Could No Labels Play Spoiler and Get Trump Elected in 2024?
What is the No Labels movement, who is behind it and who could ultimately benefit?
With each indictment, it seems Trump’s hold over the old “law and order” party grows stronger.
So, as the potential of a Biden v. Trump rematch looms ever larger in 2024, shouldn’t we be doing everything in our power to ensure a Biden victory?
You’d think so. Yet, one “centrist” group appears intent on delivering the White House to Trump once again.
No Labels is working to get a bipartisan third party “unity ticket” on state ballots all across the country next year under the guise of offering voters “a choice” when really it would just hand the presidency to Trump.
Why that’s a recipe for disaster and what folks on both the left and right are doing to stop it is the topic of today’s The Big Picture.
– George Takei
In 2020, the Democratic Party had a rigorous primary, with a record-setting 29 candidates declaring their run. It was an ideologically diverse crowd, including arguably the most progressive members of the U.S. Senate—Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren—as well as younger candidates who tried to run in a more moderate lane such as Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg.
Yet in the end, Democratic Party primary voters chose former Vice President Joe Biden—the centrist Washington veteran who promised to work across the aisle—as the party’s nominee.
And remarkably, as President—even with a mere 50-50 Senate majority for the first two years of his presidency—Biden had some real bipartisan accomplishments including a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, the first gun safety reform bill passed in decades negotiated with 10 Republican Senators in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas tragedy and the CHIPS and Science Act to fund microchip manufacturing in the United States which had enough support in the Senate to overcome the 60 vote filibuster threshold.
In other words, President Biden did exactly what candidate Biden promised: work across the aisle to get things done for the American people.
So it’s a weird flex for some so-called “centrist” and “independent” groups to devote resources to trying to get on the ballot in the 2024 presidential election when the Democratic President is already doing things they claim to want—and claim no one in Washington is doing.
At a time when the alternative is an anti-democratic authoritarian who poses an existential threat to the nation, 2024 is the worst possible moment for a potential third party spoiler candidate.
But that’s exactly what No Labels is threatening to be, despite their protestations to the contrary.
What Is No Labels?
With the prospect of a potential Biden vs Trump rematch in 2024, No Labels has embarked on an effort to get themselves on state ballots around the country as a third party with the intention of nominating a “Unity Ticket” made up of one Democrat and one Republican at their nominating convention next April.
Per a memo by Third Way, No Labels plans to spend upwards of $70 million to deploy hundreds of canvassers across the country to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures to get on states’ 2024 presidential ballots.
According to NBC News, as of mid-June, No Labels had already gathered enough signatures to appear on the 2024 presidential ballot in 5 states and expected that number to rise to 20 by the end of the year.
To back up their effort, No Labels claims that their own 2022 polling shows that 64% of respondents “want more options than just Democrats and Republicans” and 59% would be open to a “moderate independent” ticket of the sort they plan to assemble.
It’s true, of course, that polling has shown for years that there is an appetite for an alternate choice in presidential elections other than the two major parties. According to Gallup, that number peaked at 62% just after the 2020 election but has consistently dropped in the subsequent two years, down to 56%.
But many are skeptical that No Labels’ polling means what they think it means.
Five Thirty Eight has a great takedown of the No Labels effort, in an article titled:
“No Labels Is Chasing A Fantasy”
In it, Geoffery Shelley outlines the three political misconceptions at the heart of the No Labels project.
"First and foremost, the share of the electorate made up by independent moderates isn’t large enough to win a presidential election."
"Secondly, despite distaste for Biden and Trump, each remains well-liked by his party, reducing the potential draw of a No Labels candidate. Meanwhile, the group’s aim of markedly increasing turnout over 2020’s record-high mark will require the difficult task of getting even more low-propensity voters to turn out."
"Lastly, finding a candidate who could maximize No Labels’s appeal won’t be easy because there’s nobody named 'moderate independent' who embodies the varied preferences held by voters disenchanted by the idea of another Biden-Trump matchup."
