What voter will tell pollsters that's why HE didn't vote for HER???? It's so much easier - and believable - to say it was the economy. I'll bet a lot of those young men and young Latino men don't do much in the way of grocery shopping anyway.
Women innately know this is why Harris didn't win.
there is also Harris being a part of the Biden administration. I spoke to several young people who said they and their friends would not vote for Trump, but also could not vote for Harris because of Biden’s stance on the situation in Israel, and they couldn’t determine her stance on that issue.
And, then, how many Palestinians are voters in the US and felt much the same way?
I think you're right, but the biggest part of the problem was failing to communicate the pressure that Biden and other leaders were putting on Netanyahu, who is the source of the problem. Netanyahu would not listen, would not budge. Biden could have and should have reduced and modified U.S. military support to Israel, but he could not be seen as abandoning Israel.
The male T vote - young, Latino - buys into the Macho Nacho Man. It affirms their superiority needs.
We women know this drill, baby! Turns out Kamala was torpedoed by "friendly Dem fire." They couldn't vote for the criminal, and they wouldn't vote for a woman, esp. a Black woman.
So by staying home they voted for the criminal. Remember, not doing something is actively doing something. We all are paying that selfish price.
We all know that voter suppression, either directly by preventing citizens from registering or indirectly by simply making it harder and harder for minorities to vote, has gotten steadily worse since the SCOTUS eviscerated the Voting Rights Act in ?2006. Qasim Rashid has addressed this issue in his Substack column
Absolutely. If the VP had been a straight white man when Biden dropped out who seriously thinks the race would have ended the way it did? It breaks my heart to believe it, but no amount of “it’s the economy” will convince me otherwise.
Exactly! I’ve read only one male commentator even broach the subject of a Black woman. Plus, what about the non voters who protested because of Gaza? Mike Huckabee? Really!? He’s gonna make it better for Palestinians?
The TPT ex governor has already declared his colors. What ever the future of felon of Israel, wants the felon of the United States will give him. When did we turn into an aider and abettor of the latest form of genocide?
Agreed, while this is a well-written piece, how can anyone look at these numbers and not see that race and gender played a role? I think writers avoid that subject because 1.) hardly anyone seems to ask about it in polls 2.) even if they do, people will lie or be in denial about their own feelings and 3.) no one knows how to fix it.
There are many females that didn't vote for her also, for the same reasons. Unfortunately, there are many females that are just as misogynistic and/or bigoted as their male counterparts.
They feel threatened by feminism or by any strong, accomplished, independent woman. Too many of them depend on men, whether it's financially, emotionally, or security of any type. And, as you noted, too many of them are racist as well.
Americans voted the way monkeys do. From a recent article in New Scientist:
ad spelling.
Monkeys in politics
At the time of writing, the US presidential election is imminent and Feedback is trapped in an endless cycle of news stories reporting polls, pundits endlessly reinterpreting said polls, and then more polls. It is a terribly long-winded way of saying “we don’t know what’s going to happen”.
Now, our colleague Alexandra Thompson has highlighted an important new contribution to the field of psephological forecasting: a paper titled “Monkeys predict US elections“.
Sadly, this doesn’t involve placing an infinite number of monkeys into voting booths. Instead, researchers showed monkeys pairs of photos of candidates from senatorial and gubernatorial elections.
The monkeys spent more time looking at the losers than at the winners. This seems like a peculiar form of torture for politicians: not only did you lose, it says, but monkeys stared at you judgmentally.
The study extended previous work showing that children can identify the winners and losers in elections based purely on photos of the candidates. Both the children and the monkeys were picking based on face shape, with square jawlines being the key sign of an improved chance of victory.
Who would do such a study? Three of the researchers are at the University of Pennsylvania, but the fourth is based at a Portuguese institution called the Champalimaud Center for the Unknown. Feedback isn’t quite sure what to make of that.
It does seem that unconscious factors play into our voting decisions. It is often claimed that taller candidates tend to win US elections, and there appears to be some truth to this.
A 2013 study pulled data on all US presidential elections to date and found that taller candidates won more of the popular vote – although this didn’t translate to them being more likely to actually be elected. In what can only be described as double nominative determinism, one of the authors is a social psychologist called Abraham Buunk.
Readers who are invested in the outcome of the US election are hereby advised: whatever you do, don’t look up Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s respective heights.
There was big movement of women towards Trump as well. But I agree, a black woman (who didn't do well in the 2020 primaries) was too much for America. I saw several black men interviewed in the days before the election saying that a woman wouldn't be "strong enough". Misogyny runs strongly through American cultures, and especially in African American culture. An hypermachoism is a selling point for too many Americans.
Yes- and why are so few writers talking about this- misogyny and racism?? ! Isn’t that another explanation for why in many states people voted to protect abortion and at the same time voted for HIM??
