The Big Q&A With Simon Rosenberg

Founder of New Democrat Network and the New Policy Institute—a liberal think tank and advocacy group based in Washington, D.C.—answers our questions.

In the weeks and months leading up to the midterms of 2022, there was much talk of a massive “Red Wave”—one that would sweep the Democrats from power in Congress and put Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy in charge with sizable majorities in each chamber. 

But a few lonely voices, including today’s guest Simon Rosenberg, were saying, “Hold on, that’s not what the data is telling us.”

We all should have played “Simon Says” a bit better. 

He was absolutely on the money with his predictions, and now the Senate remains in the hands of the Democrats, and Kevin McCarthy’s House majority is paper thin.

Considering his success at prognostication, we wanted to ask Simon Rosenberg what he thought about the past few special elections as well as the big 2024 election ahead. It’s an honor and privilege to have him share his thoughts with us today.

— George Takei and Team

1) In 2022, you were one of the only experts out there saying the Red Wave was really going to be a Red Meh. 

What gave you the confidence to make that prediction, in the face of all the warnings coming from nearly everyone else? 

My colleague Tom Bonier and I looked beyond polling to other data—our strong performance in the 5 House specials and the Kansas ballot initiative, improving voter registration figures, historically strong fundraising, and an early vote which outperformed both 2018 and 2020.  

All that data suggested Dem overperformance and a close competitive election, not a red wave.  We also only looked at high-quality independent polls and did not allow a flood of bad, GOP-heavy polls at the end to move us from our close, competitive election take.  

Those floods of bad GOP polls in the final few weeks caused many analysts to buy into the false red wave narrative which ended up driving the coverage in the final days.  If you bought into those bad GOP polls you were seeing a different election than the one we were seeing, and that election is not the election that happened.  

So the most important thing we did was to expand the data we were looking at beyond polls, and that data all pointed to the same thing—Dem overperformance.  

Which is the election that happened.  

2) Where did Democrats perform better than everyone expected, and where were there trouble spots? 

Is there a connection to larger issues in our country? 

There were two elections in 2022.  A bluer one inside the battlegrounds, a redder one outside.  

We ended up performing at the upper end of what was possible in 2022, picking up a Senate seat, governorships, and state legislative chambers.  It was one of the best midterm performances by a party in power in American history.  

We outperformed 2020 in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.  We got to 59% of the vote in Colorado, 57% in Pennsylvania, 55% in Michigan, 54% in New Hampshire.  

It was an amazing performance and everyone who worked to bring it about should be very proud.  It also means that the battleground, which has gone our way in 3 consecutive elections slipped a bit further away from the GOP in 2022.  

Their 2024 hill is a bit higher to climb.  

But where we didn’t run these big grassroots-fueled, muscular campaigns we fell back a bit, and we lost ground in the four biggest states—California, Florida, New York, Texas.  Our stumbles in California and New York were particularly worrisome and may have cost us the House.  

The key to our gains is that Joe Biden has been a good President and we had a lot to run on; they remain extreme and dangerous, way too much MAGA; and the millions of people who donate, text, call, canvas and write postcards have given us the best-funded campaigns and most robust field operations we’ve ever had, and that is helping push our performance to the upper end of what is possible in state after state, election after election.   

3) Many outlets reported, anecdotally, that enthusiasm among young voters and women seemed up, in part because of the Dobbs decision on abortion. 

Did you see this in your data, and what is it telling you now? 

Yes, we saw a huge spike in women registering to vote after Dobbs, and we saw Democrats outperform our 2020 numbers by 7 points in 5 House special elections and even more in Kansas.  There was an immediate, positive spike in Dem performance for us after Dobbs.  We also know from a new Catalist report and others that youth performance in the battlegrounds was very strong for us.  

To me young people are the big opportunity for Democrats this cycle.  We keep winning under 45-year-old voters by 13-15-20 points.  

But we can no longer accept that the part of our coalition that is most Democratic votes the least.  We need to make growing the youth vote a very high priority this cycle which is why I’ve called on the Biden campaign to launch a national youth voter registration drive as soon as possible.  

We need to drive youth turnout through the roof this cycle.  

4) Let’s talk Trump. Why can’t the GOP quit him, if he’s been so disastrous for them electorally?

