Can Democrats Hold On To The Senate In 2024?
While the 2024 Senate map favors Republicans, if chips fall in favor of Democrats, there is a path for them to hold onto the Senate.
Looking ahead to 2024, while the presidency is the big election night prize, the fight for control of Congress is crucial to determining what can get done in the subsequent 4 years.
One need only look at the U.S. House under Republican majority rule as Exhibit A in the difference the party in power can make.
On the bright side, most observers agree that in 2024, Democrats are likely to take back House control, ushering in Speaker Hakeem Jeffries in January 2025. From the chaos of this Congressional term, to redistricting battles, to a more favorable electoral environment, all signs point to Democrats winning enough seats to overtake the GOP’s slim majority in the House.
In the Senate, on the other hand, where Democrats hold a 2-seat majority, things do not look quite so bright.
Every two years, approximately one-third of the Senate’s 100 members are up for election. Next year, 33 seats are up with a 34th seat up in a special election, and the map is NOT pretty for Democrats.
Credit: Ballotpedia
Of those Senate seats up in 2024, just 10 (plus one special election) are held by Republicans, while 23 are Democrats or Independents who caucus with the Democrats. And among those 11 Republican-held seats, none of them represents a state won by Joe Biden.
Democrats, however, are having to defend three seats in states that were won by Trump (West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio) as well as several seats in the most tightly contested swing states including Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.
So, in this tough environment, can Democrats hold onto the Senate for another 2 years? I’ll explore the current Senate battleground and what it will take for Democrats to maintain a slim majority in 2025.
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Senate Control Rests With Red-State Democrats
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority. Assuming Dems maintain control of the White House, Republicans will need a net gain of 2 seats on November 5, 2024 to win back a majority outright.
If Republicans win back the White House though, that majority threshold number reduces to just 1 seat, since a 50-50 tie goes to the Vice President to break.
The key to Democrats’ holding onto the Senate majority most likely hinges on the fates of three red-state Democrats: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
Joe Manchin (D-WV)
With Machin’s recent announcement that he will not seek another term, it is widely assumed that that seat will flip to Republicans, with popular Republican Governor Jim Justice running for the seat against an as-yet-determined Democrat.
West Virginia has become more and more conservative in recent years, and Manchin’s hold on that seat was widely seen as increasingly tenuous, particularly after his central role in passing several pieces of President Biden’s legislative agenda.
2025 looks to be the year where both West Virginia Senate seats are held by Republicans, something that hasn’t happened since the 1950s.
This means Democrats essentially go into 2024 tied up at 50-50 with no room for error: They must win the presidency AND end up with a net loss of zero seats to maintain control of the chamber. And while a post-Roe presidential electorate should put the wind at Democrats’ backs, the map presents a distinctly uphill climb.
As CNN has laid out, the top 8 U.S. Senate seats most likely to flip are all held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with them. After West Virginia, the next two most likely to flip are Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio, two incumbent Democrats running for reelection in states won by Trump.
Jon Tester (D-MT)
In 2006, Tester rode a blue wave to victory, winning his Montana U.S. Senate race by just 1%. Now running for his fourth term, Tester has never won his seat by more than 4%, and he is hoping to eke out a win once more, with Democratic Senate control likely in the balance.
In a state Donald Trump won by 20% in 2016 and 16% in 2020, where Tester is the only Democratic statewide elected official left, it’s no wonder that this race is ranked the next most likely to flip in 2024.
Tester’s opponent is retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who has secured the support of top Republicans in the state…except for Congressman Matt Rosendale, who has threatened to run against Sheehy for the Senate nomination. If national Republicans can keep Rosendale–who lost to Tester in 2018–out of the race and avoid a costly primary, conventional wisdom is that Sheehy has a good chance against Tester in such a solidly red state, particularly if Trump is on the ballot.
If Tester is to prevail next year, a recent Emerson College poll, which has Tester polling ahead of Sheehy 39%-35%, provides the blueprint for Tester’s path to victory. While Biden has very high disapproval in the state, Tester is able to draw enough crossover support to run significantly ahead of Biden.
According to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling:
“Twelve percent of Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote Tester for Senate. This is driven by Tester’s support among independents and women voters. Among independents, Tester outperforms Biden by 11 points, with 38% compared to Biden’s 27%. Among women, Tester outperforms Biden by 15 points, with 46% compared to Biden’s 31%.”
Additionally, Tester could benefit from a proposed ballot initiative sponsored by Planned Parenthood Advocates of Montana that would allow voters to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. The measure faces several hurdles before it can appear before voters next year, but even in deep red Montana, there is reason to think such a measure could help deliver Tester another term.