I don't disagree, but given the tremendous capacity on the right to influence through intimidation and peer pressure, especially among white and Latino men, I think we should also consider the possibility of a subtle, or not so subtle, acceptance of obeying in advance. If I have qualms about voting for the candidate favored by the cohort I most identify with, I have to consider what the consequences would be if I choose not to go along with the crowd. In a contest like this that is ultimately about power--who will have it going forward, who won't--it is difficult to disentangle obeying in advance from hedging your bets. Also, if you have access to the New Yorker, there is a really eye opening article by Jill Lepore in the 11/11 issue titled The Artificial State, about the influence of AI in our elections. It's been going on longer than you probably think. If you can't access it, try going through your local library. I think everyone should read it, especially the majority of New Yorker subscribers who hardly read it.
Respectfully, not everything is mostly race. Especially if you can’t pay your mortgage and buy food for your kids. I keep trying to help you Democrats by voting for your candidates. Now please don’t mistakenly make it all about race or it will cost again in ‘26. And please do away with making Karen a racial white slur (the #1 name most frequently occurring name in a block of important swing voters). Perhaps that was a Steve Bannon plant - ya’ think?
Same. Especially on TV (including MSNBC) where they often unnecessarily show his ugly face regardless of what topic is under discussion. PLEASE REDUCE the amount of ugly time!!!
I completely agree that showing Trumps picture and even writing his name is continuing the cigarette addiction mentality of this vile, unworthy and toxic
During the campaign, most TV stations used Trump's photo from 2016. This is an 8 yr old photo, and in no way depicts the way he looks in reality today.
Agree, but at least Jay used a recent picture. I hate when anyone uses an older picture of him, where he looks younger, healthier, and slightly less orange and deranged. They need to stop pretending he still looks like he did in 2016.
Agreed...we give the convicted felon and all his MAGA enablers SO much free promotion, added oxygen, and rent-free space in our heads.
We don't realize that the more we mention them, EVEN to refute/disparage, etc. the more we enable what's called the 'illusory truth effect' and per cognitive science, and worse, when we negate something, we actually do the opposite and further reinforce it!
As one other commenter pointed out, no one in an exit poll would admit that they simply will not vote for a woman president. The misogyny in this country is much worse than anyone admits. We women know the truth. It was less about race (we’ve seen that a black male can be elected) but rather about gender. No one is going to convince me otherwise.
In my previous congressional district, MAGA Mike Garcia narrowly beat a (Democratic) woman twice. This time he ran against a man and guess what: he lost. I seriously think misogyny is at work here.
In Iowa, Republican women seem to do well- governor, senator, two seats in congress. However, Democratic women have never made it past local or state elections.
Why do you think women automatically make better candidates than men? I take it that in 4 years time if the presidential race was Tulsi Gabbard v Gavin Newsome you will be voting for Tulsi. By your own logic if you don't then you're a misogynist.
I love Biden, but he was was done. No one talks about that either, he” should have” dropped out way earlier. Kinda like RBG. KH was so tied to Biden and his policies though she tried to create space.
Allegedly. Fidel Castro (remember him?) once said, "The United States will elect an black man before they will elect a woman." I'd like to emend that to a "base born felonious idiot before...."
Sorry, I do not buy his “economic policies” swung Latino and young men to Trump. WHAT POLICIES????? It was his gross, fake, vulgar “machismo,” and that of all his surrogates. It is pure fake man, put down the little woman, garbage. Plus they got a bonus gift of voting against a black woman, too. I do not buy the economy, at least for that cohort. Trump could not string two coherent sentences together about the economy or anything else. What was he selling to them about the economy? I hope every single one of those male Trump voters get economically skewered these next few years.
The only policy Trump had to bring up at a rally was "were you better off under me?" At once, people had this imagined memory picture that busily deleted all the really bad stuff (COVID, family and friends dying, freezer trucks as makeshift morgues...lockdown) and the excited people around you are also busily re-enforcing all the good stuff under Trump until a person without a trained memory can be convinced that things were not only better under Trump, but far better than they actually were. Human memory, when it is properly trained and used, is an incredibly useful tool. But memory is also very selective and completely nonreliable in that it will "remember" what it wants to and much of that depends of the kind of memory, the circumstances and a host of other factors.
I agree as well. This is anecdotal, but I believe it's true. Many Latinos who immigrated legally resent those who came illegally and are competing for their jobs - particularly in construction. The legal immigrants want those who are undocumented to go away, but don't realize trump's plan on deportation may force them or their family members to leave also. I believe they were duped into voting for trump and will come to regret it if/when deportations are carried out.
And we've all heard about the myriad of Google searches on tariffs. Low info voters across the board believed trump's claim that the exporting countries paid the tariffs, and they are in for a very rude awakening when the cost of imported goods goes up, not down.
