Republicans Still Can’t Figure Out How To Message Abortion
Republican candidates' conflicting and dishonest messaging on abortion at the recent debate exposes a party in total disarray ahead of 2024.
Back in May, I broke down the right’s blatantly false assertion that overturning Roe v Wade was simply about sending abortion policy back to the states.
It’s true, of course, that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision did not outlaw abortion nationwide and that states are free to make their own abortion policy.
And in fact, in the intervening year plus since that radical decision came down, the nation is more divided than ever over abortion, from red state all-out bans to blue state codifications of Roe.
But what the Dobbs majority opinion actually says is:
“the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives."
Not state representatives.
Yet for many Republicans, this still somehow means “elected Congressional representatives” can put in place a national abortion ban.
Banning abortion in just the red states would never be enough for the conservative movement or this modern Republican Party, which seek to impose their Christian nationalist ideology on the entire country, not just on those in red states.
And sure enough, in September of 2022, just months after Dobbs came down, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stood with anti-abortion activists and—contrary to the GOP spin that abortion policy had now been sent to the states—introduced his 15-week national abortion ban.
According to Graham, 15 weeks “should be where America’s at.”
When I published my piece back in May, this national abortion ban ploy of Graham’s was already making things awkward for Republicans, particularly those running for president. They were torn between proving their anti-abortion bona fides to their MAGA base and not wanting to get behind a national ban that a) is well to the right of where the nation as a whole is, and b) exposes the hollowness of their “back to the states” Dobbs talking point.
Three months and one GOP debate later, we have new insight into how the Republican presidential hopefuls are threading that needle.
And spoiler alert: It’s more awkward for them than ever.
GOP Presidential Candidates Spar Over Federal Abortion Ban
The stark reality is that abortion politics have benefited Democrats at the ballot box, not just in last November’s midterms, but even into this year.
As ABC News reported:
An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean -- or the relative liberal or conservative history -- of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too.
The primary culprit: abortion rights, which recently drove two elections in which the pro-choice side far outperformed, first in a Wisconsin state Supreme Court race and then in the recent Issue 1 referendum in deep red Ohio.
Even debate co-host Martha MacCallum framed the issue this way when she introduced the abortion topic at the debate last week:
“Abortion has been a losing issue for Republicans since the Dobbs decision. In six state referendums, all have upheld abortion rights. Even in red states.”
MacCallum used this set-up to ask Nikki Haley what she would say to Republicans about how to handle the issue, “especially the impact on women suburban voters around this country.”
That set off a back and forth between Haley and Mike Pence, crystallizing the line Republicans are having to walk on the issue.
Haley was the only candidate on the stage who made an effort to navigate a middle road, even dismissing the concept of a federal ban altogether:
“We need to stop demonizing this issue…Unelected justices didn’t need to decide something this personal…
“Now it’s been put in the hands of the people. That’s great. When it comes to a federal ban, let’s be honest with the American people and say it will take 60 Senate votes. It will take a majority of the House.”
Mike Pence took the opportunity to fire back at her for adopting what passes for a nuanced view in the modern Republican Party:
“To be honest with you, Nikki, you’re my friend, but consensus is the opposite of leadership.”
And Pence even said the quiet part out loud, exposing what we already knew about the so-called “back to the states” talking point:
“When the Supreme Court returned this question to the American people, they didn’t just send it to the states only. It’s not a states only issue, it’s a moral issue.”
He then flat out pledged to pass a federal ban:
“A fifteen week ban is an idea whose time has come.”
“It’s going to take unapologetic leadership….I’ll do that as President of the United States.”
Haley fired back:
“When you’re talking about a federal ban, be honest with the American people. We haven’t had 45 pro-life Senators in over 100 years.”
“Don’t make women feel like they have to decide on this issue when you know we don’t have 60 Senate votes.”
She’s right, of course. Such a federal ban is DOA in any modern U.S. Congress. But process arguments like this aren’t usually winners in politics. Haley is trying to have it both ways: asserting her “pro-life” credentials to the MAGA base while trying not to alienate the more moderate (and ascendant) general election voters who decide elections, i.e., the suburban women voters MacCallum referenced, the very same ones who helped deliver the presidency to Joe Biden in 2020.
But credit where credit is due, at least Haley and Pence staked out positions and stuck to them.
Not so much with Ron DeSantis.
While Haley seemed to want to distance herself from her own state of South Carolina’s brand new 6-week abortion ban, Ron DeSantis leaned into the 6-week ban that he signed in Florida, saying “I believe in a culture of life. I was proud to sign the heartbeat bill.”
But when asked if he would sign a 6-week ban nationally, DeSantis was noticeably less assured:
BRET BAIER: But just to be clear, Governor, would you sign a six-week ban federally?
RON DESANTIS: I’m going to stand on the side of life. Look, I understand Wisconsin is gonna do it different than Texas, I understand Iowa and New Hampshire are gonna do it different. But I will support the cause of life as Governor and as President.
DeSantis, of course, is just trying to have it both ways as well, but his tactic is simply to evade the federal ban question altogether and fall back on the “back to the states” canard.
Of course he would sign a federal ban if it got to his desk.
