In my state mail in votes are processed to the point just until scanning into the voting tally. On election night the ballots are scanned and reported on the same date.
I have some anecdotal personal experience to support the early conclusions in this article. On our last regular door knocking for Dems in Wisconsin, the party gave us a choice to get out the vote of known Democrats OR go to a small town in a red county that had shown some signs of turning purple and try to identify Harris voters from those identified as undecided. We chose the latter option.
My husband and I thought it was a good day. We identified 8 voters that the campaign had previously identified as undecided as “definitely” Harris Walz voters. Three of them had already returned their mail in ballots, and the ballots had just arrived by mail. It must have been a same day or day after return.
Here’s hoping that the hunch of positive enthusiasm for Harris/Walz turns into a trend.
And this is exactly why the repubs are trying so hard to stop counting votes by mail - even to the point of doing nothing (in the House they are the majority) to fix issues with the post office that are certain to cause valid ballots not to be counted
Really helpful piece, thank you, Jay. As you say, if postal voting is generally down from 2020 as a proportion of overall votes, that makes it hard to draw conclusions for likely outcome from them but let's encourage every Harris supporter - including young voters to vote as early as possible to protect ourselves from the (literal!) winds of fortune.
One bit I struggled to understand: "Bonier observed that “just over 1 in 3 of the PA GOPs who have already voted by mail cast their ballot on [Election Day] in 2020, as compared to just 1 in 10 of PA Dems. So the GOP is converting voters to mail voting, but that still isn't enough to keep up with [the] Dems.”
Can people who've already voted by mail also vote in person? That sounds like 2 votes! (Forgive stupid question - I really don't get that bit.)
In my state, Illinois, a voter who requested a mail in ballot but changes their mind and wants to vote in person has to surrender their mail in ballot at the polling place. For voters who requested a mail in ballot but “lost it,” they can sign an affidavit and cast a provisional ballot.
Side note... Can we talk about the lack of political lawn signage happening this year? I think dems have always been a bit low key on advertising who they vote for but the absence of Trump lawn signs speaks volumes about both our current political situation and the "limited" enthusiasm for DJT.
In my state a R group sent out absentee applications with an envelope for your county auditor! This is the same party that screamed foul about mail in ballots last time. Grubbers gonna grub.
Hard not to be at least somewhat optimistic about Dem chances in PA, even w/o going all "tea-leaves"...but just turn those numbers around, and what would your take be? I for one would be soooo pessimistic over our chances, and depressed as hell!
So, having seen the early VBM numbers, the Harris campaign should just keep going balls to the wall, as this state is the Big One for the 2024 election, hands-down.
AZ? tRump squeaks in, party reg. since 2020 greatly favors the Rs. NC? Hurricane Helene threw a spanner in the works, not only affecting voters sentiments re: how fast help is arriving to battered communities, but simple logistics of getting ballots to and from voters, apart from in-person voting...so, impossible to figure. GA? Leans tRump, it's all about turnout and Black-voter enthusiasm.
sigh. Glad to see the enthusiasm is there. But at the risk of mucking up column content for just before the 2028 election, I'd like to point out the virtues of universal vote by mail.
Washington has had county-optional Vote By Mail since 2005, and mandatory state wide since 2011. In that time, the Heritage Foundation data sheet has found 6 (six) instances of fraud related to the mail in system between 2005 and 2010, and none since then. All but one involved a relative voting the ballot of an recently ineligible/dead voter which arrived at their house Needless to say, the foreign born population has pretty much doubled since 2000.
This is despite ballots arriving in your mailbox where those narsty thieves could steal them (but don't), drop boxes abounding, no picture ID needed, and an over 84% turnout, in the 2020 election.
With the proper precautions, universal mail-in voting is safe, without all the hassles of who is entitled to absentee ballots and the hassles of applying for them. And since no ballots are even generated if one is not registered, clearly no massive "furriner's sneaking into the polling places." And the ballots will go out 18 calendar days before the election and EVERYONE registered will have one with no extra effort. Returns are post-paid, though in my case the drop box is considerably closer to my house than the nearest PO or PO box.
The polls revealed numerous trends but were unable to predict the final outcome. Early voting offers tantalyzing glimpses of what may be, but the sample is still too small and the crystal ball remains rather murky. I guess we'll just have to be 'Biden' our time a bit longer before we can draw any firm conclusions!
In my state mail in votes are processed to the point just until scanning into the voting tally. On election night the ballots are scanned and reported on the same date.
I have some anecdotal personal experience to support the early conclusions in this article. On our last regular door knocking for Dems in Wisconsin, the party gave us a choice to get out the vote of known Democrats OR go to a small town in a red county that had shown some signs of turning purple and try to identify Harris voters from those identified as undecided. We chose the latter option.