Actually, they may be deported also, since the monster who will be in charge announced it was much easier to just deport the entire family unit then he won't get the outrage the last time he tried this. Nothing like putting a baby separator in charge.....again.
"Actually" they won't, Trump and his administration value legal immigration. The fact is, it will be impossible to deport all illegal immigrants. They will concentrate on the criminals, human and drug traffickers, rapists etc that the outgoing administration failed to deal with.
Don't sweetheart me, jerk. Nice to know that jerks just mansplain because they feel, in the present MAGA aka 21st c. Fascism, they can. The stench of your comment will do you well with the new admin. Which post are you applying for?
Thank you for giving us the stats and analyzing them for us.
I look forward to your piece on right wing disinformation and how we cope with it going forward. It is creating voting blocs in this country that have not existed in any large numbers prior to now.
One of those blocs I call the "InCel Males." As more and more men (particularly young men) feel that it is their right to behave in socially unacceptable ways, more and more men of that stripe experience rejection by the women whom they desire. Any young male mammal in mating season is willing to fight to the death for the chance to mate. What we are seeing is FRUSTRATION, and the Freudian component of this election cannot be ignored.
An aspect to the last few presidential elections that frustrates ME is that the Republicans have become experts at taking credit for the previous Democratic administration having repaired the economy and gotten it ticking again, while blaming an incoming Democratic administration for the results of their own malfeasance while in office. I would hate to imagine that Republicans adopt it as a permanent strategy to drill a hole in the boat just before leaving office and then blaming Democrats for the leak.
Exactly right about the economy. Our economy is right now the best in the world, and in two months Trump will jump in front of the existing parade and falsely claim credit for leading it.
I'd also like to include misogyny and racism as part of the equation. Young men seem to be more inclined to engage in misogyny, especially as young women lean more left, apply for colleges and graduate in numbers larger than men do, are marrying later, don't want to be with MAGA-type men, are putting off having children or deciding not to have children, are making headways up the ladder in their careers, are leaving religious organizations where men dominate and believe women are second class, and in general, are not wanting to be dominated and controlled by men. In general, women outlive men and most divorced women do not remarry. When Trump won, social media exploded with these same men talking about looking forward to controlling women. Too many men are totally messed up when it comes to anything involving sex, such as sexual identity and gender. Men commit most of the crimes of rape, pedophilia, sexual assault, sexual harassment, sexual discrimination, and on and on and on. Too many other men look the other way, ignore it and refuse to confront it. Anti-abortion laws are another way to control women using religion as a shield. Both misogyny and racism are systemic in US institutions and culture and change is slow. Young, white, religious men lean into racism because they lean into the masculine view of white, male superiority. It's an ugly truth that's never really been confronted because white men run every large institution. We also have done nothing to confront Trump's identity politics. White, Christian, straight males are seen as "normal" and the natural way of the world instead of also being a form of identity politics. It's a toxic combination but it can be marginalized.
A t-i-ii-i-iny hopeful sign coming from the moderate Republicans is the vote against Rick Scott as the Senate majority leader. So.... that's something. It's not that John Thune is that much of a gift - but at least he appears to be marginally more sane than Scott.
Something I find curious as Trump begins to announce his cabinet picks is how shocked Republicans are acting. Why? What did they expect? That he will surround himself by intelligent, competent people? Why are they so surprised? And if they block his appointments, there is no doubt in my mind that he'll just do his usual thing - bully them into approving them, no matter how ridiculous.
Thanks Jay, I think a bit of the problem for overall turnout that I haven’t seen anyone mention is the feeling of many voters that they didn’t really count. If you don’t live in a swing state then you’re a second class citizen. I of course know what drives this and as long as we are bound by the electoral college system it won’t change but 6 million democratic voters were told for the past 12 months by the MSM that they (swing state voters) were the only thing that mattered.
And don’t even talk about being on the Left Coast. Sometimes it feels like the national elections are called before the polls are even closed in California and Oregon and Washington. I can’t even imagine how Hawai’i voters feel.
So, the voters who wanted ‘a better economy’ (even though they already had one) voted in a guy who will make their economy worse, again. Make it make sense!
Unfortunately I think one important aspect you are missing is how “terrified“ some people are of transgender humans. They are terrified of their children and grandchildren even knowing these folks exist, much less being “exposed to them“. I know firsthand from some who have voted for this reason. And you see it in the recent focus group results published by the New York Times re 20-somethings. This is horrific. People need to be educated about gender science and sexuality spectrums and how harmless this minority of people are and how important it is to their quality of life to be able to live as their true selves..
So the 10 million vote difference between Trump and Harris is not holding up as votes continue to be tallied, and the presumption of significantly less voter turnout is also not holding up too well. You are right to point out that the early predictions based on initial statistical assessments may prove to be off by quite a bit, but the unfortunate end result doesn’t change. So in the end, there is work to be done to regain some lost ground here, assuming we still have some semblance of a democracy to work with after Trump implements his slash and burn agenda.
