The High Stakes Election Coming Up In Virginia
As donors plan to converge on Virginia to possibly woo Gov. Glenn Youngkin into running for President next year, the November 7th legislative elections couldn't be more consequential.
On November 7th, elections will be held all over the country, mostly at the very local level since 2023 is an off year.
One of the exceptions to this is Virginia, where all 140 seats of the General Assembly—including all 40 State Senate seats and all 100 of its House of Delegate seats—are up for election.
Currently, Democrats hold a 22-18 majority in the State Senate, while Republicans have a 49-46 advantage in the House of Delegates. And both sides are going all out ahead of this important showdown.
The Democratic National Committee as well as Virginia’s Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who won a surprise victory in 2021, are flooding the state with millions of dollars in the lead-up to November 7th because they know how high the stakes are.
Virginia is the only southern state that has not passed abortion restrictions in the wake of last year’s Dobbs decision. Virginia Republicans are desperate to change that and finally pass an abortion ban.
And Democrats are determined to stop them.
What is the current state of the race, and what are the stakes both in and outside of Virginia? We’ll explore these questions today in The Big Picture.
Abortion Rights Are On The Ballot In Virginia
In the second quarter of 2023, Glenn Youngkin raised almost $6 million to boost Virginia Republicans, a record amount.
And now the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has injected $1 million more into legislative campaign coffers on top of the DNC’s infusion of $1.5 million, which was distributed at Joe Biden’s direction and represents 15 times the amount they invested in the state four years ago. These funds for the most part will target 15-20 races seen as the most likely to determine control of the General Assembly.
Why is everyone going all in on the Virginia legislative races this year? The home page graphic on the Virginia Democrats’ website lays out what’s at stake.
The most likely consequence of a Republican victory in both houses of the General Assembly would be to enable Youngkin to push through his promised abortion ban.
As of today, elective abortions are permitted in Virginia through the first two trimesters of a pregnancy. But all that would change if Youngkin gets his way.
As DLCC President Heather Williams told Axios:
“It is the first time a legislature is on the ballot post-Dobbs. The stakes could not be clearer: Does Virginia lose access to abortion or not?”
And if Republicans win both houses of the general assembly?
“[Virginia Republicans] will deliver an abortion ban."
What will that ban look like?
According to NBC News, Youngkin views a 15-week ban with exceptions as the “consensus” position, although local Democrats will gladly remind voters Youngkin proudly declared his intention to sign “any bill…that would protect life” that made it to his desk.
But strategically, Youngkin sees proposing a 15-week ban as a supposedly safe middle ground that could prevent the surge of anti-GOP turnout that has driven Democrats to overperform in election after election around the country ever since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v Wade.
We all remember the November midterms, in which Democrats kept the GOP to a slim House majority and added a Senate seat even as Republicans touted a “Red Wave!”
Well, Democrats’ post-Dobbs overperformance didn’t stop there. According to a recent ABC News analysis, in 2023 alone Democrats have overperformed in special election after special election by an average of 11 points, including two within just the last two weeks.
And so it would follow that this Democratic strength at the polls should continue in Virginia next month as well. Youngkin no doubt remembers the January 10th special election in which Democrat Aaron Crouse narrowly flipped a Virginia state Senate seat to help Democrats expand their majority in the chamber.
Is Youngkin’s 15-week abortion ban the antidote to a repeat performance this November?
What Is The State Of The Race For Virginia’s General Assembly?
The latest polling in the state has the race for control of the General Assembly virtually tied, but there are some encouraging signs for Democrats heading into the November 7th elections.
According to a University of Mary Washington Center for Media and Leadership Studies poll released September 27th:
When asked which party they prefer to control the state’s general assembly, 40% said Democrats and 37% said Republicans.
53% of respondents said that abortion access would be a “major factor” in their vote, which includes 70% of Democrats and just 35% of Republicans.
Support for legal access to abortion “all” or “most” of the time was 57% in favor and just 35% opposed.
And Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating came in at just 40%, slightly above his 37% disapproval, but well down from his 45%-30% rating a year ago.
None of this should be surprising, really, since Virginia has acted like a bona fide “blue state” ever since the 2008 election. But even during this same period, as Virginia voters elected Democrats for President and U.S. Senate, they have also supported two Republican Governors: Bob McDonnell in 2009, and then Glenn Youngkin in 2021.
Despite those errant eight years, thanks to Democratic leadership Virginia’s election laws have focused on expanding access to the ballot box for Virginia voters. And that means they have the longest pre-election early vote period of any state in the country: 45 days of no-excuse in-person early voting.
For this cycle, that early vote period began on September 22nd, and according to Simon Rosenberg, the first day in the Democratic stronghold of Prince William County was quite promising.
A look at a breakdown of turnout by district paints a more even picture, with the highest turnout among House of Delegate districts in competitive and Lean Republican districts, while the turnout was the highest in State Senate districts that are competitive or Lean Dem.
So there is still a lot of work to do to help Virginia Democrats hold the State Senate and flip the House of Delegates, which is absolutely crucial because the consequences of a Republican sweep go well beyond just Virginia’s borders.
Why Virginia’s Results Have National Implications
The conventional wisdom after Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election was that Glenn Youngkin’s victory was a result of suburban voters revolting against “woke” Covid policies, particularly as they pertained to educational curriculum and transparency. Remember the great “Critical Race Theory” scare of 2021?
Youngkin was also seen as a “Goldilocks” candidate who was able to attract suburban moderates AND Trump’s MAGA crowd with a well-timed “parents matter” message.
