Yay you! Being an older white guy, I know my share of Republicans. Most won't vote straight Dem, but I don't know anyone voting for Trump. It could be they're not telling me about it, but I know a few who are pretty vocal about it.
I think this is a hidden key – the party affiliation breakdowns conceal anti-trump defections. I saw an estimate of 5-9% potential defection rate somewhere. Even if not reliable it’s a comforting thought.
I’m sure there are plenty of registered Republicans who are switching over. Considering the caliber of Republican candidates I cannot blame them. (I noticed that in NV Jacky Rosen was outpolling and outraising Sam Brown by a huge margin, and the NRSC abandoned NV and AZ as well.)
We can see who returned ballots by party, gender, and age, but we can’t really see if there are crossover votes until those ballots are opened and tabulated. I am sure there are plenty of Republican women (and men) who don’t want to vote for Trump, or whichever clown car candidate is running for Senate. In 2016, there were Democrats who voted for Trump (or Stein or Johnson). We might be seeing a reverse effect in 2024.
I am convinced that Trump's base is at the very least static if not diminishing. There's no way he is attracting new voters. Especially given his steep mental decline of late. So it may be that the early Trump voters now (since they been given permission) are the same Trump voters who voted on election day last time. If so, they won't be showing up there this year. Hoping hard that this is the case. Your analysis certainly doesn't show bad news for dems. The clear, undeniable enthusiasm gap between dems and repubs and anecdotal data on cross over repubs bodes well.
In 2016, Trump was the “business mogul outsider” who promised to “drain the swamp,” running against a historically unpopular Democratic candidate. People who might otherwise have voted Democratic or stayed home, voted for Trump out of 1) dislike for Clinton, 2) giving a middle finger to The Establishment, and 3) ha ha ha how bad could Trump be? He’s just a doofus! (1 and 3 were pretty much told to me verbatim by an acquaintance I am no longer acquainted with.)
In 2020, he was the incumbent. That almost always gives an advantage. People stick with incumbents, and it says a lot that Joe Biden was able to give Trump the boot.
Now in 2024 - Trump’s mental and physical health are in very blatant decline, he has a VP who everyone hates, and there is less visible enthusiasm for him - no boat parades and stuff like that. Kamala was right. His rallies are boring and people leave early. Like you, I cannot imagine Trump significantly *expanding* his base. There may be a few first-time Gen Z voters who think that Old Man Who Yells At Cloud might be worth a vote, but I have a hard time imagining who a Biden 2020 to Trump 2024 voter might be.
When Joe Biden said “no” to a second term and the party coalesced around Harris so quickly, the rug was yanked right out from under the feet of the double haters who were unenthusiastic about *either* Biden or Trump. Nobody can call Harris old or lacking in energy. Poof went one talking point. Then when the R’s were all poised to go anti-Semitic or dig up dirt on Josh Shapiro, Harris went and picked America’s Lovable Dad, Tim Walz. Kamala has Coach, Donald has Sofa King.
I’m sorry to say this and it is only because I’m sick to my stomach over it: I know two people who I suspect didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 who are doing so now. My cousin’s wife and my young nephew (who couldn’t vote in 2016). It’s terrifying. I hope they’re anomalies!
Early voting has started here in Texas this past Monday and the lines in my town are stretching the length of the buildings where the polling places are. I'm not able right now to move around freely right now so the prospect of standing in those lines are a little daunting. I'll make the effort next week because we're not going back!🌊🌊
Mary, that’s exactly why I vote early. I’m not able to stand for long periods of time. Working from home gives me the flexibility to go during “off” hours when the lines are much shorter.
My husband went by yesterday around 1 PM to our closest location is the mall. The line stretched the length of the mall! Granted it's a one story mall and half the stores have moved out so anybody there was there to vote.
As a generalization, I find the breakdown by age in Pennsylvania interesting: it shows that people don't generally tend to get too involved in voting (or politics in general) until their 50s, and it stays strong until their mid-70s, when many have died or become infirm. I hope 2024 is the year that changes that, with increasing turnout by young people.
