The GOP Tests the Bounds of Democracy in Ohio Today

If the Ohio GOP's Issue 1 passes, it would increase the voting threshold for constitutional amendments to 60% in a clear effort to target November's abortion rights measure.

Vote Ohio state map outline. Photo by Getty Images.

It’s Election Day in the state of Ohio, where voters will go to the polls to decide a question of major importance, not just to their state, but to the country and to the broader principle of majority democratic rule.

Specifically, will voters support Issue 1, a ballot referendum to approve a constitutional amendment that would require a supermajority (i.e., 60 percent) and impose a highly onerous ballot qualification process in order to adopt all new state constitutional amendments going forward? 

In other words, are Ohio voters ready to hand power over to a minority to block future changes to the state constitution?

To understand what’s going on in Ohio, we need to look at three things:

1. The state’s long history of being heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans;

2. A constitutional amendment on the ballot this November to protect abortion rights; and

3. Issue 1 itself, including how it is a calculated attempt to circumvent the will of the majority of the voters on abortion rights.

Let’s do a quick tour of the history of how it has come to this in the Buckeye State. Then we’ll assess the chances of this end-run around democracy actually working.

How the Ohio GOP holds on to power

The Ohio district maps for state and federal representatives have been heavily gerrymandered in favor of the GOP ever since a GOP-controlled legislature first drew maps that were signed off on by a Republican governor.

According to the Dayton Daily News, In 2004, Ohio Republican candidates won 51.3 percent of all votes Ohioans cast for Congressional seats. But Ohio sent twice as many GOP representatives as Democrats that year to the House: 12 Republicans and six Democrats. That’s a Congressional delegation that was 66 percent Republican in a state that was almost evenly split.

In the 2012 election, the Ohio GOP won 52.1 percent of all votes cast, but they comprised 75 percent of the Congressional delegation.

Currently, after the 2022 redistricting and midterms, the state has 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats representing it in Congress. That’s a two-to-one split, in a state that still elects Democrats to statewide federal office, such as Sen. Sherrod Brown.

The most recent election also wound up giving the GOP a supermajority in the state government. The GOP controls the state House (67 to 32) and the state Senate (26 to 7). And that supermajority has allowed them to run amok with their lawmaking.

So, why can’t there be fairer representation? Ohio does have a Redistricting Commission. But it’s hardly non-partisan. In fact, it’s stacked with GOP cronies. 

Ohio voters had approved a constitutional amendment to attempt to redistrict fairly, but the Ohio Redistricting Commission reinterpreted it to favor the GOP. It wound up proposing maps that the Ohio State Supreme Court rejected multiple times. By acting in contempt of that court, the GOP ran out the clock on the 2022 election. In the end, a federal court intervened and ruled that the elections should proceed, even though the maps to be used were already held unconstitutional by the state’s own Supreme Court.

If that’s not a raw exercise of political power and disregard for the rule of law, it’s hard to imagine what is. That unchecked power has led to a mad scramble by the GOP to keep voters from going around them and straight to the ballot initiative process, especially when citizens get organized to protect things like abortion rights.

Abortion rights under attack, and the response by progressives

Abortion remains legal in Ohio up to fetal viability, around 22 to 24 weeks, but that right is hanging by a thread. Last year, in the wake of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Republican supermajorities in the state legislature passed one of the most restrictive abortion bans in the country—one that kicks in at just six weeks, often before a woman even knows she is pregnant.

A court has issued a stay of that law, temporarily blocking its enforcement. “No great stretch is required to find that Ohio law recognizes a fundamental right to privacy, procreation, bodily integrity and freedom of choice in health care decision making,” the judge ruled in the order.

That ruling is now being appealed. In the meantime, abortion rights activists got busy. Through a great ground game of citizen organizing, they qualified a ballot initiative for the November election later this year that would preserve the status quo—meaning abortion would remain legal in the state of Ohio up to the point of fetal viability. 

Polls show that a strong majority of voters approve of the measure, with a USA Today/Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in July showing that 58% support it.

But 58 percent isn’t quite 60 percent, and that’s where the GOP has stepped in to mess with the democratic system. They have advanced something they call “Issue 1,” the ballot initiative being voted on in Ohio today.