I haven't read anything, anywhere about the effects monopolies have had on the price of food and everyday supplies. That right there is what drive prices up and it's what folks have been complaining about: EGGS! GAS! WHATEVER MY THING IS! It all costs more because the giant corporations are not being stopped from raising prices. BREAK UP THE MONOPOLIES!!!!! For crying out loud. And talk about that more!
look, votecast is not primarily an AP project. NORC-Votecast is a project of the university of Chicago. It releases public data files for the votecast results. They are archived into a single zip file. when you unzip it, you will find spreadsheets, XML files, and pdf files explaining the results, counts, and the survey questions. Quoting an AP article that talks about some votecast numbers IS NOT ACCESSING VOTECAST. You have to go to the university and download the votecast file for "election 2024" to see the complete set of data.
In past elections, these files have all been posted the day after each election For 2024's election, a week later, THEY ARE STILL MISSING. These files are not based on the official results we are waiting for from the EAC. They are based on exit polling done by AP on the day of the election, and exit polling done by the university on early voters.
So, your analysis is not complete. you have not accessed the votecast election 2024 files, because I have just gone to download them and they only go up to the 2024 primaries for each party. the public votecast files for the 2024 election are still missing, and should have been there by now.
And, the reason votecast files are important, it might give some clues as to what happened in the voting booth. Did people turn away from kamala? did the ones who voted for abortion rights also vote for kamala? was there a surge of white males who voted for Trump? Was there a repeat of the 2016 election in terms of trumps numbers because the same voters showed up? was the a quantitative difference between 2022 and 2024 in terms of any swings? Although votecast is not official, it is the best tool available to understand the incongruencies in the UNOFFICIAL results. If it's not able to explain them, then it's more evidence that the unofficial results were manipulated.
By doing this, we can better anticipate the need of whether to audit the EAC official results.
BTW from a professional EDP perspective, all computer systems that produce numbers have to be audited right to how the final output has been reported. It's part of the job.
Do you follow the Public Leadership Institute? They put out a blog and this week's entry (A Short To-Do List for Progressives) was particularly clarifying...really worth reading the whole piece:
"Trump and right-wing Republicans won primarily because the U.S. was subjected to the same strategy that has been successful in promoting extremism around the world and especially in Europe. The key tactics are: (1) dominating communications systems, especially the Internet, in order to distort the target audience’s perception of reality; (2) demonizing and dehumanizing comparatively small or weak minority groups and their allies; and (3) encouraging contempt for democratic institutions, independent media, and the rule of law."
It may be off.subject but here is my concern, Trump has innuendo, first in Arizona at a campaign rally he said you will never have to vote again. Then at the MaGa law maker meeting on 11/13 he said he probably won't be running again unless you say he's ok, we'll figure something out. People say he can't because of the constitution. We'll he could care less about the constitution. And has proven he can get away with anything. He has.all of his MaGa cronies in the Senate and house. You know they are up to something, but what?
Project 2025, for one thing. Voter suppression for another. And the Supreme Court. I suspect he also thinks the military will back him. Chilling. I hope I'm wrong.
The elephant in the room. A woman. A Black woman.
What voter will tell pollsters that's why HE didn't vote for HER???? It's so much easier - and believable - to say it was the economy. I'll bet a lot of those young men and young Latino men don't do much in the way of grocery shopping anyway.
Women innately know this is why Harris didn't win.
Agreed. There are other contributing factors, but misogyny/racism is almost certainly the biggest.
there is also Harris being a part of the Biden administration. I spoke to several young people who said they and their friends would not vote for Trump, but also could not vote for Harris because of Biden’s stance on the situation in Israel, and they couldn’t determine her stance on that issue.
And, then, how many Palestinians are voters in the US and felt much the same way?
I think you're right, but the biggest part of the problem was failing to communicate the pressure that Biden and other leaders were putting on Netanyahu, who is the source of the problem. Netanyahu would not listen, would not budge. Biden could have and should have reduced and modified U.S. military support to Israel, but he could not be seen as abandoning Israel.
I'm 70 and I thought about not voting for Harris for that reason but Trump was worse in that point, as we have already seen
You are clearly not hungry right now, and you know how you have a roof for your kids. The majority do not feel that way.
Yes. Yes. And yes.
"Economy" is socially acceptable.
Racist/sexist bigotry isn't (yet).
The male T vote - young, Latino - buys into the Macho Nacho Man. It affirms their superiority needs.
We women know this drill, baby! Turns out Kamala was torpedoed by "friendly Dem fire." They couldn't vote for the criminal, and they wouldn't vote for a woman, esp. a Black woman.
So by staying home they voted for the criminal. Remember, not doing something is actively doing something. We all are paying that selfish price.