Somewhere - I can’t remember where, though - I read a paper that suggested it wasn’t “voters get more conservative as they get older” as in Democrats deciding to become Republicans in their 50’s. It was more “people who don’t vote until their 30’s or even 40’s tend to be more conservative.” Those who stay aloof from politics to the point of not voting *at all* tend to be more distrustful of institutions in general and feel alienated and like the world is changing too fast for them. So they kind of hit the ground running in midlife as conservative. This is how it is in the 21st century; the church and country club Bush and Romney young Republicans aren’t really much of a force anymore.
South Park Nihilists grow up to be MAGA. At least that is how I understood it.
I’m not seeing anything here about registered Republicans voting for Democrat candidates. My twitter feed is full of posts from Republicans voting for Harris. Is there anyway to add that into your calculations?
Most of this kind of data comes from Sec of State offices, so they wouldn't have info on "how" people voted, just that they voted. I think Jay's description of the Marist poll, which is a bit more like an exit poll rather than a predictive poll, gives a clue. It strongly suggests to me that some Republicans are crossing over.
An election consultant that I trust has stated that of the 20% of Republicans who started in the frigid cold of Iowa and throughout all of the Republican primaries took the time to vote against Trump, he expects Harris to get 50% of their votes and he also believes the majority of the rest will leave the president spot on their ballot blank or stay at home. There were enough blank presidential ballots in both AZ and GA to give Trump those states in 2020! I hope with General Kelly’s comments about fascist Hitler loving Trump will also increase Harris’ vote counts! A pox on those Republican scum such as Sununu in New Hampshire still voting for Adolph Hitler Trump, you support a fascist traitor then you are a fascist traitor!!
I tend to be almost painfully optimistic about most things, so I don't trust myself well on these matters. And I hadn't even considered all the primary voters who tried to shoo him away. I think I'm gonna stick to my optimism. I smell a landslide that isn't at all being reflected in the polling. It's all decided at the GOTV level, but the ground game seems very strong.
Think about it Charles, the temperatures in Iowa during the Republican caucuses was about 20 to 39 below zero and snow on the ground as I remember. It took a huge effort to go out in that weather to make a statement against the Orange Monster! Also, check out the Washington Post map showing a red/blue map of contributions for either Trump or Harris. The map of my AZ looks pretty blue as 85% of the AZ population lives in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas!!! Also, the Navajo Nation gave Biden a 60,000 vote margin in 2020 and Biden only won the state by 10,000 votes! Keep the faith!!!
Sununu the “moderate,” my foot. Charlie Baker is a moderate, Brian Sandoval in NV is a moderate, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a moderate (and all have fled politics). Phil Scott is about the last moderate left standing in an actual government position. Sununu let the mask slip big time. I hope Joyce Craig, the Democratic NH-GOV candidate, wins.
My husband is a registered Republican and I am registered as an Unaffiliated (Independent) in Arizona. We live in Trump country (Yavapai County). We both voted a straight blue ticket. I think we might be missing a lot with polling and statistical analyses (not to discount your and your sources amazing work, Jay). Nothing is accounting for what I believe to be a significant amount of Republican ballots being cast for Harris/Walz.
Thanks for the deep dive here. The podcast the other night also gave out much needed positive vibes. My sense is that at least a few of these "Republican" registered voters are voting for Kamala. The opposite is most certainly not true. Dems are not crossing over to vote for Trump.
I'm glad Gov Kemp is not running here in Georgia. He's pretty popular, I hate to say, and would possibly have had some unpleasant coattails. If he's campaigning for Trump, I haven't noticed, but then that stuff isn't in my lane, so I could have missed it.
I get a strong sense that many Georgia Republicans are voting a straight Republican ticket, but not for Trump. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger may be one of them. His office just fended off a cyber attack against the part of its website that offers info on absentee ballots. I can't imagine he doesn't hate Trump with every fiber of his being.