This skepticism is shared by many on the left and anti-Trump right, who genuinely fear No Labels could deliver the White House to Trump.
As Lucy Caldwell—political strategist and anti-Trump former Republican—puts it:
“The No Labels team is pushing the idea that Biden versus Trump is a true black swan moment and opportunity [for a third-party ticket], but no one else is seeing that. There’s a growing concern among people who are concerned about democracy.”
And Stuart Stevens—veteran Bush and McCain strategist who ran Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign—put it bluntly:
“The only way you can justify this is if you really believe that it doesn’t really matter if it is Joe Biden or Donald Trump. So it is sort of a test. If you live in a world where it doesn’t matter, this is kind of harmless. If you live in a world where it does matter, it is dangerous.”
For their part, No Labels insists concerns about a spoiler effect of their “unity ticket” are overblown.
Dr. Ben Chavis—Democratic Chair of No Labels—said in a recent interview:
“No Labels is not and will not be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024.”
He insisted:
“After Super Tuesday next year [and] before the [No Labels] convention in Dallas in April, there will be a decision. If we find that the polls are changed and Joe Biden is way, way out ahead, and the person who the Republicans may choose—and if they continue to choose Donald Trump, even though he’s been indicted—then No Labels will stand down.”
So, Who’s Right?
No Labels claims there would be no spoiler effect as a result of their “Unity Ticket” because, as they put it:
"This kind of ticket would draw an EQUAL share of support from both major parties."
And sure, their polling does show 14% of Republicans and 14% of Democrats would be willing to support such an independent bid.
But as Third Way points out in their devastating memo exposing the No Labels spoiler effect, No Labels’ own polling actually shows their “Unity Ticket” would in fact throw the election to Donald Trump:
"In their data, the head-to-head matchup shows Biden and Trump tied, at 42 and 43 percent respectively. But in a three way, their 'moderate independent' candidate polled at 20%, with Biden at 28% and Trump at 33%. So, they come in a distant third and throw the election to Trump."
It’s true that as No Labels points out, those three data points only add up to 81%. Their polling in fact finds 18% of voters would be listed as “Don’t Know/Unsure” in this scenario.
But when the addition of the No Labels candidate reduces Biden’s share of the vote by 14% and Trump’s by just 10%, it’s disingenuous to argue the candidates would be equally impacted.
This spoiler effect is mirrored in polling by a new bipartisan group led by former Democratic Congressman Richard Gephardt, which plans to formally launch next week with its release of its own polling including samples from 7 swing states.
According to The Washington Post, the results of their polling is remarkably similar to that of No Labels:
"Both the Gephardt group’s polling and polling conducted late last year by No Labels shows the 'moderate, independent' generic candidate pulling about 20 percent of the vote in a three-way hypothetical contest with Biden and Trump."
"Both polls show that the third-party would pull more from Biden than Trump."
Greg Schneiders—former aide to President Jimmy Carter whose Prime Group conducted this new polling for Gephardt’s group—put it bluntly:
“No Labels equals Trump. It is going to affect the race and it is going to affect it negatively for Biden, and it is probably going to elect Donald Trump.”
It makes sense that this independent ticket would pull more from Biden than from Trump.
Look at Third Way’s analysis of No Labels’ target voter pool:
"No Labels’ target voters would come out of the Biden coalition."
"In a head-to-head, Biden carries voters on the fence. AP Votecast found Biden won voters who had backed Jill Stein and Gary Johnson by 30 points. And Biden won 'double haters,' voters who did not like either major party candidate, by 15 points in 2020."
"An April 2023 poll found that Biden leads Trump by a whopping 39 points among voters who disapprove of both presidencies. Giving them a third-party choice clearly helps the GOP."
To believe No Labels’ “unity ticket” actually has a chance of winning the election rather than guaranteeing a second Trump term, you’ve got to buy into the group’s unbelievable claims about the viability of such a ticket.
