Joe Biden Is Betting He Can Flip North Carolina Blue

Can demographic shifts and MAGA extremism help deliver Joe Biden a victory in North Carolina this year?

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the Chavis community center with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Photo by Eros Hoagland/Getty Images.

In 2020, Donald Trump won North Carolina by just 1.3%, his smallest margin of victory in any state. And while polls don’t currently show Joe Biden leading in the state, there are reasons to think North Carolina will be ground zero in the fight against GOP extremism. And that could mean a Joe Biden victory in November.

For one thing, MAGA is on the ballot in North Carolina this fall in the form of Mark Robinson, the GOP’s Trump-backed radical gubernatorial standard-bearer. But North Carolina is not a MAGA state. Rather, it is close to a 50-50 split, as election after election demonstrates. Yet the GOP there still nominated an anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-semitic Holocaust denier as its candidate.

North Carolina is also home to a new 12-week abortion ban, which sparked anger after every Republican voted to override Democratic Governor Roy Cooper’s veto of the bill last year. Both the ban’s passage and its veto override passed on razor thin, party line votes, enabled by the outrageous defection of state Rep. Tricia Cotham from the Democratic Party to the Republicans.

Then there’s the radical GOP partisan gerrymander, a one-two punch from the newly constituted Republican majority on the North Carolina state Supreme Court. The conservative state justices paved the way for the Republican-led legislature to redraw congressional district lines into an extreme partisan gerrymander, which is expected to take North Carolina’s breakdown of congressional seats from 7R-7D in 2022 to 10R-4D in 2024, this in a state where 50% of 2020’s congressional votes went to Democrats and 49.4% went to Republicans. 

But the state is getting bluer. Not only did North Carolina gain a congressional seat (and with it an Electoral College vote) after the 2020 census, but demographic data is showing an increasing Democratic presence in the state, particularly in suburban areas in and around Raleigh and Charlotte.

So, can Democrats exploit the GOP’s extremist overreach and favorable demographic shifts to turn this decidedly purple state to a light shade of blue, just as Biden did in Georgia four years ago? I’ll explore this question and dig into the importance North Carolina just might play in 2024 for Joe Biden’s path to victory.

North Carolina Is Only Getting Bluer

As a result of the 2020 Census, six states gained seats in Congress due to population growth: Texas gained two while Colorado, Florida, Montana, Oregon, and North Carolina each gained one.

According to Carolina Demography from UNC Chapel Hill, North Carolina’s population grew around 9.8% between 2010 and 2020—well ahead of the national rate of growth of 7.4%—and per The Guardian, a full two-thirds of that growth in North Carolina was non-white. Just since 2020, the state’s population has continued to surge, with 400,000 people moving into the state, dwarfing Donald Trump’s 2020 margin of victory of 75,000.

Likewise, voter registration has increased the most during the same period in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, which are the most populous in the state and home to Raleigh and Charlotte, the state’s top Democratic strongholds.

As The Guardian describes it:

North Carolina’s political map is a pointillist portrait of post-pandemic population change, with cities such as Charlotte, Durham and Wilmington booming from domestic migration while other communities bleed residents to places with economic vibrancy.

It’s no accident that these are also the counties where Trump struggled the most in his primary against Nikki Haley this past March. 

As Business Insider noted in its Super Tuesday coverage:

In Mecklenburg County, which contains Charlotte and many of its most populous suburbs, Trump only won by 7 points (52%-45%).

The pattern repeated itself in Wake County, which is anchored by the state capital of Raleigh and its suburbs. While Trump won Wake by 20 points (58%-38%), it was well below his roughly 51-point edge over Haley statewide.

And the Biden campaign has taken notice, counting North Carolina among its top swing state targets in 2024. Not only has Team Biden opened ten field offices in the state already (compared to zero for Trump), but President Biden and VP Harris have visited the state multiple times, including a recent (and rare) joint appearance in Raleigh at the end of March.

David Berrios, the Biden campaign’s NC campaign manager, put it this way:

“North Carolina is in play in 2024, and we are laser focused on highlighting the contrast between President Biden’s record of lowering costs and creating jobs and Trump’s work to restrict our freedoms and take away our health care. That’s why we are investing early and bringing on top operatives to secure a win for President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Democrats up and down the ballot in November.”

To implement this strategy, the campaign has already begun buying TV ad time in the state and intends to have 40 full-time staffers on the ground by the end of May, as well as an eleventh field office opened. 

The Biden camp feels it has a real opportunity to expand its path to 270 Electoral Votes in a state where unemployment has come down on his watch, where Medicaid has finally been expanded under Obamacare as of last year, and where Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill has helped replace lead pipes and improve water quality in vulnerable communities.

And that’s on top of the 250,000 voters who cast ballots for Nikki Haley in the Republican primary on Super Tuesday.

How MAGA Can Help Bring North Carolina Home For Biden

One hallmark of the Trump era is the elevation of extremist Republican candidates backed by Trump who ultimately lose otherwise winnable races. And in North Carolina this year, Democrats see an opportunity with GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson.