In PA I believe mail in ballot counts are inclusive of early in person voting. So the real question is are more Democrats waiting to vote until Election Day? Why would they be waiting to vote in person then instead of voting in person early? Key question, and let’s hope it’s due to post-pandemic behavior shift instead of being reflective of a lack of enthusiasm.
A van from the county board of elections came to my campus in PA on the 29th. Eligible voters could request mail-in ballots, which were printed in the van immediately. Voters could then fill them out on the spot. So it was almost instant, one-stop mail-in voting. It looked a lot like early in person voting, but it wasn't quite.
Allegheny County has early in-person voting. Here in Pittsburgh, my closest location today would CCAC Homewood. Last week there was voting at the Soldiers & Sailors Museum. I believe Pa goes county-by-county on this, as in (all-too-) many other voting questions.
In my canvassing (hundreds of doors in the last couple of weeks in Pittsburgh and Wilkinsburg) I’ve found that many, probably most, (Democrat) voters who vote every election are waiting for Election Day. It’s what they’ve always done (pandemic excepted), they know where to go, it might even be a social thing. (I did mail-in, only because I’m a poll worker on 11/5, and I wish they would mail back an “I Voted” sticker. Maybe even that’s a factor.)
Been knocking on doors in PA this weekend. I will update my comment based on the fact that no one knows that early in person voting is a thing given it is new this year. Also, the precinct polling places are a lot closer than the local elections offices, so it makes a lot of sense that people aren’t voting early in person in large volume.
Absolutely true on both counts. I had in mind comparing election day voting to mail-in voting, which is even more convenient (kitchen table). Not only is early in-person voting less convenient than the local precinct, the rules are confusing even for people who know about it("Wait, no more voting at Soldiers & Sailors museum?" "CCAC Homewood? Where the heck is that?")
Here in Chicago, the mail-in ballot arrives with an “I Voted” sticker, thankfully! We also get an email that says they’ve received our ballot and it has been COUNTED. Feels very good! But I will say still most people I know prefer to go in person, they trust it way more. My friends and family all go early and in-person. But it seems that’s either unavailable or people are unaware it exists in PA.
Marjorie - I’m new to NYS. Where do I find out what’s on the ballot before heading to the polls? In Colorado we got a “blue book” mailed to us before the ballots arrived. All the candidates were listed, as well as the ballot issues AND the tax impact of each of the ballot issues. Other than President, Senator, and Representative, I only know who not to vote for by the maga signs down the street!
We have an idea who is voting by gender, age and affiliation, but we won’t know if there are defections and cross-over votes until those ballots are opened and counted. Looking at the considerable number of primary voters Nikki Haley was able to peel off, as well as how well Rosen and Gallego are doing in NV and AZ respectively in terms of polling and fundraising, *and* how the NRSC has hung Sam Brown and Kari Lake out to dry - I think things are much better in NV and AZ than might be apparent at first glance.
Even if it turns out to be a ticket-split situation, it’s hard to imagine either Brown in NV or Lake in AZ doing the scrappy underfunded underdog come-from-behind victory dance. They are not AOC. I bet you money there are a ton of McCain Republicans in AZ who are still furious at how Lake has treated McCain and his memory. They may or may not vote for Harris; they will absolutely cross over for Ruben Gallego, a veteran and a moderate (much like Mark Kelly except not everyone can be an astronaut!).
I was reading about where Mitch McConnell was allocating money, it was a link on a forum post somewhere, and there was NONE for Florida. Either: McConnell figures Scott can self-fund, McConnell is still sore at Scott for doing a “heckuva job” in 2022 with his Senate recruits, or there are serious warning signs for Republicans in Florida. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell may be a long shot, BUT it seems there’s a chance, even if #1 and #2 are the main reasons behind McConnell not funding Rick Scott. (McConnell is whining that Trump is a terrible person and terrible leader, but, Mitch, you had a big part in breaking it, now you gotta own it. You don’t get to be all self-righteous on your way out the door.)
