The political leanings might not be accurate either.
In the primaries, I voted Republican, to try to oust some of the riff raff from being able to run again
I am receiving a lot of republican mailers, because they think I am republican.
I am not.
When I mail in my ballot in my state, it will be counted as a republican mail in vote.
I have friends that did this also. I am not sure how skewed it makes the statistics, remember a margin of error if some of those states have the same option in their primaries.
Oh, now I get it! I'm an independent who generally votes liberal. In the spring primaries I voted Republican for the same reasons you did. So, 2 weeks ago I got a trump flyer asking for volunteers to get the vote out.
It made me happy for 2 reasons:
1. I've been volunteering for the Democrats to get the vote out since May. This seems like a late start. Yay for us!
2. I signed up to volunteer for all 5 options on the trump flyer, just in case it took a slot from a trumpster. (And I made myself giggle while doing it.) And now I'm getting emails thanking me for the work I didn't do. This seems really disorganized. The groups I work for knows exactly what day and hours we are working and keeps track that all shifts are filled.
Hopefully all these little things will make the difference.
Is there a GOP equivalent to Mobilize? I often get a follow up email asking for feedback on events and in some cases (e.g., when a unique link is created for a Zoom) a link to the recording with a "sorry you missed it" message or a "please share with your friends" depending on whether I had joined the meeting!
We must VOTE early and VOTE Democrat up and down the ballot to STOP the MAGA cult leader from being elected and ensure a Congress where Kamala can implement her opportunity economy and policies that help average Americans.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a FACT.
This election is crucial, I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz victory wearing this funny "Kamala removes stubborn orange stains" shirt on November 5th 👇 🤣
Same here. I was out doing some door knocking for Harris and learned that when they send us to "known" Democrat households they use which ballot you selected in the primary for those of us who are independent. So I don't appear on a Harris list and it explains why I get plenty of asshat propoganda, texts and emails.
A young man I met at a Democratic event was doing Oppo research by showing up at events for GOP state house candidates. He's a clean-cut, white, 20-something and apparenty shows up to those events in khaki's and a button down shirt. I could easiy see him working in Finance in one of Charlotte's big banks. His mom is big into Democratic grassroots activities, so I don't think he is a double agent ;-)
I must confess that I feel some comfort—only a little—by your analysis. Only a little because I want no relaxation until the monster is confirmed dead. I want to see a head on a pole at the castle’s gate.
It is all hands on deck; balls to the walls; no stopping until the fat lady has sung. I never want the feelings I had in my heart and stomach when DJT took the lead in 2016.
Wow! This is a seriously detailed article chock full of info. I salute all who worked on this. Thank you.
Early voting began today (in Indiana) at 0800. I arrived at 0910 and there were 31 people ahead of me. I vote early each election and have never seen this on the first day - and right after opening. Since I am a tiny blue dot who currently lives in a crimson red rural town that would gladly change its name to trumpville I’m not sure if I should feel defeated or hopeful by this turnout.
To preserve my sanity I’m going to go with hopeful until I know the outcome on Election Day.
I think the "enthusiasm" thing is what got us in 2016. I will admit to being a die-hard optimist, always have been even at my old age, but I get the sense two things are happening this time around:
1) Even Trump supporters, though they'd never admit it, are getting tired of his act. Some may skip this round.
2) The shoe is on the other foot this time. It's the Kamala movement this time that is going to flip the polls around. That's where the enthusiasm is.
Thanks for the exhaustive analysis. This must have been a lot of work. I got tired just reading it all. Probably need new reading glasses.
As we said when I lived in Chicago: Vote early, and vote often!!
“The PA Dems Voter Protection and Organizing teams are working hard to make sure that every voter's voice is heard this November and we need your help! Please join us in making calls to voters who need help "curing" their ballots.
Please note, we will provide training on the phone bank for all new volunteers.” 📲
FWIW, Joshua Smithley posted an updated set of numbers from PA while this was being written/edited/embargoed. It's now 217,366 total, with 6.1% Democratic edge in returns (155,931/43,793/17,642).