The group’s own electoral vote map demonstrates that its only path to 270 electoral votes is to win such “stretch” states as North and South Dakota, which Trump won by more than 25% in 2020, and Massachusetts and Vermont, both of which Joe Biden won by more than 30%.
And contrary to this “fantasy map,” as Third Way calls it, No Labels themselves have essentially admitted they have no path.
"Their pollster, HarrisX, said they would need 'about 37 percent of the popular vote' to get to 270 electoral votes (EVs), an assertion repeated on the No Labels website. But their own polling reveals their candidate garners only 20% of the national vote."
It would be comical if it weren’t so serious.
Exposing No Labels
Even as a third Trump presidential candidacy seems increasingly likely, No Labels appears to be digging in their heels.
On Sunday, they plan to release a set of policy proposals that would lay the groundwork for their 2024 ticket’s platform, to be followed by a “Common Sense” town hall event featuring West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin in New Hampshire on Monday. Manchin has refused to rule out a third party run next year, so the flirtation with No Labels has some Democrats concerned about his motives.
In fact a new Echelon Insights poll shows if Joe Manchin were to run on a third party ticket against Trump and Biden, he would turn a 2 point Biden victory into a 1 point Trump win.
Which is why this new bipartisan group led by Richard Gephardt and a growing list of political leaders on both sides of the aisle is so crucial to calling out the true impact of No Labels’ third party run.
In the coming days, the group is expected to release their polling showing the effort’s spoiler effect, as well as unveiling more politicos who’ve signed on to the effort. And unlike No Labels, they will be making their donors public.
But the spoiler effect of No Labels’ “unity ticket” is not the only aspect of the organization that is getting pushback. Officials in crucial states where No Labels is seeking ballot access are also exposing the project’s sketchy petitioning practices.
The Arizona Democratic Party is filing a lawsuit against the state’s Democratic Secretary of State as well as No Labels themselves to challenge the group’s recognition as a political party in next year’s election. Specifically, they are challenging No Labels’ certification of ballot signatures, questioning the validity of the affidavits from proposed electors.
Additionally, in Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows has issued No Labels a cease and desist letter after getting complaints from voters who didn’t realize that signing the group’s “Unity Ticket” petition actually changed their party registration.
“Voter after voter is telling my team that they were instructed that they were merely signing a petition. They were not told they were changing their political party."
"We have had enough similar complaints from voters and clerks alike that it raises serious concerns in our office about No Labels Party organizers.”
Mother Jones also published an exposé of 36 wealthy donors to No Labels’ 2024 “Unity Ticket” effort, which “appear to favor conservative candidates, though many have played both sides of the aisle, financing Republican and Democratic politicians.”
This follows The New Republic’s revelation that Harlan Crow, famous billionaire benefactor of Justice Clarence Thomas, has been one of the group’s “whale” investors, which should on its face call into question the true motivations of the group.
As The New Republic concluded:
"There’s an important through line between No Labels and Crow, and it’s not a passion for bipartisanship. Rather, it’s indulging conservatives under the flag of bipartisanship."
"They both argue that the best solutions are ones born out of moderation, with both Democrats and Republicans involved."
"But Crow’s ardor for Thomas, who has been found to be the most conservative justice on the bench by one academic analysis, doesn’t exactly square with love of bipartisanship, and the actions by No Labels suggest that the group would rather create an opening for conservatives to thrive."
So, while No Labels continues to deny the very real possibility that their 2024 “Unity Ticket” effort could swing the election to Trump in the end, there is every reason to think such a result is a feature of the No Labels’ project, not a bug.
I have little doubt that "No Labels" is a Republican front group, and that its goal is absolutely to draw votes away from President Biden and thus ensure Trump's return to the White House.
I’m not sure who made that map but Indiana is decidedly not a Moderate Independent state. I live here & it is as crimson red and pro fascist trump as it can be. There are a few tiny blue dots here and there but no one would ever call Indiana Independent or Moderate.