Bit of tea-leaf reading re: early-voting, particularly 2024, cf. 2020...2022 was mid-terms, and absent tRump on the ballot it's apples and oranges IMHO..
The only solid datum point is this year's gender breakout, which suggests in these swing-state analyses, woman are truly making the difference,and if sustained will be the decider for the Dems.
Also, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and Olivia Troye (former National Security advisor to Mike Pence) are actively campaigning for VP Harris around the country. I would instead look at new voter registrations, especially among women and Gen Z.
I think that Kamala Harris holding that conference with Liz Cheney was absolutely the right thing to do. Country over party! And these Haley/Cheney mostly affluent professional women *vote*. They may not be down with all of the Democratic Party agenda in general, but they want body autonomy for themselves and their loved ones. They certainly don’t want to be denied necessary medical care. These are not women who take kindly to being told “No,” and I hope that in this case, “Karen” storms the voting booth and churns up a blue tsunami.
Kamala could get a lot of young people off the couch by not calling genocide "Israels right to defend itself" and committing to ending America complicity in Genocide.
Tell them a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump and he will give Nethanyahu permission to obliterated Gaza. Besides Stein is in the pocket of the Russians.
I have, and they aren’t moved. I hope, as Impossible Santa Wife notes below, that they are few in number. But a few thousand can throw a close election.
Single issue foreign policy voters are rare. I know you say you “know of them” but I am sure they are few. Or they may not vote at all. In any case I have no sympathy for them. If I’m going to have a fopo cause, it’s Ukraine and Taiwan, all much better off under Harris.
I don't want to be too pessimistic but what numbers do you to make you think that the decline in Democrats voting via mail ballots is not a decline in overall Democrats going to polls? What is they don't show up on election day either? Why would anybody who enjoyed the convenience of mail-in voting go back to voting in person?
I live in Florida where early voting started this past Monday. Mail-in voting is available to anyone requesting it. I always vote early in-person because I enjoy seeing my ballot go into the machine & see my ballot counted as it rings up the number. Voted all blue yesterday.
I voted early by mail-in ballot that I drove to the recorder’s office but only because I was urged to do so by those I follow on Substack. To our family, voting in person feels good and is a tradition and we like it. But I was happy to give it up to help the cause.
I know that a lot of young first time voters want that rush of “I’m an adult! I can vote! Look at me doing my civic duty!” It really does feel good to a lot of us - even though my first election was 1984 and Reagan won in a landslide that year, I still felt like my voice was being heard. And of course, you get a sticker. (Now they have the stickers with the mail in ballots.)
Some people just like the camaraderie, some people feel more confident handing their ballot to a person, and others just wait till the last minute. And of course we still have one week and four days, as of today, so we shouldn’t borrow trouble. I know I like to vote early, but there are a TON of Last Minute Lucys and Larrys out there who will be rushing to a drop box or polling place at 7:45 PM on Tuesday.
Just to let you know, I am a registered Republican in Nevada, and I voted early, straight Democratic. I am not alone.
Yay you! Being an older white guy, I know my share of Republicans. Most won't vote straight Dem, but I don't know anyone voting for Trump. It could be they're not telling me about it, but I know a few who are pretty vocal about it.
Same. I’m in a safe blue state so it doesn’t matter but every Republican I know well enough to talk politics with has said they are voting for Harris.
Harris at the top or leaving it blank with R further down.
That’s what my late father did in 2020. Left the top blank and probably voted R down ballot.
I think this is a hidden key – the party affiliation breakdowns conceal anti-trump defections. I saw an estimate of 5-9% potential defection rate somewhere. Even if not reliable it’s a comforting thought.
That is on line with what we’ve seen in polling.
I’m sure there are plenty of registered Republicans who are switching over. Considering the caliber of Republican candidates I cannot blame them. (I noticed that in NV Jacky Rosen was outpolling and outraising Sam Brown by a huge margin, and the NRSC abandoned NV and AZ as well.)