I'm still getting likes on this, so I'd urge you to keep checking Smithley or UF for daily updates if you want them. Just now: 344,215 total, with a 7.5% Democratic edge.
sigh. Glad to see the enthusiasm is there. But at the risk of mucking up column content for just before the 2028 election, I'd like to point out the virtues of universal vote by mail.
Washington has had county-optional Vote By Mail since 2005, and mandatory state wide since 2011. In that time, the Heritage Foundation data sheet has found 6 (six) instances of fraud related to the mail in system between 2005 and 2010, and none since then. All but one involved a relative voting the ballot of an recently ineligible/dead voter which arrived at their house Needless to say, the foreign born population has pretty much doubled since 2000.
This is despite ballots arriving in your mailbox where those narsty thieves could steal them (but don't), drop boxes abounding, no picture ID needed, and an over 84% turnout, in the 2020 election.
With the proper precautions, universal mail-in voting is safe, without all the hassles of who is entitled to absentee ballots and the hassles of applying for them. And since no ballots are even generated if one is not registered, clearly no massive "furriner's sneaking into the polling places." And the ballots will go out 18 calendar days before the election and EVERYONE registered will have one with no extra effort. Returns are post-paid, though in my case the drop box is considerably closer to my house than the nearest PO or PO box.
Side note... Can we talk about the lack of political lawn signage happening this year? I think dems have always been a bit low key on advertising who they vote for but the absence of Trump lawn signs speaks volumes about both our current political situation and the "limited" enthusiasm for DJT.
I'm intrigued with the "none/Minor" returned ballots by party. My instinct would be to think those are likely Democratic votes since folks who consider themselves independent or uneasy registering for a particular party are less likely to be Trump supporters. Is that just hopeful thinking on my part? or is there any data that might be relevant? (Great article, btw!)
Please keep in mind for Texas that mail in ballots are for cause. You have to be elderly, disabled, etc. That suppresses the numbers and likely skews Texas mail in voting Republican.
How does Helene impact things? It strikes me that less populated, more “country” areas in NC are whacked harder than the democrat dominated cities. Theoretically making it easier for “city” voters to get to the polls.
And unless Harris vociferously changes position on Gaza, the Muslim/Palestinian population in Michigan is going to vote third party. Can she win that swing state without them?
Clearly Trump will be better for Israel and worse for Gazans (and also better for Putin). I told my buddy that either Trump OR Harris is going to be president and he and his friends should pick one. By voting 3rd party they increase the odds Trump may prevail in Michigan.
But he says Harris has not EARNED their vote so they WON'T vote for her.
And Trump HAS earned their vote?...because that is who they are electing with their third party vote.
Geez, I just do not understand why people aways think their votes are valentines, instead of the bus ticket that will simply get them closer to where they want to be.
I think Trump will be a disaster for Israel and Gaza, partly because he can’t help being a disaster no matter what he does or doesn’t do. Israel does not need another warmonger urging on Netanyahu.
I have two very left-wing friends (one in NYC and one in Hoboken) who won’t vote for president this year. They don’t like Kamala (because she’s moderate and because they think she’s not tough enough on Israel) and they hate Trump (they know, also, that NY and NJ will be blue anyway). I’m disgusted by my friends’ decisions. Democrats need every single vote, no matter how confident people are that their blue state will go blue this year.
I must admit, from down here in the antipodes where voting is compulsory, that COMPLETELY blows my mind. It's your duty as a citizen of a democracy to PARTICIPATE in that democracy. I know Australia is very much in the minority with our system, but having grown up with it while watching how the rest of the world works, it spins me out that people DON'T vote.
And I am watching what's going on over there with a close eye - the outcome, whichever it is, will have repercussions for the rest of the world, even allies such as us. Truly wishing you all the best in November - WE don't want to see Trump return either.
What does your friend say would "earn" their vote? Do they think Trump or 3rd party has earned it? And what would someone who has not been president yet have actually accomplished that would earn it? Are they saying Biden hasn't earned the vote for Harris?
Emgage Action's clear-eyed endorsement of Harris-Walz despite their issues with Biden's failures to control Neyanyahu and arming of Israel present the stakes for Muslim Americans pretty eloquently.