Could someone still come from behind and take the nomination away from him? 

It was always possible for a Republican to beat Trump this cycle given his troubles, but given his performance in the last few months, it’s hard for me to believe DeSantis has the political skills to do something that is going to be very very hard, even with Elon and others behind him.   

As we look to 2024 the big thing, we know now is that it is likely the Rs will be fielding a MAGA candidate, as DeSantis is just as MAGA as Trump, and that MAGA has failed them in 3 consecutive elections in the states that matter.  

So, in every way possible as we head into 2024 I would much rather be us than them.  

5) Do you have any thoughts at this time about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House, holding the Senate, or keeping the White House? 

What big factors are you considering? 

As of today, I think we are far more likely to have a good election than they are.  Joe Biden has been a good President and the country is better off.  

The economy remains very strong despite McCarthy’s sabotage, and inflation has come way down in recent months.  The war in Ukraine has been more successful than anyone could have imagined, and by the fall of next year, people will be feeling the impact of Biden’s big economic agenda.  

So I am optimistic that Biden will be able to say I’ve made things better and deserve another term to “finish the job” as he says.  

The Republicans, on the other hand, will be running as MAGA, a politics which keeps getting rejected in the states which determine the Presidency.  

We know about Trump, but we what also know now is that DeSantis has chosen to run as an extremist on abortion, guns, our democracy, Russia, immigration, civil rights and liberties and we should be able to brand him if somehow he wins as just too far out of the mainstream to be President.  

6) What can ordinary people do today to make a difference in the outcome of the election in 2024? 

Two things.  

Work on and donate to campaigns.  

This work we do really matters.  The passion and labor of millions of proud patriots is the fuel of our politics now.  

Their fuel is the money of a few hundred oligarchs.  Our model is better, far more in the spirit of America, and it has given the biggest, most muscular, and most effective campaigns in our history.  I hope everyone reading this will become part of this incredibly important work.  

Additionally, I am hoping these millions of proud patriots do more than work on a campaign over the next two years, and choose to become what I call an “information warrior for democracy.”  

The right is louder than we are, and can still dictate the terms of the debate most days.  We need to get louder this cycle and close this loudness gap with the right.  

We, together, need to reimagine the War Room (which I worked in) not as twenty sweaty kids drinking red bulls Tweeting and TikToking their heart out but as a million or two million people a day wired together, spreading positive messages about Joe Biden, the Dem Party, the nation through their networks.  

If these 1-2 million people can reach 10 people in their networks, that's 10-20m people.  Fox News reaches 2-3m a day.  

We have more power than we know to counter their information superiority, and so my hope is that folks keep doing the work on campaigns while also starting to participate in the daily fight to get our narrative and message out in a media ecosystem that favors them.  

We need to get louder. 

7) It feels like with each contest, the stakes grow higher and higher for our country. 

Is every election going to be this traumatizing from here on, or is there hope that the five-alarm fire can be put out?

Great question.  My hope this cycle is that their escalating extremism is giving us the opportunity to seize geographic and demographic real estate, grow our coalition and our vote, and win big in 2024.  

I call it “getting to 55,” or getting to 55% of the national vote.  Biden got 51% last time.  This time we should shoot to get to 55%, and work to make this election a clear repudiation of MAGA in a way that starts to loosen its dark grip on the GOP.  

So far this year we’ve been claiming territory from them – flipping that Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin, taking away two GOP-held cities in Colorado Springs and Jacksonville.  We got into the high 50s in several key battlegrounds last year.  

So it is possible.  

May we have the courage, vision and will to get to 55 next year and deliver what we all hope is a devastating blow to MAGA.  For the sake of our democracy, we need to go big and get to 55 next year. 

Hey, it’s an honor to be with you here George.  I so admire your tenacity and your willingness to use your reach to fight for things that really matter.  You are an inspiration to many many people, and it’s great to be with you today.  

Thanks for the opportunity, and thanks for all that you do.  And remember—we all would much rather be us than them! 

Keep fighting, and look forward to serving next to you (and not getting beamed up) in the battles ahead!

Simon Rosenberg is a highly regarded political strategist and commentator with more than 30 years of experience in national politics and television news. He has built a new home for his political analysis, commentary, and live political discussions at Hopium Chronicles, an engaging new project on the Substack media platform.