So, here we are in 2023, and with chaos reigning in the GOP race for president next year, Youngkin is being wooed as the GOP’s savior. Donors frightened that none of the GOP contenders has a chance to take out Trump are preparing to converge on Virginia later this month, as Robert Costa put it in The Washington Post last week, “to draft Glenn Youngkin.”
One GOP billionaire donor made the stakes of next month’s Virginia election clear as day, saying of a potential Youngkin run:
“He appears to be leaving the door open. And if Republicans win in Virginia, maybe we can talk him into it. He obviously wants to see what emerges, what the state of play is. The money would be there.”
Of course, the entire premise of this draft campaign is absurd. First of all, ask Ron DeSantis how being the “anti-woke” candidate is working for him in 2023, as he has clearly modeled his entire governorship and presidential race on the Youngkin 2021 model.
And the notion that Republicans are concerned about parents’ rights? All evidence is to the contrary as Republican legislatures around the country have instituted book bans and anti-trans legislation to impose their own beliefs on all citizens, overriding those of parents and medical professionals.
Indeed, the same poll that found Democrats narrowly leading Republicans for control of the General Assembly found that 42% of Virginia voters want Youngkin “to have less power over local school decisions” while 40% want him to have the same or more.
Professor Stephen Farnsworth, the director of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, says this should serve as a warning sign for Youngkin.
“It’s a suggestion that the governor’s strategy of weighing in aggressively on education is not particularly helpful to swing voters.”
So if these GOP donors think they can pluck 2021 Youngkin and plop him down into 2023 with the same electoral success, they are likely in for a rude awakening, not just on this issue, but on abortion rights as well.
2021 simply existed in a different political world than this current moment, before Trump’s stacked Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and lit a fire among left-leaning and moderate voters.
In the last year and a half, the suburban and moderate voters that Youngkin appealed to back then have consistently turned out as solid Democratic voters revolting against a radical, out-of-control Christian nationalist GOP that wants to force women and girls to give birth against their will.
Yet if Virginia Republicans win on November 7th, none of this will matter. Youngkin will be seen as the majority maker, will proceed to do his victory lap in the form of an abortion ban, and will be touted as the savior of the Republican party in 2024.
There’s another distinct reason the November 7th Virginia elections have national resonance, and it’s related to what we just saw play out on the floor of the House of Representatives this week.
As Democratic Virginia delegate Dan Helmer posted this week:
If Republicans are allowed to sweep back into power at all levels of government in Virginia without any checks, it would be a validation of the chaos that extreme Republicans have wrought in the U.S. House. It would tell Republicans: Keep it up.
According to Rep. Jennifer Wexton, 170,851 Virginians would have been furloughed if the government had shut down. The fact that Republicans brought us to the brink of such an event should be a deal-breaker for Virginia voters.
The only way any of this GOP radicalism stops is if there is a political cost to them. And that’s what’s at stake on November 7th.
Now, to be fair, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, lost the House in 2018, lost the presidency and the Senate in 2020. And then in 2022, his party vastly underperformed expectations.
He is a proven loser, yet most Republicans stick with him. But the very fact that donors are wooing Youngkin shows that there is an acknowledgment that the party needs to move away from loser Trump.
And now it’s time to show them that Youngkin is a loser as well.
As Simon Rosenberg said during a recent live Zoom rallying folks to work to win Virginia:
"Youngkin is sort of their last best hope after DeSantis' stumble. If we can win in Virginia, we start taking away one of the safety valves they have, one of the options they have in case Trump were to stumble or fall st some point in 2024.”
So, What Can We Do To Help Democrats Win In Virginia?
Over the summer, Virginia Democrats launched The Majority Project, directed at driving the early vote to help Democrats win on November 7th.
Per Simon Rosenberg’s comprehensive list of resources, here’s how we all can support The Majority Project and drive the early vote in the coming weeks:
Donate to the Majority Project - all funds go directly to the targeted Virginia House and Senate campaigns that will determine control of the legislature
Majority Project Phonebank - call into these targeted races
Also, check out Virginia Grassroots, which has done so much terrific work on the ground.
Also, The Sister District Project has launched phone banks for folks to call Virginia voters.
If you live in Virginia or know someone who does, this is the key information to know to ensure we get out the vote to help Democrats hold the State Senate and flip the House of Delegates:
Deadline to register to vote, or update an existing registration: October 16, 2023 (Voters may register after this date, through Election Day, and vote using a provisional ballot).
Deadline to apply for a ballot to be mailed to you: October 27, 2023. Your request must be received by your local voter registration office by 5:00 p.m.
Voter registration offices open for early voting: Saturday, October 28, 2023.
The last day of in-person early voting at your local voter registration office: Saturday, November 4, 2023 at 5:00 p.m.
See who is on your ballot by viewing the candidate lists.
Register to vote or apply for an absentee ballot online using the Citizen Portal
Joe Biden recently told a crowd at a campaign event that the fight for the Virginia General Assembly this year is the first election of the 2024 general election.
And we need to treat it as such.
A 15-week abortion ban is NOT a compromise.
Fatal fetal abnormalities and maternal risks are often detected much later.
Obstacles to getting abortions (unnecessary additional ultrasounds and exams) can easily push women past this arbitrary number.
Virginians should also be reminded that GOP activists are already priming groups to attack birth control pills, gay marriage, and public education.
Where will it stop? It won't while Republicans hold majority positions in Virginia's state legislature, school boards, and particularly, the gubernatorial seat.
Come on Virginia, do the right thing! Stay blue! We, in North Carolina, need a safe state nearby to escape to, since ours insists on going to hell.