Particularly those with families in Gaza who, if they survive at all, face prospect of being handed over to Saudi governance (see Lindsey Graham's plan) while their land gets handed to Trump's son-in-law to build beachfront apartments for Netanyahu's settlers.
And for your friend- has TRUMP earned his vote? And these Muslim populations seem to not care that their brethren in the Middle East have a terrorist run government that has done little to nothing to protect its citizens and and seem to get off on hating Jews and Israelis. How do they expect to get to peace when they mimic the hateful attitudes of extremists on both sides? Has Rashida Tlaib EVER wished for a better government for Palestinians or just death to Israel?
It’s been covered exhaustively that the number of protest votes in Michigan is not going to be of impact. With or without them, it is other factors that will decide Michigan. And it’s likely most of those ppl were never democratic voters anyway, so it’s not like losing votes we usually have. They sure do like getting attention though. Let’s not give it to them!
What may also skew some of the Michigan stats for mail in compared to 2020 or even 2022 is that starting this year we have 9 days of early voting. I know many people, like me, who voted absentee in 2020 but will be early voting this year. I have no idea how the stats are reported for early voting here.
Deborah, you know you track your ballot (and see if and when it was mailed out to you, as well as when your ballot was received once you send it back) here:
The political leanings might not be accurate either.
In the primaries, I voted Republican, to try to oust some of the riff raff from being able to run again
I am receiving a lot of republican mailers, because they think I am republican.
I am not.
When I mail in my ballot in my state, it will be counted as a republican mail in vote.
I have friends that did this also. I am not sure how skewed it makes the statistics, remember a margin of error if some of those states have the same option in their primaries.
Vote 💙
Oh, now I get it! I'm an independent who generally votes liberal. In the spring primaries I voted Republican for the same reasons you did. So, 2 weeks ago I got a trump flyer asking for volunteers to get the vote out.
It made me happy for 2 reasons:
1. I've been volunteering for the Democrats to get the vote out since May. This seems like a late start. Yay for us!
2. I signed up to volunteer for all 5 options on the trump flyer, just in case it took a slot from a trumpster. (And I made myself giggle while doing it.) And now I'm getting emails thanking me for the work I didn't do. This seems really disorganized. The groups I work for knows exactly what day and hours we are working and keeps track that all shifts are filled.
Hopefully all these little things will make the difference.
This is the best!
Ooh, this is juicy intel! Thanks for sharing about this, and for your great sacrifice.
Anything to serve my country ;-)
Is there a GOP equivalent to Mobilize? I often get a follow up email asking for feedback on events and in some cases (e.g., when a unique link is created for a Zoom) a link to the recording with a "sorry you missed it" message or a "please share with your friends" depending on whether I had joined the meeting!
Sorry, I don't know. I haven't had any experience with something like that.
Yeah!
We must VOTE early and VOTE Democrat up and down the ballot to STOP the MAGA cult leader from being elected and ensure a Congress where Kamala can implement her opportunity economy and policies that help average Americans.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a FACT.
This election is crucial, I can't wait to celebrate Harris/Walz victory wearing this funny "Kamala removes stubborn orange stains" shirt on November 5th 👇 🤣
https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/votek
Please validate your voter registration at https://vote.gov and consider voting early. Also, if you are able, please consider volunteering.
Same here. I was out doing some door knocking for Harris and learned that when they send us to "known" Democrat households they use which ballot you selected in the primary for those of us who are independent. So I don't appear on a Harris list and it explains why I get plenty of asshat propoganda, texts and emails.
A young man I met at a Democratic event was doing Oppo research by showing up at events for GOP state house candidates. He's a clean-cut, white, 20-something and apparenty shows up to those events in khaki's and a button down shirt. I could easiy see him working in Finance in one of Charlotte's big banks. His mom is big into Democratic grassroots activities, so I don't think he is a double agent ;-)
I must confess that I feel some comfort—only a little—by your analysis. Only a little because I want no relaxation until the monster is confirmed dead. I want to see a head on a pole at the castle’s gate.
We were pretty confident (and smug about) that tRump would lose in 2016. We cannot be complacent this time.