We can see who returned ballots by party, gender, and age, but we can’t really see if there are crossover votes until those ballots are opened and tabulated. I am sure there are plenty of Republican women (and men) who don’t want to vote for Trump, or whichever clown car candidate is running for Senate. In 2016, there were Democrats who voted for Trump (or Stein or Johnson). We might be seeing a reverse effect in 2024.
I am convinced that Trump's base is at the very least static if not diminishing. There's no way he is attracting new voters. Especially given his steep mental decline of late. So it may be that the early Trump voters now (since they been given permission) are the same Trump voters who voted on election day last time. If so, they won't be showing up there this year. Hoping hard that this is the case. Your analysis certainly doesn't show bad news for dems. The clear, undeniable enthusiasm gap between dems and repubs and anecdotal data on cross over repubs bodes well.
In 2016, Trump was the “business mogul outsider” who promised to “drain the swamp,” running against a historically unpopular Democratic candidate. People who might otherwise have voted Democratic or stayed home, voted for Trump out of 1) dislike for Clinton, 2) giving a middle finger to The Establishment, and 3) ha ha ha how bad could Trump be? He’s just a doofus! (1 and 3 were pretty much told to me verbatim by an acquaintance I am no longer acquainted with.)
In 2020, he was the incumbent. That almost always gives an advantage. People stick with incumbents, and it says a lot that Joe Biden was able to give Trump the boot.
Now in 2024 - Trump’s mental and physical health are in very blatant decline, he has a VP who everyone hates, and there is less visible enthusiasm for him - no boat parades and stuff like that. Kamala was right. His rallies are boring and people leave early. Like you, I cannot imagine Trump significantly *expanding* his base. There may be a few first-time Gen Z voters who think that Old Man Who Yells At Cloud might be worth a vote, but I have a hard time imagining who a Biden 2020 to Trump 2024 voter might be.
When Joe Biden said “no” to a second term and the party coalesced around Harris so quickly, the rug was yanked right out from under the feet of the double haters who were unenthusiastic about *either* Biden or Trump. Nobody can call Harris old or lacking in energy. Poof went one talking point. Then when the R’s were all poised to go anti-Semitic or dig up dirt on Josh Shapiro, Harris went and picked America’s Lovable Dad, Tim Walz. Kamala has Coach, Donald has Sofa King.
I’m sorry to say this and it is only because I’m sick to my stomach over it: I know two people who I suspect didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 who are doing so now. My cousin’s wife and my young nephew (who couldn’t vote in 2016). It’s terrifying. I hope they’re anomalies!
This Michigander & partner (who voted by mail in 2020) will vote in person this weekend when early voting begins! BTW: straight Democratic ticket.
Early voting has started here in Texas this past Monday and the lines in my town are stretching the length of the buildings where the polling places are. I'm not able right now to move around freely right now so the prospect of standing in those lines are a little daunting. I'll make the effort next week because we're not going back!🌊🌊
Mary, that’s exactly why I vote early. I’m not able to stand for long periods of time. Working from home gives me the flexibility to go during “off” hours when the lines are much shorter.
My husband went by yesterday around 1 PM to our closest location is the mall. The line stretched the length of the mall! Granted it's a one story mall and half the stores have moved out so anybody there was there to vote.
Can you still order an absentee ballot? Do you have drop boxes? Might be easier than standing inline.
Unfortunately, it's too late to order a ballot. Hopefully by Monday things will have cleared out somewhat. 🤞
Thanks for the analysis Jay. The nerd in me appreciates the detail.
Just voted and nailed the final 200 postcards (get out the vote for Georgia).
Let’s do this!
As a generalization, I find the breakdown by age in Pennsylvania interesting: it shows that people don't generally tend to get too involved in voting (or politics in general) until their 50s, and it stays strong until their mid-70s, when many have died or become infirm. I hope 2024 is the year that changes that, with increasing turnout by young people.
