccurate, even more inaccurate these days than previously. They should not make us complacent in the same way that we should not have, previously, made us overly distressed. They are informational and we should understand that getting out the vote, and convincing people to vote for our candidate is what matters.

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This is a turnout election, which is why I look at enthusiasm as a very important metric.

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Well said!

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Vote for Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot. It won’t matter if they only vote for Harris and then repubs and 3rd party on the rest of the ballot!

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I’m sorry, that may not have been clear; you; all of us must vote for democrats all the way up and down the ballot or we will not get what we need and want. Thank you ❤️

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I have read (don’t ask where, I can’t remember) that newly registered voters are very likely to vote in the first election following when they registered, because they were energized to register and retain that energy until the election. The fact that new registrations, especially among women and younger people in swing states, are much higher since Kamala became the Democratic presumptive, then actual nominee, is a very positive sign. No time for any of us to get complacent, however, we need a landslide victory for Harris/Walz and Democrats down ballot on November 5.

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Sep 12Liked by Jay Kuo

There is no way anyone with a modicum of intelligence could have watched the debate and still wanted to vote for him. Those extra 6-10, however many, minutes he was given cost him a lot of money in fallen stocks. I say let him talk. If you give him enough rope, he will hang himself. He is beyond the pale demented now.

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The hypocrisy of too many is astounding. They say they need to know more about Harris's policy positions, but don't care about the "orange man's [om]." Harris starts with two strikes -being Black/Asian and being a Woman. What more can she do? She dominated OM in the debate and showed that she is not to be one easily dominated by someone else. Anyone with sense should see OM for what he is - a bully ,a bigot, a misogynist, a convicted felon [by different juries of his peers] with no loyalty to anyone other than himself. Unlike Harris' he presented no policies just vague generalities which frequently conflicted with each other. His supporters must be either bigots, misogynists or those who don't [won't] get informed on the issues. She should be up by 40 points. His character is such that that alone should be disqualifying. I am an optimist normally, but to see the race seemingly so close is very disheartening

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We live in a nation deeply infected with misogyny and racism. That is a fact that we have had to contend with since our founding. It still distorts our politics today.

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Sep 12·edited Sep 12

And still so many IQ45 voters that I know saying the "just prefer his policies". What policies? Did I miss something? (SMH)

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I think they are trying not to say they are racist.

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Who said anything about racist? Trump offers nothing to most of the Americans. He is trying now to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation 2025 plan, scrambling, and yet hoping he doesn't alienate those Ultra Conservatives( throwbacks to the middle ages) A 78 year old senile man who spews hate and distrust is not what this country needs...anyplace.

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Sep 12·edited Sep 12

That's my point. The "policies they prefer" are children in cages, killing migrants crossing the border, the Muslim ban, mass deportations, etc. Racists are less concerned with policies that help themselves, and more focused on policies that hurt those they hate. I'm not saying they are smart or sensible.

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I understood your comment, Robin.

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Exactly.

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Bingo.

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I especially love that she said that fascist “leaders” of other countries want Trump to win.

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And then there is Vance......JD Vance is even more dishonest than Donald Trump. The old guy lies a lot but often he can't tell the difference between fantasy and reality. He regularly thinks he's in some other state.

Vance is a calculating deceiver who has now admitted that he lied for political advantage.

Note also that his use of "firsthand accounts" is also a carefully constructed lie. I'm sure he has constituents who have forwarded the rumors. But he's only heard them repeat the rumors firsthand. If they'd have given firsthand proof, he'd have shown it.

He's a compulsive liar who spent his whole life lying for advantage.

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Jay, check into a local story that just ran here in Texas in the DFW metroplex. Tarrant county was trying to shut down some college polling locations claiming they were a waste of money. Of course, they were the colleges with the highest numbers of students of color. Students rose up and went to the meeting to demand that this clear act of voter suppression not stand. And….they won! So proud of my Texas college students fighting for their rights right now!

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Regarding CNN's first debate poll:

"She won the debate 63/37."

That's fantastic. But still, is there some kind of way we can have brain scans done for that 37%.

Because I'm not understanding how anyone can watch methane mouth thinking he's at all normal. I mean, I was exhausted after that debate just listening to his childlike rants.

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author

People who are for Trump wind up watching a very different debate.

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It's frustrating that so many other countries have had women leaders but there are still those in this country that doubt she can "handle" the job just because she's a woman. I will make one observation when it comes to handling male foreign leaders: her performance against TFG was strong and commanding however to handle him is to push his buttons and get under his skin. She did that very well but IMO it wouldn't have proved to the doubters that she can be strong against our adversaries. I have confidence in her but I can see how this debate still leaves that question in some people's mind.