It is all hands on deck; balls to the walls; no stopping until the fat lady has sung. I never want the feelings I had in my heart and stomach when DJT took the lead in 2016.
Or never complacent, really, that is a perfect philosophy.
Wow! This is a seriously detailed article chock full of info. I salute all who worked on this. Thank you.
Early voting began today (in Indiana) at 0800. I arrived at 0910 and there were 31 people ahead of me. I vote early each election and have never seen this on the first day - and right after opening. Since I am a tiny blue dot who currently lives in a crimson red rural town that would gladly change its name to trumpville I’m not sure if I should feel defeated or hopeful by this turnout.
To preserve my sanity I’m going to go with hopeful until I know the outcome on Election Day.
I think the "enthusiasm" thing is what got us in 2016. I will admit to being a die-hard optimist, always have been even at my old age, but I get the sense two things are happening this time around:
1) Even Trump supporters, though they'd never admit it, are getting tired of his act. Some may skip this round.
2) The shoe is on the other foot this time. It's the Kamala movement this time that is going to flip the polls around. That's where the enthusiasm is.
Thanks for the exhaustive analysis. This must have been a lot of work. I got tired just reading it all. Probably need new reading glasses.
As we said when I lived in Chicago: Vote early, and vote often!!
“The PA Dems Voter Protection and Organizing teams are working hard to make sure that every voter's voice is heard this November and we need your help! Please join us in making calls to voters who need help "curing" their ballots.
Please note, we will provide training on the phone bank for all new volunteers.” 📲
https://www.mobilize.us/2024pavictory/event/676131/
I don’t know how you don’t have a standing spot on CNN’s election desk. Awesome!
FWIW, Joshua Smithley posted an updated set of numbers from PA while this was being written/edited/embargoed. It's now 217,366 total, with 6.1% Democratic edge in returns (155,931/43,793/17,642).
I'm still getting likes on this, so I'd urge you to keep checking Smithley or UF for daily updates if you want them. Just now: 344,215 total, with a 7.5% Democratic edge.
sigh. Glad to see the enthusiasm is there. But at the risk of mucking up column content for just before the 2028 election, I'd like to point out the virtues of universal vote by mail.
Washington has had county-optional Vote By Mail since 2005, and mandatory state wide since 2011. In that time, the Heritage Foundation data sheet has found 6 (six) instances of fraud related to the mail in system between 2005 and 2010, and none since then. All but one involved a relative voting the ballot of an recently ineligible/dead voter which arrived at their house Needless to say, the foreign born population has pretty much doubled since 2000.
This is despite ballots arriving in your mailbox where those narsty thieves could steal them (but don't), drop boxes abounding, no picture ID needed, and an over 84% turnout, in the 2020 election.
With the proper precautions, universal mail-in voting is safe, without all the hassles of who is entitled to absentee ballots and the hassles of applying for them. And since no ballots are even generated if one is not registered, clearly no massive "furriner's sneaking into the polling places." And the ballots will go out 18 calendar days before the election and EVERYONE registered will have one with no extra effort. Returns are post-paid, though in my case the drop box is considerably closer to my house than the nearest PO or PO box.
Someone needs to pay attention.
Side note... Can we talk about the lack of political lawn signage happening this year? I think dems have always been a bit low key on advertising who they vote for but the absence of Trump lawn signs speaks volumes about both our current political situation and the "limited" enthusiasm for DJT.
I'm intrigued with the "none/Minor" returned ballots by party. My instinct would be to think those are likely Democratic votes since folks who consider themselves independent or uneasy registering for a particular party are less likely to be Trump supporters. Is that just hopeful thinking on my part? or is there any data that might be relevant? (Great article, btw!)
not to mention, quite a few of Republican ballots returned may be voting for Kamala...
So.... basically... take nothing for granted. Vote.
Please keep in mind for Texas that mail in ballots are for cause. You have to be elderly, disabled, etc. That suppresses the numbers and likely skews Texas mail in voting Republican.
How does Helene impact things? It strikes me that less populated, more “country” areas in NC are whacked harder than the democrat dominated cities. Theoretically making it easier for “city” voters to get to the polls.
