The State Of Re-Districting A Year Out From 2024
With Democrats needing to flip just 5 seats to win back the House majority in 2024, how will the ongoing redistricting fights impact the outcome?
The Republican Party continues to demonstrate to the nation what handing them a House majority looks like. But as we look ahead to 2024, it is increasingly apparent that the next Congressional majority may well turn on House district line drawing—a matter for legislatures and courts, rather than for the voters themselves, to determine.
Typically, every ten years after each census is taken, district lines are redrawn to adjust for population shifts. Those lines are then used in the next Congressional election. In the most recent instance, the lines drawn after the 2020 census were used beginning in the 2022 election.
In the past year, legal challenges to those 2022 lines have resulted in an ever-shifting district landscape for 2024. As ABC News notes, the shifts are poised to benefit both parties depending on the state.
There was the Supreme Court’s surprise decision to uphold a ruling that overturned Alabama’s racial gerrymander, which is poised to benefit Democrats. Then, the North Carolina state Supreme Court issued a ruling that will benefit Republicans. Now, the New York district lines are in limbo, putting many GOP seats in doubt. In today’s piece, we will explore the current, unsettled state of redistricting a year out from next year’s pivotal election.
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ALABAMA
The most definitive news on the redistricting front ahead of 2024 is out of Alabama, where thanks to an unlikely ally—namely the U.S Supreme Court—Democrats are set to gain a Congressional seat.
After the 2020 census, Alabama Republicans initially drew a map with six majority White districts and one majority Black district, despite Black voters making up 27% of the electorate. A federal court then sided with voting rights advocates who challenged this blatantly unconstitutional racial gerrymander, ordering the legislature to draw a second Black majority district. Alabama then appealed this decision up to the Supreme Court, thinking they had a conservative majority on their side.
In a shocking decision this past June, Justices Roberts and Kavanaugh joined the three liberals in affirming the lower court’s decision that the Republicans’ racial gerrymander violated section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
As the ACLU puts it:
By packing and cracking the historic Black Belt community, the map passed by the state legislature allowed Black voters an opportunity to elect candidates of their choice in only one of seven districts even though they make up 27 percent of the voting-age population.
Importantly:
In its decision, the court also affirmed that under Section 2 of the VRA, race can be used in the redistricting process to provide equal opportunities to communities of color and ensure they are not packed and cracked in a way that impermissibly weakens their voting strength.
Even after being clearly ordered to redraw district lines, a ruling that was upheld by Trump’s Supreme Court, the Alabama legislature kept trying to worm its way out of drawing that second majority Black district. And no, not even the Supreme Court would come to their aide. So, in the end they had to concede defeat.
After a court-mandated special master proposed three district maps with a second Black majority district, earlier this month the federal court selected the map to be used, which is expected to net Democrats an additional House seat.
This chart breaks down how the new map will shift the state from 6R-1D to 5R-2D:
NORTH CAROLINA
Now, if Alabama’s redistricting wrangling skewed toward the Democrats ever so slightly, the same cannot be said for North Carolina.
The newest map from the Republican majority there could net Republicans 3 or possibly 4 seats in the 2024 election.
Republicans have taken North Carolina’s congressional maps from a 7D-7R map in 2022, which tracks perfectly with the 50%-50% split of the Congressional vote between the two parties in 2022…
…To a 10 or 11 R majority delegation versus just 3 or 4 Democrats.
You can see the seats that are impacted, according to Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman:
So, how did this outrageous move happen?
Back in 2021, the Republican legislature drew a gerrymandered map benefitting Republicans, which was promptly thrown out by the liberal-tilting state Supreme Court as the illegal gerrymander that it was. The court then proceeded to order a new map to be drawn.
As mentioned above, the partisan makeup of the Congressional delegation that resulted from this nonpartisan 2022 map (7D-7R) tracked with the even split among the electorate, with around 1.8 million voters supporting candidates of each party in the November midterms.
But after Republicans flipped the state Supreme Court in that very same 2022 midterm election, they took advantage, redrawing the map to their benefit knowing full well it would not get thrown out by a conservative majority court.
Or as Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson, whose seat is now being eliminated, posted on X:
“This is the majority party in the state legislature in North Carolina basically saying we want another member of our party in Congress, so we’re gonna redraw the map to take out Jeff.”
Democrats are expected to challenge the map on the grounds that it dilutes Black voting power and thus violates Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
According to Wasserman:
No matter what, Democrats and civil rights groups are certain to sue in federal court over Republicans' dilution of the 1st District, which has been a Black opportunity seat since 1992. Just as plaintiffs in Alabama convinced a federal court a GOP map there violated the Voting Rights Act by failing to draw an additional Black majority seat, plaintiffs could demonstrate it's possible to draw a Black majority seat in northeastern North Carolina.
NEW YORK
In the still-in-limbo category sits New York, which under the 2022 lines saw a mini red wave sweep through the state with the Congressional delegation going from 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans winning after the 2020 election, to a 15D-11R differential after the 2022 elections.
