Bernie was beating Hillary in the polls against Trump in 2016 until the corporate Democrats shut him down. The more Biden campaigns like Sanders and not like a corporate Democrat the better Biden's chances are at winning.
I'm very curious to see how these "double doubters" voted in the mid-terms, special elections and referendum elections since 2020 - that have consistently gone for Democrats - if that's possible. Is that an indicator at all?
I also can't help but doubt polls that say 30% or so of GOP voters choosing Haley will go for Biden. It's anecdotal, sure, but I've known highly-educated, life-long conservatives that despise Trump, in 2016 who voted GOP for every office, but wrote in Romney. And probably write-in Haley this time.
Biden capturing those Haley voters are up against a largely successful 30+ year GOP effort to brand Democrats as commie/anti-christ/liberals/socialists/etc. And the majority of them are doing much better since 2020, yet facts won't get thru to many.
I suspect that many of the motivations for who these folks vote for will boil down to self-image. Consider: you have been a life long conservative. And all these people out there are calling conservatives dumb, unable to employ basic thinking skills, uneducated, picturing theme in memes with having only a couple of teeth, folks right out of Deliverance. You know that's not you. Do you grit your teeth and vote as if you are NOT conservative or do you grit your teeth and vote with the folks for whom the stereotype is true.
I propose that we liberals, and the media, stop calling the current party of trump "conservatives." Call them what they are, REACTIONARIES. Now you, the life-long conservative, don't need feel that the libs hate you. Much easier to join with them to defeat the threat to democracy that the reactionaries are promising.
Until we figure out how to deal with the propaganda coming from major anti-democracy world powers like Russia, a significant proportion of our electorate will be unhappy with the pro-democracy candidate. The propaganda is cyberwarfare and we have zero answer for it.
Agree that's a big concern, but I think he's still benefitting from low info voters who just know the name. There is plenty of time to educate people about RFK Jr. But the larger point is that I wanted to dig into the impact on double doubters on the 3rd party candidates but it felt too big a task for this essay. Perhaps one down the road.
What a worthless POS this article is. Maybe we could try encouraging voters towards Biden instead of the constant wringing of hands. Focus on what we can build on and campaign on to save the Democracy instead of dire warnings of what might come. It’s an election and we all know that either candidate can fucking win. We don’t need to be reminded of that. How about constructive feedback on how to make sure that Little Donny Fuckface doesn’t become 47!
Honestly, sounds like you didn't read the whole thing. This isn't a hand wringing post, it is an optimistic one about how these crucial swing voters inherently lean toward Biden and that there is plenty of room (and time) for him to grow (while Trump is much closer to his ceiling.) It also ends on an optimistic note about the election moving forward.
I did. It’s just for me, the repeated beginnings of so many articles leaves a despair that becomes increasingly difficult to lose even as article after article try to convey hope and ideas. It’s been forever since the articles begin with anything new. And I believe it turns many away without reading further or without some hope or how to help. I think we could be more encouraging without going into roughly the same warnings over and over again. I’m seeing more and more comments on many articles and posts that show people have become worn out and are starting to believe that these dire warnings are extremely exaggerated. And that really terrifies me.
We continue to see an effort to convince ourselves that Biden is going to win despite the latest polls in swing states, which consistently go to Trump. The latest refrain is that the polling is fundamentally flawed and is consistently underrating Biden's eventual performance in the general election. This reminds me a lot of 2016, when we kept convincing ourselves that Hilary was a shoo-in despite her substantial negatives, right up until election night, when everything turned to shock. Here's the reality: many voters are unhappy with this choice, but only one person can give them a different choice - Joe Biden. He can do what he said he wanted to do - be a transitional president. I am confident that just about any candidate the Dems would put up if he did would trounce Trump.
“The latest refrain is that the polling is fundamentally flawed and is consistently underrating Biden's eventual performance in the general election.”
The polls HAVE consistently under rated Democrats performance in all of the recent special elections, in the mid terms (red wave? what red wave?), in the presidential election last time. They’ve been wrong (often by double digits) about Trump’s performance in the primaries this time around.
When they that consistent a streak of being wrong it’s ridiculous then CLEARLY THAY ARE INDEED FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED.
I agree that this year is different because Trump now has a four-year track record in office. But it doesn't change my opinion; if anything, it underscores my opinion. Eight years ago, when he had no track record, he was behind in the polls, although people like Michael Moore were warning us that he could win. Today we have his track record, yet he is ahead in the polls in the swing states. Yet we keep trying to convince ourselves that the polls must be wrong. What if the polls are right?
I am at a loss to understand what the double doubters are hoping for. What do they want in a candidate? Trump has proven what he will do and what he stands for. Seriously, what do they want?
They need permission to vote Dem at this point, honestly. I think they're waiting to be pushed over that edge. Or at the very least to sit the presidential out so as not to help Trump. I think Pence and Hutchinson and all those former Trump officials sounding the Trump alarm are starting to give them that permission. And Trump himself is helping as well with his unhinged rallies.
They’ll never admit they were wrong or even just followed the first time around. So they will stick with what they know is a bad choice the second time around even if it means things get vastly worse for them.
Same very old story. Voting for someone is a luxury, voting against someone is a necessity. In my voting life, true in the 70s, true now.
I know I will vote blue.
Bernie was beating Hillary in the polls against Trump in 2016 until the corporate Democrats shut him down. The more Biden campaigns like Sanders and not like a corporate Democrat the better Biden's chances are at winning.