Somewhere - I can’t remember where, though - I read a paper that suggested it wasn’t “voters get more conservative as they get older” as in Democrats deciding to become Republicans in their 50’s. It was more “people who don’t vote until their 30’s or even 40’s tend to be more conservative.” Those who stay aloof from politics to the point of not voting *at all* tend to be more distrustful of institutions in general and feel alienated and like the world is changing too fast for them. So they kind of hit the ground running in midlife as conservative. This is how it is in the 21st century; the church and country club Bush and Romney young Republicans aren’t really much of a force anymore.
South Park Nihilists grow up to be MAGA. At least that is how I understood it.
Some South Park nihilists became Bernie Bros
I’m not seeing anything here about registered Republicans voting for Democrat candidates. My twitter feed is full of posts from Republicans voting for Harris. Is there anyway to add that into your calculations?
Most of this kind of data comes from Sec of State offices, so they wouldn't have info on "how" people voted, just that they voted. I think Jay's description of the Marist poll, which is a bit more like an exit poll rather than a predictive poll, gives a clue. It strongly suggests to me that some Republicans are crossing over.
An election consultant that I trust has stated that of the 20% of Republicans who started in the frigid cold of Iowa and throughout all of the Republican primaries took the time to vote against Trump, he expects Harris to get 50% of their votes and he also believes the majority of the rest will leave the president spot on their ballot blank or stay at home. There were enough blank presidential ballots in both AZ and GA to give Trump those states in 2020! I hope with General Kelly’s comments about fascist Hitler loving Trump will also increase Harris’ vote counts! A pox on those Republican scum such as Sununu in New Hampshire still voting for Adolph Hitler Trump, you support a fascist traitor then you are a fascist traitor!!
My own sense is that there will be around 1/3 of Haley voters crossing over, or around 8 percent of the GOP.
I tend to be almost painfully optimistic about most things, so I don't trust myself well on these matters. And I hadn't even considered all the primary voters who tried to shoo him away. I think I'm gonna stick to my optimism. I smell a landslide that isn't at all being reflected in the polling. It's all decided at the GOTV level, but the ground game seems very strong.
Think about it Charles, the temperatures in Iowa during the Republican caucuses was about 20 to 39 below zero and snow on the ground as I remember. It took a huge effort to go out in that weather to make a statement against the Orange Monster! Also, check out the Washington Post map showing a red/blue map of contributions for either Trump or Harris. The map of my AZ looks pretty blue as 85% of the AZ population lives in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas!!! Also, the Navajo Nation gave Biden a 60,000 vote margin in 2020 and Biden only won the state by 10,000 votes! Keep the faith!!!
Faith kept.
Sununu the “moderate,” my foot. Charlie Baker is a moderate, Brian Sandoval in NV is a moderate, Arnold Schwarzenegger is a moderate (and all have fled politics). Phil Scott is about the last moderate left standing in an actual government position. Sununu let the mask slip big time. I hope Joyce Craig, the Democratic NH-GOV candidate, wins.
My husband is a registered Republican and I am registered as an Unaffiliated (Independent) in Arizona. We live in Trump country (Yavapai County). We both voted a straight blue ticket. I think we might be missing a lot with polling and statistical analyses (not to discount your and your sources amazing work, Jay). Nothing is accounting for what I believe to be a significant amount of Republican ballots being cast for Harris/Walz.
Thanks for the deep dive here. The podcast the other night also gave out much needed positive vibes. My sense is that at least a few of these "Republican" registered voters are voting for Kamala. The opposite is most certainly not true. Dems are not crossing over to vote for Trump.
I'm glad Gov Kemp is not running here in Georgia. He's pretty popular, I hate to say, and would possibly have had some unpleasant coattails. If he's campaigning for Trump, I haven't noticed, but then that stuff isn't in my lane, so I could have missed it.
I get a strong sense that many Georgia Republicans are voting a straight Republican ticket, but not for Trump. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger may be one of them. His office just fended off a cyber attack against the part of its website that offers info on absentee ballots. I can't imagine he doesn't hate Trump with every fiber of his being.