In other words: New York’s swing alone was enough to shift the House majority to Republicans.
The redistricting saga began when the Democratic legislature drew a pro-Democratic congressional district map in 2021. At that point, a state court struck it down and ordered a special master to redraw the districts to remove any partisan bias. That new version went into effect for the 2022 midterm elections, which famously gave us Rep. George Santos.
That result looked like this, per Wikipedia:
Now, the swing toward Republicans wasn’t entirely due to the maps, of course. There were many state-specific factors at play, which benefitted Republicans and were detrimental to Democrats. And to be sure, even if the maps stayed as they are for 2024, Democrats are likely to pick up at least a couple of seats in a more favorable environment.
But after the 2022 election, New York Democrats challenged the map, arguing that it was only meant to be a temporary fix. Republicans are predictably arguing that these lines, which are quite favorable to them, should remain for the entire decade. The New York Court of Appeals will hear the case in mid-November.
The good news for Democrats is that while this court is the same one that ruled against them initially, the make-up of the court may be more favorable now after the retirement of one of the majority justices, who was replaced by an appointee of Gov. Kathy Hochul.
And while the clock is ticking, there is enough time for that mid-November hearing to result in a new map being drawn in time for next year’s election.
As Wasserman notes, such a redrawn district could shift as many as six districts from R to D, turning the current 15D-11R state into 21D-5R.
WHERE OTHER STATES LAND
In Louisiana, a federal judge threw out Republicans’ 5R-1D map in 2022 on the grounds that it was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and ordered a new map drawn that would more fairly represent the state in which one-third of the population is Black. After the Supreme Court upheld section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in the Alabama case this summer, it was assumed that would mean a second majority Black district for Louisiana as well. But a federal appeals court sided with Republicans, pushing off a hearing on any court-ordered redraw to give Republicans more time to draw their own new maps. After the Supreme Court refused to intervene, it appears the GOP’s delay tactic may end up ensuring their 5R-1D map remains in place for 2024.
In Georgia, a federal judge just threw out the GOP-drawn map used in the 2022 election, finding that it violates Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and ordered a new map to be drawn by December 8th for use in the 2024 election. Assuming this decision survives expected appeals, this could mean an additional Democratic seat in metro Atlanta, taking the Georgia partisan breakdown from 9R-5D to 8R-6D.
In Ohio, a years-long battle to overturn GOP-drawn maps, which a Republican majority state Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional, has concluded with voting rights groups ending their challenge after state Republicans successfully ran out the clock. Not only was the unconstitutional map used in 2022, giving Republicans a 10r-5D advantage in the Ohio House delegation, but it will now continue to be used in 2024 (and presumably beyond.)
In New Mexico, Republicans accused Democrats of illegally gerrymandering districts to their benefit. After a state judge upheld the Democrats’ 3D-0R map, the state Supreme Court is set to hear the case.
In South Carolina, after a three-judge panel found that the current district map drawn by Republicans amounted to an illegal racial gerrymander, the case is before the U.S. Supreme Court.
In Utah, the state Supreme Court is currently hearing a challenge to the Republican-drawn gerrymandered congressional map there.
In Kentucky, Democrats have asserted that the Republican state legislature drew an “extreme partisan” map, diluting the impact of Democratic votes. It is set to be heard by the state Supreme Court.
In Florida, a state judge struck down Gov. Ron DeSantis’ map, which eliminated a Black majority district in northern Florida. The decision ruled that the gerrymander diluted Black voting power in contravention of voter-approved Fair District amendments. The map is currently being litigated but is expected to ultimately come before the Florida state Supreme Court, which is stacked with DeSantis appointees. But still, it could conceivably net Democrats an additional seat.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR 2024?
With just 5 seats needed to retake the House majority, the consensus seems to be that Democrats are favored to win back the majority and the Speakership in 2025.
More favorable maps in New York State alone would be enough to offset the redrawn maps in North Carolina, and the wins in Alabama and now Georgia could portend a few more seats for the Democrats across the South.
Even if the fights over gerrymandering result in a draw, there are 18 GOP members currently sitting in districts won by Joe Biden in 2020. And they all just voted to elect a MAGA anti-abortion anti-democracy Christian nationalist to be Speaker. Assuming turnout is strong again in 2024, many of those seats are likely to flip back to Dem.
In sum, with more favorable maps overall and expected higher turnout for the general, the wind is at the back of the Democrats to retake the House in 2024.
"[T]he wind is at the back of the Democrats to retake the House in 2024."
Let's hope so. Otherwise gerrymandered redistricting will have us facing tighter and tighter margins in the House of Republicans ... I mean Representatives ... every two years. I don't think the US can stand tiny Repub majorities that tend to favor extremists election after election.
Thanks for this. I was wondering how to to do a gerrymandering lesson for some CIS government students with the Alabama map determined. Looks like I can give them a number of choices from both sides to see if they can create more equitable maps.