And also what about voter suppression?
We all know that voter suppression, either directly by preventing citizens from registering or indirectly by simply making it harder and harder for minorities to vote, has gotten steadily worse since the SCOTUS eviscerated the Voting Rights Act in ?2006. Qasim Rashid has addressed this issue in his Substack column
And disinformation
We need data on that. It must be discoverable.
Absolutely. If the VP had been a straight white man when Biden dropped out who seriously thinks the race would have ended the way it did? It breaks my heart to believe it, but no amount of “it’s the economy” will convince me otherwise.
You win the comments!!
Exactly! I’ve read only one male commentator even broach the subject of a Black woman. Plus, what about the non voters who protested because of Gaza? Mike Huckabee? Really!? He’s gonna make it better for Palestinians?
There will likely be no Palestinians 3 years from now.
The TPT ex governor has already declared his colors. What ever the future of felon of Israel, wants the felon of the United States will give him. When did we turn into an aider and abettor of the latest form of genocide?
When? While Biden was in power. I hope the Dems learrn that lesson by 2026.
Agreed, while this is a well-written piece, how can anyone look at these numbers and not see that race and gender played a role? I think writers avoid that subject because 1.) hardly anyone seems to ask about it in polls 2.) even if they do, people will lie or be in denial about their own feelings and 3.) no one knows how to fix it.
There are many females that didn't vote for her also, for the same reasons. Unfortunately, there are many females that are just as misogynistic and/or bigoted as their male counterparts.
They feel threatened by feminism or by any strong, accomplished, independent woman. Too many of them depend on men, whether it's financially, emotionally, or security of any type. And, as you noted, too many of them are racist as well.
and just as many Black men who won't support a Black woman.
Americans voted the way monkeys do. From a recent article in New Scientist:
ad spelling.
Monkeys in politics
At the time of writing, the US presidential election is imminent and Feedback is trapped in an endless cycle of news stories reporting polls, pundits endlessly reinterpreting said polls, and then more polls. It is a terribly long-winded way of saying “we don’t know what’s going to happen”.
Now, our colleague Alexandra Thompson has highlighted an important new contribution to the field of psephological forecasting: a paper titled “Monkeys predict US elections“.
Sadly, this doesn’t involve placing an infinite number of monkeys into voting booths. Instead, researchers showed monkeys pairs of photos of candidates from senatorial and gubernatorial elections.
The monkeys spent more time looking at the losers than at the winners. This seems like a peculiar form of torture for politicians: not only did you lose, it says, but monkeys stared at you judgmentally.
The study extended previous work showing that children can identify the winners and losers in elections based purely on photos of the candidates. Both the children and the monkeys were picking based on face shape, with square jawlines being the key sign of an improved chance of victory.
Who would do such a study? Three of the researchers are at the University of Pennsylvania, but the fourth is based at a Portuguese institution called the Champalimaud Center for the Unknown. Feedback isn’t quite sure what to make of that.
It does seem that unconscious factors play into our voting decisions. It is often claimed that taller candidates tend to win US elections, and there appears to be some truth to this.
A 2013 study pulled data on all US presidential elections to date and found that taller candidates won more of the popular vote – although this didn’t translate to them being more likely to actually be elected. In what can only be described as double nominative determinism, one of the authors is a social psychologist called Abraham Buunk.
Readers who are invested in the outcome of the US election are hereby advised: whatever you do, don’t look up Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s respective heights.
There was big movement of women towards Trump as well. But I agree, a black woman (who didn't do well in the 2020 primaries) was too much for America. I saw several black men interviewed in the days before the election saying that a woman wouldn't be "strong enough". Misogyny runs strongly through American cultures, and especially in African American culture. An hypermachoism is a selling point for too many Americans.
Yes- and why are so few writers talking about this- misogyny and racism?? ! Isn’t that another explanation for why in many states people voted to protect abortion and at the same time voted for HIM??
I don't disagree, but given the tremendous capacity on the right to influence through intimidation and peer pressure, especially among white and Latino men, I think we should also consider the possibility of a subtle, or not so subtle, acceptance of obeying in advance. If I have qualms about voting for the candidate favored by the cohort I most identify with, I have to consider what the consequences would be if I choose not to go along with the crowd. In a contest like this that is ultimately about power--who will have it going forward, who won't--it is difficult to disentangle obeying in advance from hedging your bets. Also, if you have access to the New Yorker, there is a really eye opening article by Jill Lepore in the 11/11 issue titled The Artificial State, about the influence of AI in our elections. It's been going on longer than you probably think. If you can't access it, try going through your local library. I think everyone should read it, especially the majority of New Yorker subscribers who hardly read it.