However how anyone can look at TFG and think he's the right candidate to deal with foreign leaders is beyond me. Harris will at least have compentent staff in her corner to help navigate the tough jobs and that's what I tell people who still waiver because of these things.

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Misogyny is a helluva drug.

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Sep 12·edited Sep 12

IKR?

Even more frustrating when those comments come from women. Him over her because you have some doubts? SMH

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Self hate

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Nothing infuriates me more than women dragging down other women. Women who engage in that are completely controlled by patriarchy and usually feeble-minded.

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agreed

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Have to ask, why do we give a fuck what any fucking poll says, especially one in any way connected to the corporate media? As far as I’m concerned, they can all FUCK ALL THE WAY OFF, FOR FUCKING EVER! I will trust Dick Cheney and Newt Gingrich before I EVER trust the NYT or WAPO or the like to tell me the sky is blue. They are at best complicit in this fucking fascist takeover. I almost loathe them more than Donny Fuckface. He’s batshit crazy. THEY SHOULD FUCKING KNOW BETTER!

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Don’t be shy Kate. Tell us how you really feel.

😀😜

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Let it out, Kate, let it ALL out!

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My comment clearly shows it’s a good thing I never entered the diplomatic world! 😉

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You go! Well said.

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You just articulated exactly how I feel. 🤯

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I know it’s vulgar, but I’m done being the polite, mildly critical lady so many expect us to be. And the corporate media has done nothing to make me respect them. I know we often say you have to earn respect, which is true. But I’ve always tried to greet a new person, business, etc. with respect. Then they have to earn keeping my respect. The media in the US has failed so epically (and, I believe, deliberately) that there is absolutely no road to redemption in my eyes.

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“ The fact that Harris is a woman of color therefore may account for much of the hesitancy from swing voters. To clear the plausibility bar, such candidates often have to affirmatively prove that they have what it takes, and they aren’t given a presumptive passing score like white male candidates often get.”. IOW racists are gonna racist. These ephemeral “swing voters” are looking more ridiculous every day.

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I call them the “willfully ignorant” when I’m feeling generous.

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I'd be interested to know how Trump/Harris are polling among voters in red states and in swing states since polls don't necessarily predict outcome; e.g., Hilary won the popular vote but Trump still ended up in the Whitehouse. Sure, it feels good to know Harris is trending up but is she trending up in the states that matter for the election?

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The battlegrounds are all very close. I feel a bit more confident of Wisconsin and Michigan. But without Pennsylvania or at least Georgia or North Carolina, it will be hard to make the math work.

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That was before VP Harris mentioned the 800,000 Pennsylvanians of Polish descent who may not take kindly to their former homeland being next on Putin's hit list.

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That is a good question and one that makes me very nervous

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Me, too. It seems everyone is getting carried away with poll numbers. It's nice to know Harris is trending up as well as new voter registrations but how does that translate to the general election and electoral college votes?

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I wrote about the importance of the shift in North Carolina for this very reason over at The Status Kuo. If Harris can put that state into play, the electoral math changes considerably.

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We’re working our asses off down here and so are many others around the country! I know you know this, Jay, just had to give a shout from the trenches! 💙

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We’re working hard here in NC to make that a reality. Enjoyed your article on NC. Thanks!

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I wish people wouldn’t refer to the last 9 years as a nightmare. The last 3 1/2 years have resulted in great successes despite the irrational ravings from the Republican sidelines AND the incompetence of elected Republicans. I’m fully on board with the idea that this election will have far lasting consequences, but let’s remember that Trump has lost consistently since Dems failed to realize that Hilary Clinton was not the shoe-in that was anticipated. Kamala Harris should be proud of her association with Joe Biden.

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There is a rotten smell in my hometown of Tucson. Why? Trump is here speaking at the Ronstadt Center. Too bad Linda is not here to beat the shit out of him so that we could clean it up and get rid of the great farter as he showed and smelled at his recent trial.

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She did vigorously complain.

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As vigorously as her condition permits. I do not want to think about what the effort cost her.

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As the Harris campaign stated in a fundraising email, “Debates don’t win elections.”

Only votes do.

I'm going to add...Only if those votes get counted fairly. That the key and with all the shenanigans the Republicans are pulling who knows what's going to happen. Let's keep that in mind as we head towards November.

And as a side note...My sympathy to the Kennedy family for having to deal with the disgrace that is RFK,Jr. If you can take the time to read the comment from HardlLb on this thread, it's a good piece.

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It's not just Trump and Vance

we need to vote OUT! We

MUST flip the house and

secure or expand the Senate;

the Senate is in jeopardy!

We have to give Madame

President the backing in both

places to move forward and

lift our people, all of them, up.

Vote blue up & down ballot!

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