Per The Washington Post:

Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Democratic governor and a member of the Biden campaign’s national advisory board, said in an interview that Biden is poised to benefit from down-ballot races, where he said Republicans have nominated candidates who are “at a level of extremism that is unprecedented.”

Leading up to the March primary, Robinson, the state’s Republican Lieutenant Governor, was well ahead of his rivals and got a last-minute boost from Trump, who called him "Martin Luther King on steroids."

But Robinson is no social justice advocate. To the contrary, his views are radical and well-documented. Earlier this year, for instance, Robinson was recorded endorsing a 6-week abortion ban as a path to a total ban in the state. But this is hardly an isolated instance.

Per CBS News, here are just a few of the things Robinson has said over the years:

• At a church service last year, Robinson said he feels "sick" when he sees a church flying a rainbow pride flag, which he called "a direct spit in the face of God almighty." He's said that there's no reason that children should be taught about "transgenderism, homosexuality — any of that filth." He also said that "if there's a movement in this country that is demonic and that is full of the spirit of antichrist, it is the transgender movement."

• The lieutenant governor has suggested that feminism was created by the devil and equated it to racism. He's also said "it's not your body anymore," fiercely opposing women seeking abortion.

• He's called climate change research "junk science." And he's openly backed conspiracy theories, saying in a Facebook post in 2017 that he's "seriously skeptical" of John F. Kennedy's assassination and the 9/11 terrorist attacks, suggesting that he distrusted accounts of the events because they were "on television."

• He's also quoted Hitler, without context.

• Robinson has also made disparaging remarks about the Civil Rights movement, claiming that "so many freedoms were lost."

Most polls of the race show North Carolina’s Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leading Robinson in the race for Governor, and Stein has made clear that he intends to highlight Robinson’s extremist views between now and November.

But Democrats are banking that Stein won’t be alone in benefitting from Robinson’s MAGA extremism. As even longtime North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shumaker acknowledges:

“Democrats are in a much more difficult box than Trump is in North Carolina, with one exception: Mark Robinson poses a greater threat to Donald Trump’s presidency than any legal challenge the president is facing.”

This phenomenon of “reverse-coattails”, where voter enthusiasm and turnout down-ballot benefit the presidential candidate at the top of the ticket is contrary to normal political dynamics, but is widely seen as in play in 2024, particularly in states like North Carolina and Arizona where MAGA extremists are on the Republican ballot with Trump.

As Politico reports:

While reverse coattails may be historically rare, there are data points to suggest the outcome can happen. In 2022, Democrats performed best in states where two MAGA-styled candidates shared the ticket, most notably in Pennsylvania and Arizona. And in a slate of public polling in battleground states, statewide Democratic incumbents are currently outrunning Biden, from Nevada to Wisconsin to Michigan.

But what about in a presidential year? 

According to Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock:

“It goes against everything we know about politics, but yes, there are statewide coattails this year. There’s plenty of data showing Democrats, especially where there’s a Democratic incumbent, are winning in places Biden is not doing as well.”

Particularly, Politico notes, where there are

…candidates whose vulnerabilities complement and amplify Trump’s own — turning out Democrats and helping Biden crystallize his argument about the dangers of “MAGA Republicans.”

Take a look at this WRAL poll of North Carolina voters from March for a glimpse at the potential Team Biden sees in the state this year. Whereas Trump leads Biden among unaffiliated voters by 8 points, Josh Stein leads Robinson among the same group by 16 points. The bet Team Biden is making is that not only will enthusiasm for Stein to defeat Robinson drive more Biden voters out to the polls, but lukewarm Biden voters will be inspired to cast their vote for him as well.

What Is Joe Biden’s Electoral College Path?

The Biden Campaign is eager to expand the Electoral Map in 2024 because the dynamics that led to his 2020 path to victory are simply not replicable this year, particularly in Georgia where Biden benefitted from two majority-making U.S. Senate races held concurrently with his own election. So, while a win in Georgia may be difficult to repeat, Politico reports that the campaign sees North Carolina’s 16 Electoral votes as “a more fruitful target in 2024” than Georgia’s same number of EVs.

Population shifts nationally have favored red states, which means the Electoral College shifted slightly toward Trump as a result of the 2020 U.S. Census. For example, while Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College in 2020, per 270toWin, the same 2020 map would only represent a 303-235 victory for Biden in 2024.

If we took Georgia off the list of Biden states in 2024, as well as his next closest state, Arizona, Biden would still win the presidency, but with very little room for error.

In this scenario, Biden’s blue wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan would have to hold. 

But add North Carolina to Biden’s column, and there is suddenly much more breathing room on the path to 270 EVs, even without Georgia and even Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral Votes.

With Arizona and North Carolina both blue, Biden would even be able to lose Pennsylvania AND Wisconsin, and still win the presidency. 

Ever since 2008, when Barack Obama won North Carolina by less than half a point, the state has been elusive for Democrats. But in 2024, with the Biden Campaign now moving significant resources there, it’s clear that North Carolina just might serve as the magic bullet Biden needs when it comes to the 2024 Electoral Map. It’s a contest we’ll all be watching very closely on Election Night.