Respectfully, not everything is mostly race. Especially if you can’t pay your mortgage and buy food for your kids. I keep trying to help you Democrats by voting for your candidates. Now please don’t mistakenly make it all about race or it will cost again in ‘26. And please do away with making Karen a racial white slur (the #1 name most frequently occurring name in a block of important swing voters). Perhaps that was a Steve Bannon plant - ya’ think?
Can we PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE stop posting his picture. It turns my stomach.
Same. Especially on TV (including MSNBC) where they often unnecessarily show his ugly face regardless of what topic is under discussion. PLEASE REDUCE the amount of ugly time!!!
that's Comcast's way of trolling us.
Well, maybe it has been decided to let us all see the progression of the different shades of orange.
Same. I can't stand to look at him or listen to him.
I completely agree that showing Trumps picture and even writing his name is continuing the cigarette addiction mentality of this vile, unworthy and toxic
person.
That’s why I’ve been using Cheetolini for so many years. . . .
I like that --also Trumplethinskin -but when I comment I just use the word that comes immediately: Dumpster..
i so totally agree.. don't want to share this info since his picture is the first thing you see! ugh.. such an ugly face.
During the campaign, most TV stations used Trump's photo from 2016. This is an 8 yr old photo, and in no way depicts the way he looks in reality today.
Agree, but at least Jay used a recent picture. I hate when anyone uses an older picture of him, where he looks younger, healthier, and slightly less orange and deranged. They need to stop pretending he still looks like he did in 2016.
I stopped watching the news long ago, I read the news and commentary. I feel much better when I don’t see or hear Trump. He literally makes me sick.
Agreed...we give the convicted felon and all his MAGA enablers SO much free promotion, added oxygen, and rent-free space in our heads.
We don't realize that the more we mention them, EVEN to refute/disparage, etc. the more we enable what's called the 'illusory truth effect' and per cognitive science, and worse, when we negate something, we actually do the opposite and further reinforce it!
Sources:
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/illusory-truth-effect
and
https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2017/jul/20/the-power-of-framing-its-not-what-you-say-its-how-you-say-it
It's going to be a long 4 years.
As one other commenter pointed out, no one in an exit poll would admit that they simply will not vote for a woman president. The misogyny in this country is much worse than anyone admits. We women know the truth. It was less about race (we’ve seen that a black male can be elected) but rather about gender. No one is going to convince me otherwise.
In my previous congressional district, MAGA Mike Garcia narrowly beat a (Democratic) woman twice. This time he ran against a man and guess what: he lost. I seriously think misogyny is at work here.
I agree, and am SO glad Garcia lost. 👍
Me too!
In Iowa, Republican women seem to do well- governor, senator, two seats in congress. However, Democratic women have never made it past local or state elections.
Why do you think women automatically make better candidates than men? I take it that in 4 years time if the presidential race was Tulsi Gabbard v Gavin Newsome you will be voting for Tulsi. By your own logic if you don't then you're a misogynist.
I don't. But in this case that was definitely true.
I think they would have voted for Biden.
I love Biden, but he was was done. No one talks about that either, he” should have” dropped out way earlier. Kinda like RBG. KH was so tied to Biden and his policies though she tried to create space.
If he had dropped out earlier then there would have been time to hold a primary. Instead the Democratic puppet masters opted for a coup.
MAGA talking point
Create space. (Drat my tablet is acting up)
Allegedly. Fidel Castro (remember him?) once said, "The United States will elect an black man before they will elect a woman." I'd like to emend that to a "base born felonious idiot before...."
Wow! Such an insight from a tyrannical and murderous dictator.
who came to power and held on to it his whole life. Obviously he knew the playbook.
I absolutely agree with you!
Sorry, I do not buy his “economic policies” swung Latino and young men to Trump. WHAT POLICIES????? It was his gross, fake, vulgar “machismo,” and that of all his surrogates. It is pure fake man, put down the little woman, garbage. Plus they got a bonus gift of voting against a black woman, too. I do not buy the economy, at least for that cohort. Trump could not string two coherent sentences together about the economy or anything else. What was he selling to them about the economy? I hope every single one of those male Trump voters get economically skewered these next few years.
I agree with you! These people wouldn't know a policy if it fell on their head. It's misogyny.
And racism.
The only policy Trump had to bring up at a rally was "were you better off under me?" At once, people had this imagined memory picture that busily deleted all the really bad stuff (COVID, family and friends dying, freezer trucks as makeshift morgues...lockdown) and the excited people around you are also busily re-enforcing all the good stuff under Trump until a person without a trained memory can be convinced that things were not only better under Trump, but far better than they actually were. Human memory, when it is properly trained and used, is an incredibly useful tool. But memory is also very selective and completely nonreliable in that it will "remember" what it wants to and much of that depends of the kind of memory, the circumstances and a host of other factors.
