Fight For Five To Help Flip The House Blue

The path to a Democratic House majority could come from wins in these five races

Days before he stepped aside as the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden gave his first indication, after weeks of defiance, that there was in fact a scenario in which he would step aside, namely, that if his team

”...came back and said, ‘There’s no way you can win.’”

Adding:

“No one is saying that. No poll says that.”

Ultimately, of course, he was convinced polls did in fact say that, but as it turned out, it wasn’t just whether he could win or not.

As Biden himself conceded in his first interview after he stepped aside:

"A number of my Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate thought that I was going to hurt them in the races.”

And reporting has since confirmed that that’s precisely what Nancy Pelosi communicated to the President in a private phone call.

Per CNN:

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately told President Joe Biden in a recent conversation that polling shows that the president cannot defeat Donald Trump and that Biden could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House in November if he continues seeking a second term, according to four sources briefed on the call.

Prior to the June 27th Biden-Trump debate, while Biden ran consistently even or slightly behind Trump, downballot Democrats performed surprisingly well, generally outperforming Biden in their own polling.

But that began to shift after the debate, and for many Democratic leaders, including Pelosi, that was the break glass moment.

Now, as the Democratic Party has a new standard bearer and a huge surge in enthusiasm, there are signs that that downballot Democrats are benefitting, particularly in Democrats’ effort to retake the House.

In the six+ weeks since Kamala Harris launched her campaign for President, according to FiveThirtyEight, polling on the congressional generic ballot, which measures which party voters want to control the House of Representatives, went from Republicans +.6%

To now Democrats +2.6%.

This represents Dems’ highest generic ballot lead since May of 2023 and is about where Republicans ended up in the generic ballot polling average in 2022 prior to winning House races by 2.8% for a net gain of 13 seats.

Democrats need a net gain of just 4 seats to retake the House in 2024.

And Democrats smell blood in the water. Now, after raising a remarkable $540 million since she launched on July 21, Kamala Harris is reportedly transferring $25 million to help downballot Democrats, including $10 million to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which is tasked with winning back the House for Democrats.

On the path toward ensuring President Kamala Harris has a robust House majority to help pass her agenda when she takes over the presidency next year, we have identified five House races we see as close but winnable and hope you will join us in supporting these fantastic candidates.

Mondaire Jones: NY-17

While in 2022 the red wave failed to materialize nationally, Republicans did overperform in blue states such as New York, where local issues drove Republicans to unexpectedly flip four seats red.

With Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket this November, Democrats are hoping to reciprocate, including flipping NY-17, where former Rep. Mondaire Jones is running against first-term Republican Mike Lawler, who portrayed himself as a moderate but is not hiding his support for Trump and Vance.

Jones’ race for NY-17 has been identified by Cook Political Report as a Toss-Up and the DCCC sees it as a top-tier pick-up in their Red to Blue program.

Per the DCCC:

• Former Congressman Mondaire Jones was raised in Section 8 housing in Rockland County by a single mother. A former litigator for Westchester County, Mondaire defended correctional officers and helped make communities safer by taking guns away from dangerous people. Mondaire was a member of the most productive Congress in modern history, capping prescription drug costs for seniors and delivering hundreds of millions of dollars to the Lower Hudson Valley for schools, housing, and health care. He also delivered record law enforcement funding to support our police officers, staunchly defended Israel, and worked to block members of Congress from getting rich off the stock market. Now, Mondaire is running to return to Congress to finish the work he started to lower costs for everyday people, defend democracy, improve public safety, and stop Republicans from banning abortion.

Watch Jones’ ad here:

Donate to Mondaire Jones for Congress.

Will Rollins: CA-41

In an unexpected twist, this year a Democratic majority will likely hinge on Dems flipping red districts in blue California.

In 2022, Democrat Will Rollins narrowly lost to 30-year incumbent Ken Calvert in CA-41, a southern California district southeast of Los Angeles.

For more about Calvert, check out Rollins’ brutal ad hitting the Republican for using his position in Congress to benefit himself, not his constituents.