They want to make it very hard to protect abortion rights

The road to Issue 1 is emblematic of the lengths to which the GOP now goes to usurp the will of the majority of voters, particularly when it comes to abortion. 

For starters, Issue 1’s timing is highly suspect. It is being decided during an August election, which is both expensive for the state to run and, the GOP figured, likely to depress turnout because so many voters are away and have summer on their minds, not politics.

Tellingly, the GOP-controlled legislature previously had passed a law saying that elections were not to be held in August for precisely these reasons. But when it became politically expedient to do so, just months later, Republicans changed their minds and pushed for the August timeline—all so it would happen before the abortion rights question is decided in November.

While preparing for Issue 1 to be on the August ballot, Republicans first insisted that the supermajority requirement was not about abortion. But that was a lie. In June, the Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who happens also to be running for U.S. Senate, told his supporters that Issue 1 “is 100 percent about keeping a radical, pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution.” And the backers of Issue 1 have used anti-abortion messaging and imagery in their advertising in support of the measure. 

Further, it’s important to point out that the GOP initially tried to use highly misleading language to sneak Issue 1 past the voters. The group One Person One Vote had to sue because the ballot language 1) did not state what the law actually currently is, 2) did not include the full text of the amendment on the ballot, 3) did not accurately describe the new hurdles that activists would have to jump through to qualify ballot measures going forward, and 4) had a misleading title (“Elevating the standards to qualify for and to pass any constitutional amendment”) which suggested it would apply to all constitutional amendments, and not just those brought by ballot initiative.

One Person One Vote won only a partial victory before the Republican-dominated state Supreme Court. It corrected the language describing the changes to the signature-gathering process, and it agreed to rename the ballot title without using the word “any” in reference to “constitutional amendment.” But it ruled against them on the other requested changes. All three Democrats on the Court dissented with respect to that part of the ruling.

It’s also critical to know that big money is behind the effort to secure minority rule in Ohio by the 40 percent. According to The Guardian, the Issue 1 campaign has been bankrolled by Richard Uihlein, an Illinois billionaire and GOP mega-donor. Uihlein has spent more than $5 million of his own money on the effort so far. 

Recently, as the vote drew nearer, Issue 1’s proponents turned to fear tactics to garner support for their measure, saying that “liberal special interest” groups are trying to “hijack” Ohio’s constitution. Here was a campaign mailer they recently sent out (x-ed out by the recipient)

So how do things look?

Issue 1 has a lot more interest among Ohio voters than initially expected. According to the Ohio Capitol Journal, which is covering early voting on the measure, “Through the first seven days, about 16,000 voters showed up to cast their ballots each day. Fourteen days in, however, that average has risen to more than 18,000 a day.”

At last update, according to the Secretary of State’s office on August 4, “With four days remaining until the August 8 special election, 578,490 Ohioans have already voted.” And CBS News Pittsburgh reports that early turnout has caused strain in some election offices, which are now trying to recruit additional poll workers. “This is gubernatorial-level turnout,” said a deputy director of the board of elections in Stark County. 

But is the enthusiasm and momentum with Issue 1’s proponents or its opponents? That remains unclear. Earlier polls showed most voters opposing the measure. A USA Today / Suffolk poll out a bit more than two weeks ago found 57% of voters were against Issue 1, 26% backed it, and 17% were undecided.

But a different poll from Ohio Northern University released more recently showed the race is a dead heat, with 42.4 approving, 41 percent disapproving, and 16.6 percent still undecided. 

Turnout among the base, as well as enthusiasm among younger voters and women, ultimately will determine whether Issue 1 can be defeated. But this isn’t just Ohio’s battle. That state is a testing ground for other efforts to enact similar measures in other states. Indeed, a conservative non-profit group calling itself the Foundation for Government Accountability, which is also backed by billionaire Uihlein, has been involved in efforts in other states to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments.

That means a win in Ohio, or even a close call, could result in renewed efforts to put copycat ballot measures before the voters across the nation, particularly in states where Republican power is entrenched.

A lot hinges on what Ohio voters do today.