I agree as well. This is anecdotal, but I believe it's true. Many Latinos who immigrated legally resent those who came illegally and are competing for their jobs - particularly in construction. The legal immigrants want those who are undocumented to go away, but don't realize trump's plan on deportation may force them or their family members to leave also. I believe they were duped into voting for trump and will come to regret it if/when deportations are carried out.
And we've all heard about the myriad of Google searches on tariffs. Low info voters across the board believed trump's claim that the exporting countries paid the tariffs, and they are in for a very rude awakening when the cost of imported goods goes up, not down.
Actually, they may be deported also, since the monster who will be in charge announced it was much easier to just deport the entire family unit then he won't get the outrage the last time he tried this. Nothing like putting a baby separator in charge.....again.
"Actually" they won't, Trump and his administration value legal immigration. The fact is, it will be impossible to deport all illegal immigrants. They will concentrate on the criminals, human and drug traffickers, rapists etc that the outgoing administration failed to deal with.
You want that bridge gift wrapped or do we just need to see the flag of the Third Reich flown?
Two words sweetheart: Godwin's Law.
Don't sweetheart me, jerk. Nice to know that jerks just mansplain because they feel, in the present MAGA aka 21st c. Fascism, they can. The stench of your comment will do you well with the new admin. Which post are you applying for?
Thanks for reiterating my point.
Thank you for giving us the stats and analyzing them for us.
I look forward to your piece on right wing disinformation and how we cope with it going forward. It is creating voting blocs in this country that have not existed in any large numbers prior to now.
One of those blocs I call the "InCel Males." As more and more men (particularly young men) feel that it is their right to behave in socially unacceptable ways, more and more men of that stripe experience rejection by the women whom they desire. Any young male mammal in mating season is willing to fight to the death for the chance to mate. What we are seeing is FRUSTRATION, and the Freudian component of this election cannot be ignored.
An aspect to the last few presidential elections that frustrates ME is that the Republicans have become experts at taking credit for the previous Democratic administration having repaired the economy and gotten it ticking again, while blaming an incoming Democratic administration for the results of their own malfeasance while in office. I would hate to imagine that Republicans adopt it as a permanent strategy to drill a hole in the boat just before leaving office and then blaming Democrats for the leak.
Exactly right about the economy. Our economy is right now the best in the world, and in two months Trump will jump in front of the existing parade and falsely claim credit for leading it.
INCEL'S - Clearly something you have experience of.
Actually, no. I do have experience with trolls however.
I'd also like to include misogyny and racism as part of the equation. Young men seem to be more inclined to engage in misogyny, especially as young women lean more left, apply for colleges and graduate in numbers larger than men do, are marrying later, don't want to be with MAGA-type men, are putting off having children or deciding not to have children, are making headways up the ladder in their careers, are leaving religious organizations where men dominate and believe women are second class, and in general, are not wanting to be dominated and controlled by men. In general, women outlive men and most divorced women do not remarry. When Trump won, social media exploded with these same men talking about looking forward to controlling women. Too many men are totally messed up when it comes to anything involving sex, such as sexual identity and gender. Men commit most of the crimes of rape, pedophilia, sexual assault, sexual harassment, sexual discrimination, and on and on and on. Too many other men look the other way, ignore it and refuse to confront it. Anti-abortion laws are another way to control women using religion as a shield. Both misogyny and racism are systemic in US institutions and culture and change is slow. Young, white, religious men lean into racism because they lean into the masculine view of white, male superiority. It's an ugly truth that's never really been confronted because white men run every large institution. We also have done nothing to confront Trump's identity politics. White, Christian, straight males are seen as "normal" and the natural way of the world instead of also being a form of identity politics. It's a toxic combination but it can be marginalized.
A t-i-ii-i-iny hopeful sign coming from the moderate Republicans is the vote against Rick Scott as the Senate majority leader. So.... that's something. It's not that John Thune is that much of a gift - but at least he appears to be marginally more sane than Scott.
Something I find curious as Trump begins to announce his cabinet picks is how shocked Republicans are acting. Why? What did they expect? That he will surround himself by intelligent, competent people? Why are they so surprised? And if they block his appointments, there is no doubt in my mind that he'll just do his usual thing - bully them into approving them, no matter how ridiculous.
Oh, Maria. You're so logical. (I have the same problem.)
It's a terrible drag, isn't it? The whole logical, responsible, adult way of thinking is... very out of fashion just now.
Unfortunately.
Thanks Jay, I think a bit of the problem for overall turnout that I haven’t seen anyone mention is the feeling of many voters that they didn’t really count. If you don’t live in a swing state then you’re a second class citizen. I of course know what drives this and as long as we are bound by the electoral college system it won’t change but 6 million democratic voters were told for the past 12 months by the MSM that they (swing state voters) were the only thing that mattered.
And don’t even talk about being on the Left Coast. Sometimes it feels like the national elections are called before the polls are even closed in California and Oregon and Washington. I can’t even imagine how Hawai’i voters feel.