I'm very curious to see how these "double doubters" voted in the mid-terms, special elections and referendum elections since 2020 - that have consistently gone for Democrats - if that's possible. Is that an indicator at all?
I also can't help but doubt polls that say 30% or so of GOP voters choosing Haley will go for Biden. It's anecdotal, sure, but I've known highly-educated, life-long conservatives that despise Trump, in 2016 who voted GOP for every office, but wrote in Romney. And probably write-in Haley this time.
Biden capturing those Haley voters are up against a largely successful 30+ year GOP effort to brand Democrats as commie/anti-christ/liberals/socialists/etc. And the majority of them are doing much better since 2020, yet facts won't get thru to many.
I suspect that many of the motivations for who these folks vote for will boil down to self-image. Consider: you have been a life long conservative. And all these people out there are calling conservatives dumb, unable to employ basic thinking skills, uneducated, picturing theme in memes with having only a couple of teeth, folks right out of Deliverance. You know that's not you. Do you grit your teeth and vote as if you are NOT conservative or do you grit your teeth and vote with the folks for whom the stereotype is true.
I propose that we liberals, and the media, stop calling the current party of trump "conservatives." Call them what they are, REACTIONARIES. Now you, the life-long conservative, don't need feel that the libs hate you. Much easier to join with them to defeat the threat to democracy that the reactionaries are promising.
Until we figure out how to deal with the propaganda coming from major anti-democracy world powers like Russia, a significant proportion of our electorate will be unhappy with the pro-democracy candidate. The propaganda is cyberwarfare and we have zero answer for it.
Until Kennedy is factored in more, this is all useless. Kennedy has more support than is being admitted.
Agree that's a big concern, but I think he's still benefitting from low info voters who just know the name. There is plenty of time to educate people about RFK Jr. But the larger point is that I wanted to dig into the impact on double doubters on the 3rd party candidates but it felt too big a task for this essay. Perhaps one down the road.
What a worthless POS this article is. Maybe we could try encouraging voters towards Biden instead of the constant wringing of hands. Focus on what we can build on and campaign on to save the Democracy instead of dire warnings of what might come. It’s an election and we all know that either candidate can fucking win. We don’t need to be reminded of that. How about constructive feedback on how to make sure that Little Donny Fuckface doesn’t become 47!
Honestly, sounds like you didn't read the whole thing. This isn't a hand wringing post, it is an optimistic one about how these crucial swing voters inherently lean toward Biden and that there is plenty of room (and time) for him to grow (while Trump is much closer to his ceiling.) It also ends on an optimistic note about the election moving forward.
I did. It’s just for me, the repeated beginnings of so many articles leaves a despair that becomes increasingly difficult to lose even as article after article try to convey hope and ideas. It’s been forever since the articles begin with anything new. And I believe it turns many away without reading further or without some hope or how to help. I think we could be more encouraging without going into roughly the same warnings over and over again. I’m seeing more and more comments on many articles and posts that show people have become worn out and are starting to believe that these dire warnings are extremely exaggerated. And that really terrifies me.
There are plenty of articles out there that focus on helping Biden win.
We continue to see an effort to convince ourselves that Biden is going to win despite the latest polls in swing states, which consistently go to Trump. The latest refrain is that the polling is fundamentally flawed and is consistently underrating Biden's eventual performance in the general election. This reminds me a lot of 2016, when we kept convincing ourselves that Hilary was a shoo-in despite her substantial negatives, right up until election night, when everything turned to shock. Here's the reality: many voters are unhappy with this choice, but only one person can give them a different choice - Joe Biden. He can do what he said he wanted to do - be a transitional president. I am confident that just about any candidate the Dems would put up if he did would trounce Trump.
Jerry, the key difference from 2016 is we have already seen Trump as president. That is where the 2016 comparison falls short and really doesn’t work.
“The latest refrain is that the polling is fundamentally flawed and is consistently underrating Biden's eventual performance in the general election.”
The polls HAVE consistently under rated Democrats performance in all of the recent special elections, in the mid terms (red wave? what red wave?), in the presidential election last time. They’ve been wrong (often by double digits) about Trump’s performance in the primaries this time around.
When they that consistent a streak of being wrong it’s ridiculous then CLEARLY THAY ARE INDEED FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED.
I agree that this year is different because Trump now has a four-year track record in office. But it doesn't change my opinion; if anything, it underscores my opinion. Eight years ago, when he had no track record, he was behind in the polls, although people like Michael Moore were warning us that he could win. Today we have his track record, yet he is ahead in the polls in the swing states. Yet we keep trying to convince ourselves that the polls must be wrong. What if the polls are right?
After The Ascension . .
It was a Rematch no one really wanted
as if Rule by Nursing Home taunted .
proving Democracy doesn't work .. two old
guys in their own ways jerks . . and later
Memories of actually have a Choice
tormentingly Haunted . .
of Donald The First . .. # Heil Hair! style . ..
I am at a loss to understand what the double doubters are hoping for. What do they want in a candidate? Trump has proven what he will do and what he stands for. Seriously, what do they want?
They need permission to vote Dem at this point, honestly. I think they're waiting to be pushed over that edge. Or at the very least to sit the presidential out so as not to help Trump. I think Pence and Hutchinson and all those former Trump officials sounding the Trump alarm are starting to give them that permission. And Trump himself is helping as well with his unhinged rallies.
We should try to get all these votes.
They’ll never admit they were wrong or even just followed the first time around. So they will stick with what they know is a bad choice the second time around even if it means things get vastly worse for them.