My husband and I thought it was a good day. We identified 8 voters that the campaign had previously identified as undecided as “definitely” Harris Walz voters. Three of them had already returned their mail in ballots, and the ballots had just arrived by mail. It must have been a same day or day after return.
Here’s hoping that the hunch of positive enthusiasm for Harris/Walz turns into a trend.
Thank you all from the bottom to top of my❤️🙏for your diligent work. I feel a little less worried!
And this is exactly why the repubs are trying so hard to stop counting votes by mail - even to the point of doing nothing (in the House they are the majority) to fix issues with the post office that are certain to cause valid ballots not to be counted
#PaintTheBallotBlue (knock on doors)
Really helpful piece, thank you, Jay. As you say, if postal voting is generally down from 2020 as a proportion of overall votes, that makes it hard to draw conclusions for likely outcome from them but let's encourage every Harris supporter - including young voters to vote as early as possible to protect ourselves from the (literal!) winds of fortune.
One bit I struggled to understand: "Bonier observed that “just over 1 in 3 of the PA GOPs who have already voted by mail cast their ballot on [Election Day] in 2020, as compared to just 1 in 10 of PA Dems. So the GOP is converting voters to mail voting, but that still isn't enough to keep up with [the] Dems.”
Can people who've already voted by mail also vote in person? That sounds like 2 votes! (Forgive stupid question - I really don't get that bit.)
In my state, Illinois, a voter who requested a mail in ballot but changes their mind and wants to vote in person has to surrender their mail in ballot at the polling place. For voters who requested a mail in ballot but “lost it,” they can sign an affidavit and cast a provisional ballot.
It's definitely a poorly worded sentence.
I understand that you can vote in person, but you must have your mail in ballot and surrender it to the poll workers.
These statistics are worth following. Thanks for the hard work.
Side note... Can we talk about the lack of political lawn signage happening this year? I think dems have always been a bit low key on advertising who they vote for but the absence of Trump lawn signs speaks volumes about both our current political situation and the "limited" enthusiasm for DJT.
Great article!
In my state a R group sent out absentee applications with an envelope for your county auditor! This is the same party that screamed foul about mail in ballots last time. Grubbers gonna grub.
Hard not to be at least somewhat optimistic about Dem chances in PA, even w/o going all "tea-leaves"...but just turn those numbers around, and what would your take be? I for one would be soooo pessimistic over our chances, and depressed as hell!
So, having seen the early VBM numbers, the Harris campaign should just keep going balls to the wall, as this state is the Big One for the 2024 election, hands-down.
AZ? tRump squeaks in, party reg. since 2020 greatly favors the Rs. NC? Hurricane Helene threw a spanner in the works, not only affecting voters sentiments re: how fast help is arriving to battered communities, but simple logistics of getting ballots to and from voters, apart from in-person voting...so, impossible to figure. GA? Leans tRump, it's all about turnout and Black-voter enthusiasm.
But, win PA and NE "blue dot", it's ballgame.
Excellent, useful, well-thought-out piece, thank you for your hard work.
sigh. Glad to see the enthusiasm is there. But at the risk of mucking up column content for just before the 2028 election, I'd like to point out the virtues of universal vote by mail.
Washington has had county-optional Vote By Mail since 2005, and mandatory state wide since 2011. In that time, the Heritage Foundation data sheet has found 6 (six) instances of fraud related to the mail in system between 2005 and 2010, and none since then. All but one involved a relative voting the ballot of an recently ineligible/dead voter which arrived at their house Needless to say, the foreign born population has pretty much doubled since 2000.
This is despite ballots arriving in your mailbox where those narsty thieves could steal them (but don't), drop boxes abounding, no picture ID needed, and an over 84% turnout, in the 2020 election.
With the proper precautions, universal mail-in voting is safe, without all the hassles of who is entitled to absentee ballots and the hassles of applying for them. And since no ballots are even generated if one is not registered, clearly no massive "furriner's sneaking into the polling places." And the ballots will go out 18 calendar days before the election and EVERYONE registered will have one with no extra effort. Returns are post-paid, though in my case the drop box is considerably closer to my house than the nearest PO or PO box.
Someone needs to pay attention.
not to mention, quite a few of Republican ballots returned may be voting for Kamala...
The polls revealed numerous trends but were unable to predict the final outcome. Early voting offers tantalyzing glimpses of what may be, but the sample is still too small and the crystal ball remains rather murky. I guess we'll just have to be 'Biden' our time a bit longer before we can draw any firm conclusions!
Here in NC, we have early voting from 10/17 - 11/2. We are encouraging in-person voting rather than absentee ballots.