And unless Harris vociferously changes position on Gaza, the Muslim/Palestinian population in Michigan is going to vote third party. Can she win that swing state without them?
Seems like a foolish thing to do unless they want another Muslim ban. But who knows?
Clearly Trump will be better for Israel and worse for Gazans (and also better for Putin). I told my buddy that either Trump OR Harris is going to be president and he and his friends should pick one. By voting 3rd party they increase the odds Trump may prevail in Michigan.
But he says Harris has not EARNED their vote so they WON'T vote for her.
As my 94 year old mother would say, "Cutting off their nose to spite their face."
And Trump HAS earned their vote?...because that is who they are electing with their third party vote.
Geez, I just do not understand why people aways think their votes are valentines, instead of the bus ticket that will simply get them closer to where they want to be.
I think Trump will be a disaster for Israel and Gaza, partly because he can’t help being a disaster no matter what he does or doesn’t do. Israel does not need another warmonger urging on Netanyahu.
I have two very left-wing friends (one in NYC and one in Hoboken) who won’t vote for president this year. They don’t like Kamala (because she’s moderate and because they think she’s not tough enough on Israel) and they hate Trump (they know, also, that NY and NJ will be blue anyway). I’m disgusted by my friends’ decisions. Democrats need every single vote, no matter how confident people are that their blue state will go blue this year.
1000% agreement from me!!! I want to bang my head on the wall in frustration trying to explain this to some friends. ARGH!
I must admit, from down here in the antipodes where voting is compulsory, that COMPLETELY blows my mind. It's your duty as a citizen of a democracy to PARTICIPATE in that democracy. I know Australia is very much in the minority with our system, but having grown up with it while watching how the rest of the world works, it spins me out that people DON'T vote.
And I am watching what's going on over there with a close eye - the outcome, whichever it is, will have repercussions for the rest of the world, even allies such as us. Truly wishing you all the best in November - WE don't want to see Trump return either.
What does your friend say would "earn" their vote? Do they think Trump or 3rd party has earned it? And what would someone who has not been president yet have actually accomplished that would earn it? Are they saying Biden hasn't earned the vote for Harris?
Your friend is simply a narcissist begging for attention. Sorry, not sorry.
Sounds like your buddy needs remedial Civics.
It might be best to convince him to stay home as the ultimate protest vote!
🤯🤷🏽♀️
Emgage Action's clear-eyed endorsement of Harris-Walz despite their issues with Biden's failures to control Neyanyahu and arming of Israel present the stakes for Muslim Americans pretty eloquently.
Particularly those with families in Gaza who, if they survive at all, face prospect of being handed over to Saudi governance (see Lindsey Graham's plan) while their land gets handed to Trump's son-in-law to build beachfront apartments for Netanyahu's settlers.
https://emgageaction.org/emgageendorsement/
And for your friend- has TRUMP earned his vote? And these Muslim populations seem to not care that their brethren in the Middle East have a terrorist run government that has done little to nothing to protect its citizens and and seem to get off on hating Jews and Israelis. How do they expect to get to peace when they mimic the hateful attitudes of extremists on both sides? Has Rashida Tlaib EVER wished for a better government for Palestinians or just death to Israel?
Thank you!
It’s been covered exhaustively that the number of protest votes in Michigan is not going to be of impact. With or without them, it is other factors that will decide Michigan. And it’s likely most of those ppl were never democratic voters anyway, so it’s not like losing votes we usually have. They sure do like getting attention though. Let’s not give it to them!
Clearly Trump will be better for Israel? Maybe for Bibi.
Thank you. I, too, disagree with that opinion.
What may also skew some of the Michigan stats for mail in compared to 2020 or even 2022 is that starting this year we have 9 days of early voting. I know many people, like me, who voted absentee in 2020 but will be early voting this year. I have no idea how the stats are reported for early voting here.
Here in Erie County we haven't even gotten our ballots in the mail. Supposed to be hitting the boxes next week. Try doing an analysis in 2 weeks.
Our mail in ballots here in Arizona start being mailed out tomorrow.
Deborah, you know you track your ballot (and see if and when it was mailed out to you, as well as when your ballot was received once you send it back) here:
https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/BallotTracking.aspx