They haven't even counted California's votes yet, and noone seems to care!
So, the voters who wanted ‘a better economy’ (even though they already had one) voted in a guy who will make their economy worse, again. Make it make sense!
It can't and it won't ever make sense 😳
Unfortunately I think one important aspect you are missing is how “terrified“ some people are of transgender humans. They are terrified of their children and grandchildren even knowing these folks exist, much less being “exposed to them“. I know firsthand from some who have voted for this reason. And you see it in the recent focus group results published by the New York Times re 20-somethings. This is horrific. People need to be educated about gender science and sexuality spectrums and how harmless this minority of people are and how important it is to their quality of life to be able to live as their true selves..
So the 10 million vote difference between Trump and Harris is not holding up as votes continue to be tallied, and the presumption of significantly less voter turnout is also not holding up too well. You are right to point out that the early predictions based on initial statistical assessments may prove to be off by quite a bit, but the unfortunate end result doesn’t change. So in the end, there is work to be done to regain some lost ground here, assuming we still have some semblance of a democracy to work with after Trump implements his slash and burn agenda.
I haven't read anything, anywhere about the effects monopolies have had on the price of food and everyday supplies. That right there is what drive prices up and it's what folks have been complaining about: EGGS! GAS! WHATEVER MY THING IS! It all costs more because the giant corporations are not being stopped from raising prices. BREAK UP THE MONOPOLIES!!!!! For crying out loud. And talk about that more!
Robert Reich talks about this all the time. I highly recommend his Substack. 😀
look, votecast is not primarily an AP project. NORC-Votecast is a project of the university of Chicago. It releases public data files for the votecast results. They are archived into a single zip file. when you unzip it, you will find spreadsheets, XML files, and pdf files explaining the results, counts, and the survey questions. Quoting an AP article that talks about some votecast numbers IS NOT ACCESSING VOTECAST. You have to go to the university and download the votecast file for "election 2024" to see the complete set of data.
In past elections, these files have all been posted the day after each election For 2024's election, a week later, THEY ARE STILL MISSING. These files are not based on the official results we are waiting for from the EAC. They are based on exit polling done by AP on the day of the election, and exit polling done by the university on early voters.
So, your analysis is not complete. you have not accessed the votecast election 2024 files, because I have just gone to download them and they only go up to the 2024 primaries for each party. the public votecast files for the 2024 election are still missing, and should have been there by now.
And, the reason votecast files are important, it might give some clues as to what happened in the voting booth. Did people turn away from kamala? did the ones who voted for abortion rights also vote for kamala? was there a surge of white males who voted for Trump? Was there a repeat of the 2016 election in terms of trumps numbers because the same voters showed up? was the a quantitative difference between 2022 and 2024 in terms of any swings? Although votecast is not official, it is the best tool available to understand the incongruencies in the UNOFFICIAL results. If it's not able to explain them, then it's more evidence that the unofficial results were manipulated.
By doing this, we can better anticipate the need of whether to audit the EAC official results.
BTW from a professional EDP perspective, all computer systems that produce numbers have to be audited right to how the final output has been reported. It's part of the job.
For the plebs among us, you can follow the vote count live here: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/president-results or https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/?office=P (We had a small family party when the different went below 3 million. It is the California votes pouring in!)
👏👏👏
You don't take into account him holding the Senate and House. There will be no next election.
Do you follow the Public Leadership Institute? They put out a blog and this week's entry (A Short To-Do List for Progressives) was particularly clarifying...really worth reading the whole piece:
"Trump and right-wing Republicans won primarily because the U.S. was subjected to the same strategy that has been successful in promoting extremism around the world and especially in Europe. The key tactics are: (1) dominating communications systems, especially the Internet, in order to distort the target audience’s perception of reality; (2) demonizing and dehumanizing comparatively small or weak minority groups and their allies; and (3) encouraging contempt for democratic institutions, independent media, and the rule of law."
https://publicleadershipinstitute.org/idealog/?link_id=4&can_id=e6ebfaada1a0acc1c7c80094d8acf23c&source=email-fascism-rescue-funds-voter-protection-and-more&email_referrer=email_2529709&email_subject=protecting-immigrants-abortion-rights-the-future-and-more
It may be off.subject but here is my concern, Trump has innuendo, first in Arizona at a campaign rally he said you will never have to vote again. Then at the MaGa law maker meeting on 11/13 he said he probably won't be running again unless you say he's ok, we'll figure something out. People say he can't because of the constitution. We'll he could care less about the constitution. And has proven he can get away with anything. He has.all of his MaGa cronies in the Senate and house. You know they are up to something, but what?
Project 2025, for one thing. Voter suppression for another. And the Supreme Court. I suspect he also thinks the military will back him. Chilling. I hope I'm wrong.