The Other Abortion Big Lie
But the notion that overturning Roe v. Wade was just about sending abortion policy back to the states isn’t the only lie Republicans love to tell on this issue.
The other is much more insidious, and even had the assist of Fox News in a clear attempt to reframe the issue to make it less favorable to Democrats.
While DeSantis seemed unprepared for the question about a federal abortion ban, the one prepared line he had at the ready was a disgusting claim about late term abortion:
“What the Democrats are trying to do on this issue is wrong, to allow abortion all the way up to the moment of birth.”
This is false, of course, but DeSantis wasn’t the only one to spout it on the debate stage. It appears to be the GOP talking point du jour to make the case that actually, it is irresponsible to allow blue states to decide abortion policy for themselves.
As Senator Tim Scott said:
“We cannot let states like California, New York, and Illinois have abortions on-demand up until the day of birth. That is immoral. It is unethical. It is wrong.
“We must have a president of the United States who will advocate and fight for at the minimum a 15-week limit.”
And Fox’s Martha MacCallum tried to use it to challenge North Dakota Governor Burgum’s opposition to a federal ban.
“So as I understand it, you are not in favor of a federal ban. What do you say about the states? There's about five of them, including New Jersey, I think a few others, that allow abortion up until the time of birth.
Now, if you were president, would you be able to abide that?”
Burgum didn’t bite:
“I am on the record and I stand behind that we should not have a federal abortion ban. We should not.”
“If we say that the Fed should be in on this one, where do we stop? I say that we follow the Constitution and this is returned to the states.”
And while former Governor Asa Hutchinson was at least honest about the fact that the Dobbs decision is perfectly consistent with a federal abortion ban…
“First of all, the Supreme Court gave it back to the elected representatives, whether it's the state's or whether it's the United States Congress...”
“So there is authority.”
He then took the lie about Democrats to an absurd new level:
“And that's why President Biden is pushing for a Democrat proposal which is, in essence, abortion-on-demand through the term.”
Fighting Back Against The Right-Wing Abortion Lie
Joe Biden has indeed been clear about his desire for a national abortion law “restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade” to enshrine abortion rights for every American.
But this absurd notion of “abortion-on-demand” is purposely misleading about not only what Roe actually said, but also about what late term abortion even is.
As The Washington Post fact-check explains:
But the GOP attacks are disingenuous at best. They imply that late-term abortions are common — and that they are routinely accepted by Democrats.
The reality, according to federal and state data, is that abortions past the point of viability are extremely rare. When they do happen, they often involve painful, emotional and even moral decisions.
This point was made eloquently by former Biden Press Secretary and current MSNBC host Jen Psaki, who had an instructive segment on the topic in the wake of the GOP debate to put this lie to rest once and for all.
As Psaki said:
“This claim that Democrats support abortion up until the moment of birth is entirely misleading. First of all, abortions past the point of fetal viability do not happen often. They are incredibly rare and those that do happen involve agonizing, emotional, and ethical decisions.”
According to 2020 CDC data, 80% of abortions occur before 10 weeks of pregnancy and over 90% take place within the first 12 weeks.
Importantly:
“Less than 1% happen after 21 weeks of pregnancy.”
As Psaki says, later stage abortions are
“almost always the result of a devastating choice to save the life of the mother or because a baby that a couple desperately wanted cannot survive outside the womb. It is not a preference, it is a personal tragedy.”
Whie Republicans are desperate to flip the script, Psaki explains that all they have are lies.
“No one is rooting for late term abortions. No one is running on the platform of aborting viable babies. No one is selling late-term abortions as Ron DeSantis claims...”
“What is happening here is an attempt by Republican presidential candidates who know their views on women’s health care are out of touch with the public, they are trying to change the parameters of the debate. They’re doing that by inaccurately describing the positions of leaders on the other side.”
Democrats Are United On Abortion Rights While Republicans Flail
Amid all the abortion lies Republicans tried to peddle last week, along with the varied convoluted strategies for dealing with the question of federal vs. state-based bans, was the overwhelming sense that Republicans are flailing on this question, throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.
Or as Politico observed, in quite the understatement:
The discussion highlights the Republican party’s disunity on abortion since the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade.
This made it even more amusing to watch GOP Chair Ronna McDaniel declare after the debate:
“I was very pleased to see them talk about abortion.”
She went on:
“Democrats used that in 2022. ... If our candidates aren’t able to fend a response and put out a response, we’re not going to win. They’re going to do it again in 2024.”
Well, in fact they already are.
In the latest sign that the Biden campaign sees the abortion issue as clearly working in his favor, on Friday his campaign released a new ad featuring the GOP male anti-choice candidates explaining their positions on abortion rights in their own words.
As Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a statement:
“This ad is the first of many that will hold all MAGA Republicans accountable for their extreme, losing positions throughout the cycle, while also highlighting the President’s support for women and their fundamental freedoms,”
McDaniel has made it clear that she believes Republicans will lose in 2024 if they don’t talk about abortion. But if last week’s debate is any indication, it might be even more of a disaster if they do.
When you write “this is not the only lie” Republicans tell it is misleading. This implies that at some point they tell the truth. I find that highly unlikely.
“We’re seeking to control women’s bodies here, and their sexuality. Why do so many women reject being controlled???” Republicans wonder.