Spoiler Alert: Whose Campaign Will RFK Jr. Hurt More?
As Trump boosts Kennedy's independent run as a way to harm Biden, could the strategy backfire?
In a piece last June, I called RFK Jr. “The Right’s Trojan Horse,” making the case that Democrats should not be fooled into thinking Kennedy is a real Democrat—despite his famous name—and that in fact he was being boosted and funded by Republicans to harm Biden in the 2024 race.
Since then, even Kennedy himself seemed to acknowledge that he is no Democrat, or at least that his views are anathema to most Democrats, when he dropped out of the primary against Biden last fall and launched an independent bid.
Indeed, despite Kennedy’s claims of being in the campaign to win it, there is growing evidence that he is simply serving to bolster Trump’s chances by peeling off left-wing support from Biden. At least, that seems to be the plan according to a recent video featuring a (now former) Kennedy staffer plotting the path forward in 2024 with New York Republicans to use RFK Jr. to “block Biden from winning the presidency.”
While the Kennedy campaign distanced themselves from that staffer and even fired her, the clear alignment between Kennedy’s and Trump’s bases is obvious to anyone who’s paying attention. As she made clear in the video:
"the Kennedy voter and the (Donald) Trump voter...our mutual enemy is Biden."
In my piece last year, I predicted that as more people got to know RFK Jr. as opposed to simply judging him based on his famous name, his support would dwindle. And we’re seeing that happen, with his Real Clear Politics average of 9% today a far cry from the 20% being touted by Republicans and Fox just over a year ago.
But even as his campaign remains a longshot and continues to hemorrhage support, seven months out from Election Day, Kennedy now claims to have enough support to have secured a spot on several states’ ballots. And as we know all too well, all Kennedy needs to do to impact the election is to be on the ballot in a few swing states.
So while Kennedy’s campaign is hardly lighting the nation on fire, it does appear that he’ll be an option for millions of voters around the country in November and could pose an electoral threat as a spoiler. But for whom? Could boosting Kennedy actually backfire on Republicans?
In today’s article, I’ll follow up where my last piece left off and dig into some lingering questions about Kennedy’s quixotic campaign for president. I hope to remind anyone who needs to hear—and feel free to share with any RFK Jr. curious friends—just how radical and MAGA-esque Kennedy really is.
How MAGA Stopped Worrying And Learned To Love RFK Jr.
In my June piece, I noted that Kennedy’s Democratic primary campaign was being touted by right-wing figures like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson, and that Kennedy was regularly featured on right-wing media outlets such as Newsmax, Fox, and The Daily Wire. As if to prove the point, Sean Hannity even featured Kennedy for a full hour-long “town hall”-style interview in July, which was described by The Washington Post as follows:
[Hannity’s] questions were no less pointed than the ones 2022 Republican candidates faced. Kennedy’s challenge to Biden was framed in near heroic terms, positioning the conspiracy theory enthusiast as the sole person brave enough to challenge the Democratic establishment.
But as WaPo notes, Hannity changed his tune once Kennedy declared as an independent candidate. He was now eager to paint Kennedy as a run-of-the-mill liberal because he suddenly began seeing Kennedy as a potential threat to Trump’s bid to retake the White House. This line of attack was echoed by the RNC, which released talking points touting Kennedy as “Just Another Far-Left Democrat.”
As for Trump, after initially praising RFK Jr. as “a very smart person,” he has changed his tune as well, calling Kennedy a “Radical Left Democrat” on Truth Social recently, even claiming that RFK Jr.’s candidacy “is great for MAGA” and that he “loves that he is running.”
So while Semafor reported back in October that Kennedy sparked “anxiety” in the hearts of MAGA world, it seems they now see him as a means to an end. The New York Times reported just last week that part of Trump’s entire strategy now is not to win over more voters himself, but rather to use third-party candidates, including Kennedy, to siphon off votes from Biden.
They plan to promote the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a “champion for choice” to give voters for whom abortion is a top issue — and who also don’t like Mr. Biden — another option on the ballot, according to one person who is involved in the effort and who, like several others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the plans.
Trump allies also plan to amplify the progressive environmental records of Mr. Kennedy and the expected Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, in key states.
And right-wing donors seem to be getting the message that a donation to RFK Jr. is a proxy donation to Trump. According to a Politico analysis, there is far more overlap between Kennedy and Trump donors than between Kennedy and Biden.
And as The New York Times lays out:
Timothy Mellon, the largest single donor to Mr. Kennedy’s biggest super PAC, is also the largest backer of MAGA Inc. Mr. Mellon, a reclusive billionaire from one of America’s wealthiest families, has over the past year given the Kennedy super PAC $20 million and the Trump super PAC $15 million, as of the most recent disclosures that were filed in March. Another prominent Kennedy backer is Patrick Byrne, the former chief executive of Overstock.com who worked with Mr. Trump on his effort to overturn the 2020 election.
The strategy is clear.
The DNC has wasted no time in raising the alarm that Kennedy’s campaign is “Powered by MAGA.”
DNC advisor Lis Smith stated it plainly:
“It’s clear that Donald Trump and his allies view him as a useful stalking horse who could help throw the election to Trump in November.”