In PA I believe mail in ballot counts are inclusive of early in person voting. So the real question is are more Democrats waiting to vote until Election Day? Why would they be waiting to vote in person then instead of voting in person early? Key question, and let’s hope it’s due to post-pandemic behavior shift instead of being reflective of a lack of enthusiasm.
Pennsylvania does not have early in-person voting that I'm aware of as a resident here.
It does, it is called “On-Demand Mail Ballot Voting” and is an in-person one stop early voting period that lasts until October 29th:
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/voter-support/mail-in-and-absentee-ballot/mail-ballot-before-election-day.html
It’s not true in person. More like dropping off your mail ballot.
A van from the county board of elections came to my campus in PA on the 29th. Eligible voters could request mail-in ballots, which were printed in the van immediately. Voters could then fill them out on the spot. So it was almost instant, one-stop mail-in voting. It looked a lot like early in person voting, but it wasn't quite.
Allegheny County has early in-person voting. Here in Pittsburgh, my closest location today would CCAC Homewood. Last week there was voting at the Soldiers & Sailors Museum. I believe Pa goes county-by-county on this, as in (all-too-) many other voting questions.
In my canvassing (hundreds of doors in the last couple of weeks in Pittsburgh and Wilkinsburg) I’ve found that many, probably most, (Democrat) voters who vote every election are waiting for Election Day. It’s what they’ve always done (pandemic excepted), they know where to go, it might even be a social thing. (I did mail-in, only because I’m a poll worker on 11/5, and I wish they would mail back an “I Voted” sticker. Maybe even that’s a factor.)
It’s certainly a semi-social thing for me. I actually enjoy the experience of voting on Election Day proper. And it guarantees I’ll get my sticker.
Been knocking on doors in PA this weekend. I will update my comment based on the fact that no one knows that early in person voting is a thing given it is new this year. Also, the precinct polling places are a lot closer than the local elections offices, so it makes a lot of sense that people aren’t voting early in person in large volume.
Absolutely true on both counts. I had in mind comparing election day voting to mail-in voting, which is even more convenient (kitchen table). Not only is early in-person voting less convenient than the local precinct, the rules are confusing even for people who know about it("Wait, no more voting at Soldiers & Sailors museum?" "CCAC Homewood? Where the heck is that?")
Here in Chicago, the mail-in ballot arrives with an “I Voted” sticker, thankfully! We also get an email that says they’ve received our ballot and it has been COUNTED. Feels very good! But I will say still most people I know prefer to go in person, they trust it way more. My friends and family all go early and in-person. But it seems that’s either unavailable or people are unaware it exists in PA.
We should do that here! In my case, I'll be a poll worker on Tuesday, able to hand out "I voted" stickers, so I'll certainly hand one out to myself!
I am a Dem in NYS. Voting blue on Saturday and I will ugly cry while doing so. I know the impact of this election.
Marjorie - I’m new to NYS. Where do I find out what’s on the ballot before heading to the polls? In Colorado we got a “blue book” mailed to us before the ballots arrived. All the candidates were listed, as well as the ballot issues AND the tax impact of each of the ballot issues. Other than President, Senator, and Representative, I only know who not to vote for by the maga signs down the street!
NM - I remembered about a little thing called the internet. Found out I can vote early at the Susan B. Anthony House!!
also track down League of Women voters (if that's not the internet result you got), they usually have data about the candidates, props, etc...
We have an idea who is voting by gender, age and affiliation, but we won’t know if there are defections and cross-over votes until those ballots are opened and counted. Looking at the considerable number of primary voters Nikki Haley was able to peel off, as well as how well Rosen and Gallego are doing in NV and AZ respectively in terms of polling and fundraising, *and* how the NRSC has hung Sam Brown and Kari Lake out to dry - I think things are much better in NV and AZ than might be apparent at first glance.
Even if it turns out to be a ticket-split situation, it’s hard to imagine either Brown in NV or Lake in AZ doing the scrappy underfunded underdog come-from-behind victory dance. They are not AOC. I bet you money there are a ton of McCain Republicans in AZ who are still furious at how Lake has treated McCain and his memory. They may or may not vote for Harris; they will absolutely cross over for Ruben Gallego, a veteran and a moderate (much like Mark Kelly except not everyone can be an astronaut!).