Like Jones, Rollins’ race is rated a Toss-up and is seen as a top pick-up opportunity by the DCCC:

• Will Rollins is a former federal prosecutor who has spent his career taking on counterterrorism cases and working to keep Inland Empire residents safe. For five years, Will served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Terrorism and Export Crimes Section of the National Security Division, where he helped prosecute some of the insurrectionists who attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. Additionally, he helped the FBI respond to threats from ISIS, the Sinaloa cartel, and Al Qaeda terrorists. Will was the Democratic nominee for Congress in CA-41 in 2022, and significantly overperformed the fundamentals of the district, coming closer than any candidate has to unseating the 30-year incumbent Ken Calvert in over a decade – and he’ll finish the job this November.

Donate to Will Rollins for Congress.

Derek Tran: CA-45

Another prime California pickup opportunity is in CA-45, where Derek Tran, a U.S. Army veteran and the son of Vietnamese refugees, is running to unseat first-term Republican Michelle Steel. 

The Cook Political Report recently upgraded this race to a toss-up, and the DCCC sees it as a top pick-up opportunity.

• Derek Tran is the son of Vietnamese refugees who fled a communist regime for the promise of the American Dream. A father of three, U.S. Army veteran, and small business owner, Derek deeply understands what’s at stake for Southern California’s working-class families – from the cost of living and prescription drugs to the threats on reproductive freedom and our democracy at large – and is well-equipped to advocate for their concerns in Congress. As a consumer rights attorney, he spent years fighting on behalf of workers getting ripped off and discriminated against by corporations – an experience that further shaped his call to service. Orange County families deserve a representative who will work for them instead of protecting special interests and playing partisan games, and Tran is equipped to deliver that message to the voters in this diverse Biden +6.8 district with a broad coalition of support, impressive fundraising apparatus, and compelling contrast with the far-right incumbent.

Watch Tran talk about his service to the country below:

Donate to Derek Tran For Congress.

Volunteer for Derek Tran for Congress.

Kirsten Engel: AZ-06

As Kamala Harris makes a play for Arizona after Joe Biden won it in 2020 by just .4%, we hope she can help Kirsten Engel, who is running against first-term Republican Juan Ciscomani, pull off a win in this swing district outside of Tucson.

Engel released a powerful ad calling out Ciscomani’s Christian nationalist roots:

Engel’s race is yet another rated a Toss-up and a top-tier pick-up opportunity, per the DCCC:

• Kirsten Engel is a mom, an environmental attorney, and a former State Legislator who has fought for years to restore funding to public schools, protect Arizona's natural resources, and make her community safer. In the Arizona State Capitol, she built a reputation as a pragmatic leader who will roll up her sleeves to deliver results for Arizona families. Kirsten was less than 6,000 votes shy of winning this seat last cycle, and that was before Juan Ciscomani’s extreme voting record of restricting abortion access and enabling dangerous MAGA Republicans at every turn. This Biden-won district is a top pickup opportunity for Democrats this November.

Donate to Kirsten Engel For Congress.

Yadira Caraveo: CO-08

Dr. Yadira Caraveo is a pediatrician and a first-term Democratic member of Congress, serving Colorado’s 8th district north of Denver.

This race is rated a Toss-up by Cook Political Report and is considered by the DCCC as a Frontline Seat to hold in order to win back the Democratic House majority. 

You can see her first ad in the race below.

As Caraveo puts it on her website.

• For Dr. Yadira Caraveo, becoming a pediatrician, an accomplished legislator, and a fighter for middle- and working-class families in Congress started with a dream: her parents’ dream. Yadira’s parents came to Colorado from a small town in Mexico, looking for a better life.  They didn’t have much education or much money, but they knew hard work and caring for others are the values that build strong communities and family. They raised their four children with those values — on a construction worker’s pay in the Adams County home where they still live. All four were able to go to college and graduate in the span of a single generation, an incredible testament to the American Dream.

Donate to Yadira Caraveo For Congress. 

As the Kamala Harris campaign lifts all boats this November, we are hopeful that Democrats will be able to retake the House to provide a majority to get President Harris’s agenda passed. But it’s going to take all of us. We hope you will consider donating and supporting these candidates in any way you can in the final 9 weeks to Election Day.