As DNC spokesman Matt Corridoni puts it:
“Being propped up by Trump’s largest donor tells voters all they need to know about RFK’s candidacy: He’s a spoiler for Trump.”
But How Many Ballots Will Kennedy Actually Be On?
The primary hurdle for Kennedy—and the main determining factor of the impact he will ultimately have on the race—is whether he is able to get on state ballots around the country.
Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Kennedy would not be seeking the Libertarian nomination for president, opting instead to garner the requisite signatures to get on each state’s ballot himself.
Kennedy spun the decision as evidence of the strength of his campaign, saying:
"We're not gonna have any problems getting on the ballot ourselves so we won't be running Libertarian.”
He even claimed:
"We're going to add probably two to three states a week."
But after Kennedy had previously openly considered pursuing the Libertarian nomination, which would have made ballot access far easier, there’s now speculation that the rift with the party may have derived from his choice of Nicole Shanahan—a tech lawyer and former Democrat worth hundreds of millions of dollars—as his Vice Presidential pick.
While Shanahan’s radical vaccine skepticism and opposition to IVF make her a perfect fit as Kennedy’s running mate, Libertarian National Committee Chair Angela McArdle hinted at conflict between the party and Kennedy’s VP pick.
Per The Hill:
“I think that a lot of libertarians are a little bit confused over why he chose Nicole Shanahan. I’m sure she’s a lovely person, but she doesn’t necessarily fit into alignment with any of our views.
“I think that he’s going to have to really show us, and she certainly will as well, that they care about individual and economic freedom in particular, and that they want to continue to be, you know, they want to be our standard-bearers.”
But perhaps what Shanahan lacks in Libertarian Party alignment she makes up for in money. As Politico notes
Shanahan’s wealth and ability to financially support the campaign’s operations — including gathering petition signatures to get on the ballot and potential litigation — are advantageous to the Kennedy ticket.
As of Monday, according to The Brookings Institute, the Kennedy Shanahan ticket claims they have gathered enough signatures to get on the presidential ballot in Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa, and Utah. Among these, only Utah thus far has confirmed ballot access, and the campaign may need to redo their signature gathering entirely in the state of Nevada to comply with the state’s requirement that a VP nominee must be named at time of filing.
Kennedy’s plan is also to use his newly formed We The People Party to get on the ballot in California, Delaware, Hawaii, and Mississippi. It should be noted, however, that because Kennedy and Shanahan are both residents of California, they would not be eligible to accept the state’s electoral votes should they win them unless one of them moves (not that anyone thinks Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are in danger of losing the state, of course.)
As Brookings notes, in order to win the presidency, a third-party ticket needs to be on enough state ballots to win 270 electoral votes. But to be merely a spoiler, the threshold is much lower: Just get on swing state ballots and cleave a point or two away from the other candidate to swing the election. With Kennedy potentially on the ballot in even just the battleground states of North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, that could potentially be enough to spoil the election, although we await final confirmations from secretaries of state.
Kennedy’s Ever Shrinking Campaign
If there’s a bright spot in the right’s attempt to paint Kennedy as an acceptable Biden alternative for disaffected liberals, it’s that Kennedy’s flailing campaign didn’t seem to get the memo.
If you ask him, RFK Jr. will say he IS a spoiler of sorts, but not the way Trump wants you to think.
"Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that," Kennedy said. "It’s a spoiler for President Biden and for President Trump. It’s a spoiler for the war machine. It’s a spoiler for Wall Street and Big Ag and Big Telecom and Big Pharma and corporate-owned media ..."
And the more Kennedy opens his mouth, the more clear it is that he is Trump-lite, and not an alternative to Biden at all, whether it’s Kennedy’s bizarre parroting of MAGA talking points about Biden being more of a threat to democracy than Trump, or his recent claim in an e-mail calling January 6th rioters “activists” whose “constitutional liberties were stripped” from them.
Just as with the staffer Kennedy’s campaign threw under the bus, so, too, did they disavow that e-mail, blaming a “consultant.”
There was also the revelation that Team Trump had approached Kennedy about a VP slot:
And honestly, is there a worse way to get Democrats to vote for Kennedy than to have Trump essentially endorse him?
And to any Democrats who support Bobby, Jr. out of nostalgia for his father’s legacy or the Kennedy name, his own family will be reminding us all just whom they support for President.
While the right seems to think they’re onto something with their stealth Kennedy strategy, the polling says something else entirely. Look at Kennedy’s trend of support by monthly polling average since he declared his independent run:
It’s no accident that as Biden shores up his base and rises in polling, Kennedy’s support falters.
And even as Kennedy issues confusing retractions whenever confronted with things he plainly said, there is one consistent message coming from him that aligns him with Trump and is diametrically opposed to Biden, one that could ultimately prove to shift Trump voters more his way and serve as an anti-Trump spoiler in the end.
To Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster, Kennedy’s appeal for voters on the right is more about the “anti-establishment, burn-it-all-down vibe.”
“At the end of the day, Kennedy can leverage some of the ‘weirdo factor’ ― and in 2024, there are more Trump weirdos than Biden weirdos,” McCrary said.
Yep, every time RFK makes an audible noise he loses credibility with the non-insane component of the electorate and ingratiates himself to the average trump voter.
"No one knows you're stupid until you say something."
A vote for anyone but Biden is a vote for Trump. Period.