I was reading about where Mitch McConnell was allocating money, it was a link on a forum post somewhere, and there was NONE for Florida. Either: McConnell figures Scott can self-fund, McConnell is still sore at Scott for doing a “heckuva job” in 2022 with his Senate recruits, or there are serious warning signs for Republicans in Florida. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell may be a long shot, BUT it seems there’s a chance, even if #1 and #2 are the main reasons behind McConnell not funding Rick Scott. (McConnell is whining that Trump is a terrible person and terrible leader, but, Mitch, you had a big part in breaking it, now you gotta own it. You don’t get to be all self-righteous on your way out the door.)
Bit of tea-leaf reading re: early-voting, particularly 2024, cf. 2020...2022 was mid-terms, and absent tRump on the ballot it's apples and oranges IMHO..
The only solid datum point is this year's gender breakout, which suggests in these swing-state analyses, woman are truly making the difference,and if sustained will be the decider for the Dems.
We do not know who the Republicans voted for. Their vote is private. But remember more than 700 former National Security and Military Officials have endorsed VP Harris for President https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/22/national-security-officials-endorse-harris?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Also, Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger and Olivia Troye (former National Security advisor to Mike Pence) are actively campaigning for VP Harris around the country. I would instead look at new voter registrations, especially among women and Gen Z.
I think that Kamala Harris holding that conference with Liz Cheney was absolutely the right thing to do. Country over party! And these Haley/Cheney mostly affluent professional women *vote*. They may not be down with all of the Democratic Party agenda in general, but they want body autonomy for themselves and their loved ones. They certainly don’t want to be denied necessary medical care. These are not women who take kindly to being told “No,” and I hope that in this case, “Karen” storms the voting booth and churns up a blue tsunami.
Kamala could get a lot of young people off the couch by not calling genocide "Israels right to defend itself" and committing to ending America complicity in Genocide.
I have the same concern in Michigan. I know of Democrats who are voting for Stein because of Gaza.
Tell them a vote for Stein is a vote for Trump and he will give Nethanyahu permission to obliterated Gaza. Besides Stein is in the pocket of the Russians.
I have, and they aren’t moved. I hope, as Impossible Santa Wife notes below, that they are few in number. But a few thousand can throw a close election.
Single issue foreign policy voters are rare. I know you say you “know of them” but I am sure they are few. Or they may not vote at all. In any case I have no sympathy for them. If I’m going to have a fopo cause, it’s Ukraine and Taiwan, all much better off under Harris.
I don't want to be too pessimistic but what numbers do you to make you think that the decline in Democrats voting via mail ballots is not a decline in overall Democrats going to polls? What is they don't show up on election day either? Why would anybody who enjoyed the convenience of mail-in voting go back to voting in person?
I live in Florida where early voting started this past Monday. Mail-in voting is available to anyone requesting it. I always vote early in-person because I enjoy seeing my ballot go into the machine & see my ballot counted as it rings up the number. Voted all blue yesterday.
I voted early by mail-in ballot that I drove to the recorder’s office but only because I was urged to do so by those I follow on Substack. To our family, voting in person feels good and is a tradition and we like it. But I was happy to give it up to help the cause.
I know that a lot of young first time voters want that rush of “I’m an adult! I can vote! Look at me doing my civic duty!” It really does feel good to a lot of us - even though my first election was 1984 and Reagan won in a landslide that year, I still felt like my voice was being heard. And of course, you get a sticker. (Now they have the stickers with the mail in ballots.)
Some people just like the camaraderie, some people feel more confident handing their ballot to a person, and others just wait till the last minute. And of course we still have one week and four days, as of today, so we shouldn’t borrow trouble. I know I like to vote early, but there are a TON of Last Minute Lucys and Larrys out there who will be rushing to a drop box or polling place at 7:45 PM on Tuesday.