As Chris Coburn, spokesman for Montana Planned Parenthood, puts it:
“The electorate, time and time again, has voiced support for the right to make personal private medical decisions. There is a pretty glaring disconnect and misalignment between what policies and bills state lawmakers are pursuing and spending their time passing, and what the electorate in Montana wants, expects and deserves.”
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Like Tester, Sherrod Brown was ushered into office in the 2006 blue wave election and has benefitted from being in-cycle for the strong Democratic years 2012 and 2018. But like Montana, Ohio is trending more and more Republican, making Brown’s Senate seat the next most likely to flip control.
Having won his last two elections by around 6%, Brown is slightly more aligned with his red state than Tester is, and he has effectively leveraged an economic populist message to win over an increasingly conservative electorate. And the recent landslide victory of a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution has laid out a clear path for how a pro-choice message can win in Ohio.
Also helping Brown is a 3-way contested Republican primary that could get messy and costly. The most recent surveys show Brown running ahead of all three of his potential Republican contenders, like Tester, benefitting from crossover GOP support.
In an Emerson College poll from earlier this month, while Donald Trump runs ahead of his 2020 margin in the state, besting Biden by 12%, Brown leads all three of his potential Republican opponents by between 3-10%. The key? As Spencer Kimball put it:
“About 1 in 10 2024 Trump voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Brown in the Senate matchup against any of the three leading Republican candidates.”
Additionally, Brown has a huge cash advantage according to his Q3 fundraising report, and is remarkably popular in the state, with a 47% favorability rating (vs. 32% unfavorable.) He has also improved his standing relative to Emerson’s October poll, which indicates that Brown is holding his lead over the Republican candidates among Independent voters while shoring up his Democratic base in the state.
What’s Going On In Arizona?
If there is a race that could throw a wrench into the works, it’s in Arizona where Kyrsten Sinema, who switched to an Independent earlier this year but still caucuses with Democrats, may or may not run for reelection.
While she has not officially announced her candidacy, it’s clear from a prospective campaign document obtained by NBC News that she sees her path as winning over more Republicans than Democrats as well as a majority of Independents.
But one major factor in her delay in announcing a run may be a Noble Predictive Insights poll conducted in late October that finds Sinema with just 29%, losing to both Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego (39%) and Republican election denier Kari Lake (33%.)
Sinema’s decision on whether to run or not will no doubt impact the race, though all polls at this point do find Gallego ahead of his potential opponents.
Could Democrats Actually Pick Up A Seat?
While it’s unlikely in this environment for Democrats to take out an incumbent Republican Senator sitting pretty in a Republican state, CNN does list Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Rick Scott as the 9th and 10th most vulnerable sitting Senators next year.
One point of vulnerability for both of these Republicans: They’ve so far been outraised by their top Democratic opponents. This likely speaks to the outsized Democratic enthusiasm we’ve seen since the overturning of Roe v Wade. But can that translate into enough turnout in these red states to impact the actual election result?
As CNN says of Scott’s Florida seat::
Even with Democratic investment, though, it’s going to take a lot to flip this seat blue. The state’s senior senator, Republican Marco Rubio, won reelection last year over a high-profile Democratic opponent by 16 points.
Both Florida and Texas have proven elusive for Democrats in recent cycles despite polling showing possible statewide wins. For Democrats to take out one of these incumbents, something big would likely need to shift toward a national blue-wave environment.
What Does This Mean For 2024?
In the midst of Republican House chaos, Senate Republicans have settled on a message to Republican supporters that investing in the Senate is the one hope of keeping a check on Democratic power. They’ve already written off the House as a lost cause.
Accordingly, there should be one clear message to Democrats ahead of 2024, even as we do everything we can to re-elect President Biden and Vice President Harris:
the campaigns to re-elect Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown to the Senate are crucial must-win races.
So if you’re able, please help bolster their campaigns by donating whatever you can afford to help re-elect both our presidential ticket as well as these strong red-state Democrats and keep the Senate blue for at least 2 more years.
DONATE TO THE BIDEN/HARRIS CAMPAIGN
DONATE TO JON TESTER FOR SENATE
DONATE TO SHERROD BROWN FOR SENATE
The Senate majority depends on it.
Not having Manchin or Sinema gives hope for finally abolishing or modifying the damnable 60 votes filibuster cudgel, so we can finally pass many popular legislation still hanging over our heads. It is really worth going all in to doing everything we can to maintain and possibly gain seats.
"One need only look at the U.S. House under Republican majority rule as Exhibit A in the difference the party in power can make."
Let's hope American voters recognize that electing their State Senators and their Representatives, (so to speak,) are just as important as President. When these tiny gerrymandered majorities favor the GOP, extremists reign and nothing passes.